Who will be the 2016 Republican nominee? (Jan. 2016 edition)

[fromderinside]

But back on topic, this was a good, but not yuge, night for Trump. He won 7 states or so, solidified his delegate lead and most importantly the opposition failed to form around a single candidate. Divide et impera, as the Romans knew.
Ted Cruz, who won three states (and came second in a few others) and thus did very well, knows it too. In his speech he urged everybody to unite behind him to beat Trump.
Difficulties arise in that Rubio won Minnesota caucuses (Trump came third, the only of the night!) and came rather close to Trump in Virginia.
Even Kasich had some good news. He came close to denying Trump the win in Vermont and squeaked out a second place ahead of Rubio in Massachusetts. For both Rubio and Kasich March 15th, when their home states vote in winner-take-all contests, is do or die.
Only Carson could find no traction whatsoever. Is he still in there just as a spoiler for Cruz?
That the Republican field is still fractured can only benefit Trump. It is increasingly likely that the only way to stop Trump will be a brokered convention if he fails to win 50%+1 delegate outright. But if he shows up to the convention with say 45% of delegates and is denied that will not play well with his supporters.

Fortunately for us your analysis isn't helping.

 

[Derec]

Fortunately for us your analysis isn't helping.

Isn't helping what?

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

If Trump feels he is being robbed at a brokered convention, he might well split and make the GOP lose big. After all, if you are going to lose, why not take down your tormentors with you? And i suspect in private, if it looks like the establishment GOP looks like it is going to dump Trump, this is the message he will give them. You screw me, I screw you.
What will be interesting to see as this all develops, is what Trump supporters have to say to the GOP bigwigs on this issue. If there is enough threat to destroy the GOP if they screw their man Trump, that may make Trump the nominee.

The next big battle is Ohio in few days. Kasich vs Trump. If Kasich loses, he's out.

 

[Derec]

The next big battle is Ohio in few days. Kasich vs Trump. If Kasich loses, he's out.

Same can be said for Rubio in Florida. Both states vote on March 15th and both states are winner take all. Florida has 99 delegates, Ohio 66.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

The next big battle is Ohio in few days. Kasich vs Trump. If Kasich loses, he's out.

Same can be said for Rubio in Florida. Both states vote on March 15th and both states are winner take all. Florida has 99 delegates, Ohio 66.

Ya, if those delegates can be denied to Trump, it wil keep him under the 50% mark and he can be dumped at the convention and his damage to the Republican Party can be limited to this one election. If he gets them, it m and that the GOP is the Trump party and the damage to them will be generational.