Will there be war with Iran?

[Copernicus]

We are in the most dangerous period of the Trump presidency, and January 3 is the anniversary of the assassination that Trump ordered against former Quds head Qassem Soleimani. Iran has vowed revenge, and there have been indications that they are planning something big. With Trump at the head of the government, this would be the most opportune time to try to seek revenge. From Trump's perspective, it couldn't come at a better time, since chaos seems to be the only possible weapon he has against the impending inauguration of Joe Biden. That is, if he wants to, he could try to use emergency powers to call off the inauguration in case of a shooting war with Iran. Trump has already been ramping up our military posture in Iran, sending two B-52 bombers into the region and 30 armored vehicles to Iraq. He has also moved naval assets into position. Now he is cutting his golf vacation short to rush back to DC. I doubt that he could pull off a wag-the-dog operation against Iran without their help, but his provocative assassination of Soleimani last year has set the stage for a retaliatory attack. According to Woodward's book Rage, most of his advisors had warned against the assassination because of how provocative it would be, but they were ignored. The post-election assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the top Iran nuclear scientist, was another high-profile poke in their eye. So Iranian leadership may feel that this is the most opportune time for some kind of spectacular payback, giving Trump his opportunity to seize control of everyone's attention. Right now, the news media is half-asleep when it comes to this story.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon'

US sends dozens of armoured vehicles to Iraq ahead of Soleimani death anniversary

US flies B-52 bombers to the Middle East in show of force

Trump to return to Washington early ahead of Republican plan to disrupt certification of Biden's win

 

[ideologyhunter]

God I hope you're wrong. But with Trump, nothing is off the table, nothing is too deranged or immoral. He's been trying to overturn the election now for 7 weeks, and he sure isn't acting like he expects to be gone in three more weeks. We've had an acting secretary of defense since Nov. 9 -- what sense does that make? Well, it could make a lot of sense. Do we actually have a military that would refuse to take orders for a unilateral strike, coming out of the blue from a mentally ill man who is trying to turn his pathology into world history? Who the hell knows? There's the constant trope that Trump is really a coward, that he doesn't fire people in person, that he talks big but is pulled back from some of his most outrageous ideas when he's told they'll do him damage. But this is Trump with nothing to lose. And he would probably figure that he could pull it off bunker style, crafting his moves with a few zealots on staff and issuing orders without alerting Congress and letting the news drop after the fact. (Given how nuts he is right now, it is entirely possible that the Pentagon has opened some back channels to Congress that can be utilized if he attempts to start a war next month.) Fuck all MAGA enablers.

 

[bilby]

It takes two to tango.

Trump might be crazy, but the Iranians aren't.

Well, they are, but not crazy enough to do something that would obviously help Trump.

If Iran wants to strike against US forces or other US citizens and assets in their region, they will wait until President Biden has been sworn in. There's no benefit and lots of risk in acting now. Much of that risk can easily be mitigated by waiting three weeks, and Iran has already waited a year. Americans are hasty. Iranians are not.

 

[Derec]

We are in the most dangerous period of the Trump presidency, and January 3 is the anniversary of the assassination that Trump ordered against former Quds head Qassem Soleimani. Iran has vowed revenge, and there have been indications that they are planning something big. With Trump at the head of the government, this would be the most opportune time to try to seek revenge.

I disagree. The most opportune time would be right after inauguration. Trump might do something aggressive in response - Biden probably won't.

Trump has already been ramping up our military posture in Iran, sending two B-52 bombers into the region and 30 armored vehicles to Iraq.

B52? An elegant weapon, for a more civilized age ...

He has also moved naval assets into position. Now he is cutting his golf vacation short to rush back to DC. I doubt that he could pull off a wag-the-dog operation against Iran without their help, but his provocative assassination of Soleimani last year has set the stage for a retaliatory attack.

Soleimani had it coming though. And they already retaliated by shooting missiles into our base. If they do anything stupid now, we would be perfectly justified in fucking those weird beards up.

According to Woodward's book Rage, most of his advisors had warned against the assassination because of how provocative it would be, but they were ignored. The post-election assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the top Iran nuclear scientist, was another high-profile poke in their eye.

He was not only a scientist, but also a brigadier general in the IRGC, which has been designated as a terrorist organization. Besides, Iran has offered no evidence about any particular culprit, even though they blame Israel (but don't they always?)

So Iranian leadership may feel that this is the most opportune time for some kind of spectacular payback, giving Trump his opportunity to seize control of everyone's attention. Right now, the news media is half-asleep when it comes to this story.

The weird beards know that we can fuck up their regime with some well-targeted aerial attacks. Hit some government buildings in Tehran, known nuclear facilities and oil/gas processing facilities and the theocratic regime will be in very dire straits in no time. There is zero upshot for them to attack while there is a chance for a meaningful retaliation by us.

 

[funinspace]

Moving a few armored vehicles to Iraq (when we've pulled hundreds of soldiers out) is no more than static noise. The couple B-52's are for show, beyond bringing in some more missiles that we already have shitloads positioned in the area. Only the naval movements are significant, at least of what our military has said publicly.

Even if Clownstick could push Iran into some sort of shooting match, which would be devastating to Iran, it would fail to create any emergency within the US political sphere. So I don't see how such a possibility would change the current silly MAGA dynamics.

 

[Derec]

Moving a few armored vehicles to Iraq (when we've pulled hundreds of soldiers out) is no more than static noise. The couple B-52's are for show, beyond bringing in some more missiles that we already have shitloads positioned in the area.

If the pilot's good, see, I mean if he's reeeally sharp, he can barrel that baby in so low... oh you oughta see it sometime. It's a sight. A big plane like a '52... varrrooom! Its jet exhaust... frying chickens in the barnyard!

Even if Clownstick could push Iran into some sort of shooting match, which would be devastating to Iran, it would fail to create any emergency within the US political sphere. So I don't see how such a possibility would change the current silly MAGA dynamics.

No, I do not see it creating any sort of dire emergency in the US, Iranian threats notwithstanding.

What a shooting war with Iran would do though is make the Iran deal pretty much impossible for Biden to rescue. At the same time, it would give us a chance to destroy their nuclear facilities directly, because frankly, the Iran deal was a rotten one. It gave Iran sanction relief and only required them to pause their nuke program for 10 years.

 

[Copernicus]

It takes two to tango.

Trump might be crazy, but the Iranians aren't.

Well, they are, but not crazy enough to do something that would obviously help Trump.

I'm guessing that you don't really know how crazy they are, given that you started out saying that they weren't and then started to walk that thought back. Neither party is particularly rational, but I do think that the Iranian fanatics are more strategic in their planning and have very long memories when it comes to feeling insulted. This all goes back to the 1950s, when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected government and installed a brutal puppet regime in its place. It is most likely that Iran will use proxies to carry out their attacks, as they have in the past. Soleimani was one of the masterminds behind those attacks. We can be confident that Trump does not plan to use tactical nukes to retaliate, can't we? It's hard to say, since he recently shook up the Pentagon and installed some loyalists in their place. Don't forget that Shiites dote on martyrdom. It is a core feature their religious culture. Trump's stooges are probably giving him just the kind of advice now that he has longed to hear. Trump had hired Mattis and Bolton, because he thought they were up for more aggressive moves in places like the Middle East, but they turned out to be wimps in his eye. His Saudi friends have long been trying to draw him into direct conflict with Iran. So he may relish the idea of handing Biden the mess that he never quite managed to get going during his disastrous four-year tenure.

If Iran wants to strike against US forces or other US citizens and assets in their region, they will wait until President Biden has been sworn in. There's no benefit and lots of risk in acting now. Much of that risk can easily be mitigated by waiting three weeks, and Iran has already waited a year. Americans are hasty. Iranians are not.

Any direct strike will be met with force, whether under Trump or Biden. Iran is far more likely to use proxies and maintain that they had nothing to do with the events. They don't want to get involved in a regional war, but they could easily miscalculate, just as Trump miscalculated when he had Soleimani assassinated, despite warnings against it from just about everyone around him. There would be less satisfaction in carrying out the attack after Biden is there. This is about revenge, and the US is arguably at the weakest point it has ever been in modern times. Trump has hollowed out the US government and installed incompetent stooges in the military hierarchy. He has severely strained ties with allies and thrown everyone into uncertainty over what the US goals are in that region. If the intent is to cause maximum confusion and chaos in Washington, this is the time to do it.

 

[funinspace]

Well the poker game with El Cheeto just got a tiny bit hotter; evidently SK has frozen around $6.5-9 billion in Iranian funds in 2 of their banks at the request of the US:
https://asiatimes.com/2021/01/south-korea-sends-destroyer-after-iran-seizes-tanker/

South Korea has redeployed a destroyer from anti-piracy duties in the Gulf of Aden to the Straits of Hormuz after a Korea-flagged tanker was seized by seaborne units of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on Monday.

Revolutionary Guards aboard armed speedboats seized the tanker HK Hankuk Chemi on Monday afternoon, Gulf-time, citing environmental and chemical pollution by the vessel,

<snip>

There is speculation in the South Korean media that the vessel may have been seized in response to the freezing of Iranian assets in South Korea. The assets are being held at the behest of ally the United States.

The timing of the Revolutionary Guard action looks planned. On January 3, according to Iranian media The Tehran Times, Iranian-South Korean negotiations were imminent on the assets, with the head of the South Korea-Iranian Chamber of Commerce suggesting a barter deal between the two countries to resolve the issue.

 

[Derec]

IRGC have always been a terrorist organization.
Now they are also engaging in piracy.

 

[Jarhyn]

It takes two to tango.

Trump might be crazy, but the Iranians aren't.

Well, they are, but not crazy enough to do something that would obviously help Trump.

I'm guessing that you don't really know how crazy they are, given that you started out saying that they weren't and then started to walk that thought back. Neither party is particularly rational, but I do think that the Iranian fanatics are more strategic in their planning and have very long memories when it comes to feeling insulted. This all goes back to the 1950s, when the CIA overthrew the democratically elected government and installed a brutal puppet regime in its place. It is most likely that Iran will use proxies to carry out their attacks, as they have in the past. Soleimani was one of the masterminds behind those attacks. We can be confident that Trump does not plan to use tactical nukes to retaliate, can't we? It's hard to say, since he recently shook up the Pentagon and installed some loyalists in their place. Don't forget that Shiites dote on martyrdom. It is a core feature their religious culture. Trump's stooges are probably giving him just the kind of advice now that he has longed to hear. Trump had hired Mattis and Bolton, because he thought they were up for more aggressive moves in places like the Middle East, but they turned out to be wimps in his eye. His Saudi friends have long been trying to draw him into direct conflict with Iran. So he may relish the idea of handing Biden the mess that he never quite managed to get going during his disastrous four-year tenure.

If Iran wants to strike against US forces or other US citizens and assets in their region, they will wait until President Biden has been sworn in. There's no benefit and lots of risk in acting now. Much of that risk can easily be mitigated by waiting three weeks, and Iran has already waited a year. Americans are hasty. Iranians are not.

Any direct strike will be met with force, whether under Trump or Biden. Iran is far more likely to use proxies and maintain that they had nothing to do with the events. They don't want to get involved in a regional war, but they could easily miscalculate, just as Trump miscalculated when he had Soleimani assassinated, despite warnings against it from just about everyone around him. There would be less satisfaction in carrying out the attack after Biden is there. This is about revenge, and the US is arguably at the weakest point it has ever been in modern times. Trump has hollowed out the US government and installed incompetent stooges in the military hierarchy. He has severely strained ties with allies and thrown everyone into uncertainty over what the US goals are in that region. If the intent is to cause maximum confusion and chaos in Washington, this is the time to do it.

Maybe we could just extradite Trump to Iran to stand trial, ya?

Then, there is no need for retaliation, and we have one less problem to deal with.*

*We may even get a shiny extradition treaty out of the deal. Who knows?

 

[RVonse]

Right now, the news media is half-asleep when it comes to this story.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon'

US sends dozens of armoured vehicles to Iraq ahead of Soleimani death anniversary

US flies B-52 bombers to the Middle East in show of force

Trump to return to Washington early ahead of Republican plan to disrupt certification of Biden's win

If CNN or the other propaganda outlets aren't blabbering on about any of this, its just a conspiracy theory. You've got your tin foil conspiracy hat on right now. Just ask Jimmy Higgins if you don't believe me.

 

[Elixir]

Right now, the news media is half-asleep when it comes to this story.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon'

US sends dozens of armoured vehicles to Iraq ahead of Soleimani death anniversary

US flies B-52 bombers to the Middle East in show of force

Trump to return to Washington early ahead of Republican plan to disrupt certification of Biden's win

If CNN or the other propaganda outlets aren't blabbering on about any of this, its just a conspiracy theory. You've got your tin foil conspiracy hat on right now. Just ask Jimmy Higgins if you don't believe me.

If Trump doesn't try to attack Iran, it will be because it doesn't seem to Stephen Miller that doing so would help the chances of preventing Biden's swearing in and Trump retaining power.
Trump is a cornered rat and will do anything - ANYTHING - that his handler(s) submit as possibly helpful to his coup attempt, regardless of the cost to anyone or everyone else.

 

[Jarhyn]

Right now, the news media is half-asleep when it comes to this story.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh: Iran scientist 'killed by remote-controlled weapon'

US sends dozens of armoured vehicles to Iraq ahead of Soleimani death anniversary

US flies B-52 bombers to the Middle East in show of force

Trump to return to Washington early ahead of Republican plan to disrupt certification of Biden's win

If CNN or the other propaganda outlets aren't blabbering on about any of this, its just a conspiracy theory. You've got your tin foil conspiracy hat on right now. Just ask Jimmy Higgins if you don't believe me.

No. You have it wrong. The thing about Trump is that when he does something or has an idea he thinks is sneaky, he accuses others of it while he builds his plan to do it himself to foment a "both sides" narrative.

He accused Obama of wanting to start a war with Iran to maintain power. He thought Obama could do that and that it would have a chance of working.

I guess though if someone's been loudly fingering themselves in the ears screaming LA LA LA, though, trends like this ca occasionally escape notice

 

[ZiprHead]

Iran Issues Interpol Arrest Request For President Trump Over Top Military Assassination

Iran has issued a “red notice” request to international police organization Interpol seeking the arrest of U.S. President Donald Trump and 47 other American officials for the role it says they played in the assassination of top general Qassem Soleimani in early 2020, a move that coincides with the anniversary of Soleimani’s death.

 

[laughing dog]

Trump is a chickenshit bully. He would not start a war with anyone. Even if the he ordered some action that might provoke a over-reaction from Iran, he is too chickenshit to stand up to what he did. Moreover, if Iran thinks the Biden administration will be more amenable to getting a nuclear deal, it would not risk it by doing something incredibly incendiary.

 

[Jayjay]

I think Iran is playing the same kind of games it did back in 1979. It's part of the regime's mythos. I think they will keep the Korean hostages and keep enriching uranium until Biden takes office, then they'll stop (okay, maybe they'll continue with the enrichment part but won't boast about it) as a last middle finger to Trump. Just like they did with Carter back in the day.

 

[funinspace]

I think Iran is playing the same kind of games it did back in 1979. It's part of the regime's mythos. I think they will keep the Korean hostages and keep enriching uranium until Biden takes office, then they'll stop (okay, maybe they'll continue with the enrichment part but won't boast about it) as a last middle finger to Trump. Just like they did with Carter back in the day.

I'd say this is far closer to the game the UK and Iran played back in 2019; and very little like the 1979 hostage crisis. It only took a couple months for the UK to work out a face saving solution for both sides. SK was a willing participant in the unilateral US economic warfare with Iran, by seizing Iranian funds. Iran is playing payback at SK to get their funds back, as well as poking El Cheeto in the eye. The irony is that the US is so caught up on Clownstick's futile effort to steal the US presidential election and the Georgia Senator elections, that our media is almost not paying attention.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49849718

On 4 July, UK forces seized the Iranian tanker Adrian Darya-1 - previously called Grace One - on suspicion of breaking EU sanctions on Syria.

After its release, the US blacklisted the vessel, pledging to impose sanctions on any buyer of the 2.1 million barrels of Iranian crude oil on board.

Iran announced in September that the ship had sold its cargo, prompting UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab to summon Tehran's ambassador to the Foreign Office.

Why was the tanker seized?
The Stena Impero was passing through international waters in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that connects the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, on 19 July when it was detained by Iran's Islamic Revolution Guard Corps.

 

[TomC]

I sincerely hope that Biden's team is hard at work on getting the peace deal back on track.

And he'll have the clout on Capitol Hill to get it done.
Tom

 

[J842P]

Trump is a chickenshit bully. He would not start a war with anyone. Even if the he ordered some action that might provoke a over-reaction from Iran, he is too chickenshit to stand up to what he did. Moreover, if Iran thinks the Biden administration will be more amenable to getting a nuclear deal, it would not risk it by doing something incredibly incendiary.

Maaaaan I think you are making a lot of unfounded assumptions about how Trump would act. It's not like he would be on the front lines of a War. Chickenshits starting wars isn't exactly an unprecedented phenomenon.

 

[Jarhyn]

Trump is a chickenshit bully. He would not start a war with anyone. Even if the he ordered some action that might provoke a over-reaction from Iran, he is too chickenshit to stand up to what he did. Moreover, if Iran thinks the Biden administration will be more amenable to getting a nuclear deal, it would not risk it by doing something incredibly incendiary.

Maaaaan I think you are making a lot of unfounded assumptions about how Trump would act. It's not like he would be on the front lines of a War. Chickenshits starting wars isn't exactly an unprecedented phenomenon.

I mean just yesterday he incited a mob of armed terrorists who premeditated terrorist acts (they brought pipe bombs and zip ties, which clearly signal a premeditated intent to commit kidnapping and hostage taking as well!) to attempt an insurrection.

I absolutely think he would attempt to start a war right now except for the fact that the 25th is currently in the process of being invoked.

25>45? Seems to be so.