Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition)

[Derec]

But Trump needs the party apparatus behind him.

As long as his delegates are loyal, it doesn't matter. If the RNC can strip delegates away, then Trump starts having a problem. This of course could lead to lawsuits.

Not to mention he could make good on his threat and run as an independent.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I don't think things are as cut-and-dry according to who leads in the polls. That's because there isn't anyone who yet has a majority, the GOP still has those roaming delegates, and this is a state-by-state competition. Another factor may be that when candidates drop, they may tell delegates to vote for so-and-so? If Trump makes enemies with all the other candidates and he is an enemy of the GOP establishment, that will hurt him. Does anyone know how well the candidates are doing in polling in the first few, say 5, states? Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, don't know the others...

 

[Sarpedon]

Fivethirtyeight has a very good analysis as to why it is not cut and dry, and a good rebuttal to my previous objection that Rubio won't win any early states, and how that matters:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...oaded-with-states-friendly-to-trump-and-cruz/

To sum up: early states are A. demographically more favorable to Trump and especially Cruz, and B. must award their delegates proportionally. This means, in order to win the nomination outright, Cruz has to absolutely dominate the early races, because he will get less of the later, winner take all states, states where establishment candidates have an advantage. However, the wildcard is still the perception of victory, where victories lead to other victories, even if the numbers say they are not inevitable.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I think the only certainty, is uncertainty. Iowa and New Hampshire are weeding primaries. People lose, not win necessarily. Third place matters the most in that one, though seeing where Trump stands will be of interest seeing how absurdly well he has done despite being a royal asshole.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

It will be interesting to see how the Trump support actually translates into votes.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

lots of people still say Rubio, but one good question I've heard people ask is "which early state will he win?" And the answer is probably none of them, as he's not first, or even second in any of them. That means he goes into Super Tuesday with no victories, and that is probably death. With Trump so far ahead in New Hampshire, I have a hard time seeing any establishment candidate winning an early state. This will give the establishment voters no clear leader to rally around on Super Tuesday, leading to a Trump/Cruz slug out.

I think its either Trump or Cruz. Marco is just too empty. Christie is too corrupt and liberal, Kasich is too late and Bush too oafish.

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

I predict that Trump will win most of the votes, but will still somehow not wind up the nominee. Some sort of funny business is going to prevent it. He will spend the next ten years complaining loudly about it, yet still being mostly a footnote. He will be used as an example, along with Gore, by a future candidate looking to fix the corrupt system.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It will be interesting to see how the Trump support actually translates into votes.

There are two tests for that, the Caucus and the Primary. I can see Cruz doing much better in a Caucus because that involves getting involved locally. You just go to a booth and vote in a Primary. So we'll see how Trump's voter support base exists in full after New Hampshire and Iowa are done.

lots of people still say Rubio, but one good question I've heard people ask is "which early state will he win?" And the answer is probably none of them, as he's not first, or even second in any of them. That means he goes into Super Tuesday with no victories, and that is probably death. With Trump so far ahead in New Hampshire, I have a hard time seeing any establishment candidate winning an early state. This will give the establishment voters no clear leader to rally around on Super Tuesday, leading to a Trump/Cruz slug out.

I think its either Trump or Cruz. Marco is just too empty. Christie is too corrupt and liberal, Kasich is too late and Bush too oafish.

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

I predict that Trump will win most of the votes, but will still somehow not wind up the nominee. Some sort of funny business is going to prevent it. He will spend the next ten years complaining loudly about it, yet still being mostly a footnote. He will be used as an example, along with Gore, by a future candidate looking to fix the corrupt system.

Trump supporters won't turn on him (you'd think... they have galvanized to Titantic Strength steel), but I think a good deal of Trump support may be the atypical voter, so that may give a little wiggle room for Cruz and Rubio and the "not certain yet" crowd.

What'd make for a fun end to his run is if he loses support because of speeches like he gave at Liberty University. When he tries to actually attempt to curry favor with a demographic, it looks very ugly.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I could tell that the bible is foreign to him when he said "in two corinthians..." instead of "in second corinthians..."

 

[SLD]

Bush is going to win it! George W. that is. I saw it on SNL!

SLD

 

[SLD]

lots of people still say Rubio, but one good question I've heard people ask is "which early state will he win?" And the answer is probably none of them, as he's not first, or even second in any of them. That means he goes into Super Tuesday with no victories, and that is probably death. With Trump so far ahead in New Hampshire, I have a hard time seeing any establishment candidate winning an early state. This will give the establishment voters no clear leader to rally around on Super Tuesday, leading to a Trump/Cruz slug out.

I think its either Trump or Cruz. Marco is just too empty. Christie is too corrupt and liberal, Kasich is too late and Bush too oafish.

Now the fun question: who will hitch their vice-presidential cart to the Cruz or Trump horse? Who would drink that poison?

I predict that Trump will win most of the votes, but will still somehow not wind up the nominee. Some sort of funny business is going to prevent it. He will spend the next ten years complaining loudly about it, yet still being mostly a footnote. He will be used as an example, along with Gore, by a future candidate looking to fix the corrupt system.

It would be a great outcome, possibly the best for us progressives. The alienation of the base would be complete and they would stay home in droves, giving the Senate and the Presidency to the Democrats. Maybe even enough for the house to turn blue. That might cause Trump to bolt and backfire on his pledge. I think they know that. Maybe it won't stop them, but it might utterly destroy the party and create mass defections to a new party called the Tea Party or something. Then the right would be split and the Repubs would become like the British Liberal party. That would be quite something! We could have decades of Democratic rule if that really happened. Maybe then we'll make some real progress.

SLD

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I could tell that the bible is foreign to him when he said "in two corinthians..." instead of "in second corinthians..."

Sanders made the same mistake when addressing a bunch of atheists and calling them baby eaters, not kitten eaters. *facepalm*

 

[funinspace]

My dart barely hits Rubio board slice. With the proportional delegate distribution for the early races, the changes the GOP made before 2012 should bear some interesting fruit this time. I’m still figuring the Trump support is weaker than the polling data suggest. I figure that the establishment Repugs will find a way in the next month to pull together behind one ‘electable’ candidate, and Rubio seems to be the only one left standing for them…

Another good article on the circus:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/2016-gop-primary-crazier-than-you-think-213542

An oddity of the 2016 race is the absence of a consensus establishment candidate this close to voting—especially since that candidate has won every contested primary since 1968. Even rarer is that no establishment candidate is within range of Trump and Cruz in Iowa or New Hampshire. Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and John Kasich can take some solace in remembering that Newt Gingrich won the 2012 South Carolina primary without first coming close in either Iowa or New Hampshire. But that’s far from guaranteed. The establishment’s weakness could provide a (rare) quick win for a candidate from the conservative or Trump lanes, or allow more candidates to win delegates so that the contest continues for longer than is historically the case. As a matter of simple math, the prospect of viable candidates from three ideological lanes rather than two increases the chances of a contested convention.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I find it odd that the Republicans modified the rules to prevent a '12 from happening again, and it is actually worse in '16 and more likely to be an even more prolonged primary that may not end until the Convention in... oh fuck, that's right... Cleveland.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

I find it odd that the Republicans modified the rules to prevent a '12 from happening again, and it is actually worse in '16 and more likely to be an even more prolonged primary that may not end until the Convention in... oh fuck, that's right... Cleveland.

Why do you find this odd? Do Republicans typically do things that make sense?

 

[Sarpedon]

I don't put much weight in the idea that the establishment can pull this off.

1. They haven't yet.
2. the Super Pac thing lets anyone with a pet billionaire stay in as long as they want. The party apparatus essentially has no power anymore, because their support means less than the big donors. The billionaires are all egomaniacs who view each other as competitors, thank god.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't put much weight in the idea that the establishment can pull this off.

1. They haven't yet.
2. the Super Pac thing lets anyone with a pet billionaire stay in as long as they want. The party apparatus essentially has no power anymore, because their support means less than the big donors. The billionaires are all egomaniacs who view each other as competitors, thank god.

So, Citizens United comes and bites the RNC in the ass. Go figure. They have created this perfect storm where Governor quitter Sarah Palin is standing on stage, ridiculing the media and the President, and offering her blessing to Trump, who then goes on to talk about how important Palin is in order to make the blessing mean anything.

Now if you can excuse me, I need to read from the book of P-salms.

 

[Sarpedon]

Oh, and also, Rubio seems like a really weak crutch to lean on. Not only has voter anger caused the establishment to have to discard the ones who ought to have been their strongest players, but there seems to be a lack of talent among the new people who they can turn to.

I've been informally calling this the "Republican War on Competence."

 

[Derec]

So both Christie and iCarly are out. Carson is probably still asleep because he should be getting out too.
So it's Trump vs. Cruz vs. Rubio/Bush/Kasich. The establishment better consolidate their support quickly or Trump might run away with it. And I think the best outcome for the establishment would be a brokered convention. I do not think any of the trio can win the nomination outright at this point. Perhaps Bush is the comeback kid. Still has a huge war chest, Rubio is wounded and Kasich might not play well outside a handful of states.

 

[Shadowy Man]

I find it odd that the Republicans modified the rules to prevent a '12 from happening again, and it is actually worse in '16 and more likely to be an even more prolonged primary that may not end until the Convention in... oh fuck, that's right... Cleveland.

They should just have the Cleveland Police pull up to the convention and pick a candidate in under two seconds.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

So both Christie and iCarly are out. Carson is probably still asleep because he should be getting out too.
So it's Trump vs. Cruz vs. Rubio/Bush/Kasich. The establishment better consolidate their support quickly or Trump might run away with it. And I think the best outcome for the establishment would be a brokered convention. I do not think any of the trio can win the nomination outright at this point. Perhaps Bush is the comeback kid. Still has a huge war chest, Rubio is wounded and Kasich might not play well outside a handful of states.

But given Bush's performance to date, would anyone really want to put their bets on him? How much of his money came early on compared to how much has been coming recently? I would be shocked if his cash wasn't front-loaded because giving money to him after seeing what his campaign's been like seems kind of odd to me. Rubio seems like last cycle's flavour-of-the-week type candidate whom everyone poked at for a bit before moving onto someone else because the problem with his being a frontrunner is that people started paying attention to him and that led them to find out that he's pretty damn pathetic. It's just that with Trump in it sucking up all the hot air this time around, nobody's really had an opportunity to do it. The Rubiobot thing isn't going away soon either. I have no opinion whatsoever on Kasich and he seems like the type of guy where that wouldn't change if I got to know more about him.

Basically, I think that the establishment GOP is fucked. They have nobody worth nominating, so the crazies have no reason to stand behind the party putting a Romney out there and losing again with a weak candidate they don't particularly like or support.