Will WWIII Break Out?

[SLD]

Or put another way, can the war in Ukraine be contained?

I see a couple of ways it might happen.

1) Poland supplies MiG-29’s to Ukraine, and Russia decides that is an act of war, and attacks Poland.
2) Ukrainian success due to Western logistic supplies forces Putin to hit those supply lines in Poland, hoping that NATO will back down.
3) Putin pushes beyond Ukraine and into Moldova and just keeps going, drunk with his perceived success and thinking that the Western Europeans won’t react because of oil and gas needs.
4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.
5) Putin, frustrated at battle losses, goes full scale genocide, and the west finally decides to intervene and drive them back.

But perhaps the war could be contained. I think the best case scenario is that Russian losses on the battlefield, and even full blown set backs, may cause the military to balk about further escalation and they force Putin out or a few even pull a Stauffenberg. The loss of three Russian generals, and likely losses of 6000 soldiers (it‘s a lot more than 500) may create such a mindset. The Russians may have to start worrying about the loyalty of their own troops soon. Trust me, war sucks.

 

[Elixir]

Yup. I can definitely see Pootey committing the international equivalent of suicide by cop. If he continues to commit genocide, there will come a point…

 

[steve_bank]

History says anything can happen when it comes to us emotional irrational humans.

What seems new is the scale of global response to Putin. If we all get through it without a war this will be a major turning point in history. I have to believe he seriously underestimated the response.

It may come down to whether or not Putin is a cold psychopath with no feeling for fellow humans, or he has some empathy for his fellow Russians. He is a killer as we know. Opposition figures abroad and Russian reporters.

At the end Hitler ordered a scorched Earth policy on his own country rather than hand it over to the Allies.

This is what NATO was built for.

The short answer for me is I do not know. You would think destroying all that has been accomplished post WWII seems illogical, but we are not logical.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Putin wants to Make Russia Great Again. You look at Ukraine and Belarus and that would add a great deal of territory between Russia and the West. Moldova?! No. I still think the trouble revolves around humanitarian aid being shut down by Russians.

The idea of Putin attacking Poland wouldn't be wise in the least. That would escalate this substantially and there would be consequences.

 

[steve_bank]

I listned to Putin speaking today, an attempt at invoking Russian patriotism for a heroic battle in Ukraine.

I am no psychologist, but it seems like it is about a sense of inferiority. He is trying to present himself as a peer to Europe and the USA.

If Europe is divided and NATO weak I have no doubt Putin would attack the Baltic states. My guess is he took a small step into the border area and waited to see the NATO response which was non existent. Then he moved into Ukraine in force.

Putin has been trying to divide the EU and the USA through social media. His goal is clear.

 

[southernhybrid]

I think it's obvious that Putin is a sociopath, totally incapable of empathy. I've read that he really isn't being given an accurate picture of what's going on in this attack on Ukraine. His loyal ass kissers are telling him what he wants to hear, so I don't think any of us know whether this will escalate and other countries will become involved directly, or if it will fizzle out of if Russia and Ukraine will come to some type of agreement that allows Putin to falsely claim that he won he accomplished defeating the Nazis in Ukraine. He's a sick fuck! He projects a lot, is narcissistic and isolated from the truth. Sort of like when a person gets all of their news from News Max or Fox. It's scary. That is for sure.

Too much chimp. Not enough bonobo.

I'm just glad that Biden is president instead of that narcissistic jerk that had no clue how to govern.

 

[Gospel]

WWIII has been in development since Hitler offed himself and Russia is just one of the most recent beta testers. It's a bunch of proxy wars all over the globe with the superpowers being allies for one thing and enemies for another thing with roles constantly on the shift. Every superpower is jockeying for position while leveraging the lesser folk for their own benefit. The lesser folk (AKA Countries) don't really give a damn which big dawg gives them financial aid and weapons to help thwart their enemies they only ask that you keep WWIII in beta test and never actually release the full version to the public.

But one day, some idiot (not Putin) will decide it's ready for the public. By then we'd have figured out how to colonize mars so the elites will just hop on their dick-shaped rockets and blow this place to bits from the comfort of their personal space yacht.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

But one day, some idiot (not Putin) will decide it's ready for the public. By then we'd have figured out how to colonize mars so the elites will just hop on their dick-shaped rockets and blow this place to bits from the comfort of their personal space yacht.

I think you're missing the AGI in the room. Suppose for example that the Chinese government gets there first. Then there is no WWIII, just global Chinese hegemony essentially forever - no one else is allowed to ever get there -, and resistance is futile (unless the thing pulls a Skynet on us, in which case resistance is still futile). Now if Alphabet does it first, who knows?

 

[laughing dog]

Both WWI and WWII started in Europe, so it is a good bet that if there is a WWIII, it will start in Europe.

Interestingly, in WWI, Russia came to the aid of Serbia after the Austria-Hungary invasion which them prompted Germany to declare war on Russia.

In WWII, Russia initially was allied with Hitler's Germany.

So Russia has been in the thick of both world wars.

 

[Keith&Co.]

By then we'd have figured out how to colonize mars so the elites will just hop on their dick-shaped rockets and blow this place to bits from the comfort of their personal space yacht.

Fat chance of that. Everything in space is held together by very expensive bubble gum that's constantly being chewed by ground support. Hundreds of people in ground support.
An indicator light doesn't work. Is it the light or the system it's supposed to display? Or power to the didplay? Are we inches from death or just a few feet away, as long as no one uses the #3 toilet during daylight? Two people per question inbthe prints, two in the diagnostic software, three searching to see if we spared the light, four trying yo decide where to get the light if we haven't got a spare, one talking spaceguy thru the troubleshooting e'd be doing if he was up there.
And four guys in the mock-up pretending they made the same problem appear.
Spaceguy is thd pointy end of a huge, huge stick.

And none of the elites really want to plunge a toilet down here, they're gonna die if a zero-gravity one has an issue.

Houston, where do we keep the spare diapers?
Spare? What did you do with the one you had?
I, um, used it.
They're not disposable, Ted, you have to clean it.
Oh. Eugh. Well, uh, let's pretend that wasn't an option anymore...

 

[TomC]

Both WWI and WWII started in Europe, so it is a good bet that if there is a WWIII, it will start in Europe.

By "Europe" what you meant was Christendom, right?
Tom

 

[Gospel]

I'm just glad that Biden is president instead of that narcissistic jerk that had no clue how to govern.

I wonder what that would have been like. Here's my guess:

Trump would have taken the position that Ukraine as a farmer part of Russia needs to have its leadership work with Putin for the security of both countries.
Nato (what a joke they are really. Sad) needs to focus on paying their fair share of policing the world instead of getting involved in a war
He'd be sympathetic to Russia because they are just protecting themselves from the Nazi regime embedded in Ukraine
He'd praise bordering countries for their handling of the refugee crisis with an incomplete sentence only to drone on about the democrats impeding his wall
There would be a lot of closed-door phone calls with Putin and meetings between ambassadors for CNN to crow about while Fox screams nothing-burger 24/7

Edit: Still would not have been a WWIII kick off though.

 

[steve_bank]

The Axis was Japan, Germany, and Italy. The war in the Pacific started before Pearl Habor was attacked.

 

[rousseau]

My guess is that with WWII in recent memory, efforts will be made to avoid this happening.*

*could be completely wrong

 

[bilby]

My guess is that with WWII in recent memory, efforts will be made to avoid this happening.*

*could be completely wrong

That's what they said in 1938.

It's a similar situation now; NATO could kick Russia's arse today, as their clear lack of competence and capability is there for all to see.

But.

That won't last; Amongst the 'all' who see it are Putin, and he is going to demand improvement. Heads will (maybe literally) roll; It's gonna take a while, but Russia's armed forces will eventually be dragged up to a standard sufficient to go toe-to-toe with NATO. If Putin is given time to get them there.

Just like in 1938, when WWI was fresh in European minds, and appeasement seemed a better option than war, there's a genuine fear that provoking the aggressor might lead to the use of WMDs on cities.

In 1938, it was gas - known to be devastating from the horrors of its use in the last world war.

Today, it's nuclear bombs - also known to be devastating from their use in the last world war.

Ultimately, there came a point when Britain and France couldn't avoid war any longer, despite the risk of mustard gas or phosgene being used against Paris or London. And despite Hitler's psychopathy, megalomania, and looming defeat, he never deployed chemical weapons against enemy nations - neither tactically, nor strategically - because deterrence works.

I seriously doubt that Putin would use nuclear weapons against NATO forces or nations. He knows that an hour and a half later, his empire, and his precious hide, will be a sea of radioactive glass.

Even at the very end, Hitler didn't order the use of gas against allied forces. Or if he did, the order was ignored by his Generals as the insane and suicidal escalation it would have been.

I don't see a nuclear war as likely at all; But a big conventional war is a real probability - and the later we get started, the bigger it's going to be.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.

I think this scenario is very unlikely. There have been a decent number of incidents in the cold war of shots being fired at units that entered enemy territory. The military people on both sides understand what happened and it never goes beyond words even when the intrusion was deliberate.

(On the other hand, just how sane is Putin?)

 

[SLD]

4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.

I think this scenario is very unlikely. There have been a decent number of incidents in the cold war of shots being fired at units that entered enemy territory. The military people on both sides understand what happened and it never goes beyond words even when the intrusion was deliberate.

(On the other hand, just how sane is Putin?)

True. But it’s never been this tense before.

 

[bilby]

4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.

I think this scenario is very unlikely. There have been a decent number of incidents in the cold war of shots being fired at units that entered enemy territory. The military people on both sides understand what happened and it never goes beyond words even when the intrusion was deliberate.

(On the other hand, just how sane is Putin?)

True. But it’s never been this tense before.

That's a joke, right?

I mean, you have heard of the Cuban Missile Crisis, at least, surely?

That was far from the only major point of tension in the Cold War. The CMC was before my time, but I can certainly recall several times in the '70s and '80s when things were very tense indeed. This is small potatoes by comparison.

 

[Trausti]

This is small potatoes by comparison.

It is, and the West should make ever effort that it remain so.

 

[SLD]

4) Accidentally, such as Russian air incursions in a tense situation result in someone shooting someone down and all hell breaks loose. Pilots do get lost sometimes.

I think this scenario is very unlikely. There have been a decent number of incidents in the cold war of shots being fired at units that entered enemy territory. The military people on both sides understand what happened and it never goes beyond words even when the intrusion was deliberate.

(On the other hand, just how sane is Putin?)

True. But it’s never been this tense before.

That's a joke, right?

I mean, you have heard of the Cuban Missile Crisis, at least, surely?

That was far from the only major point of tension in the Cold War. The CMC was before my time, but I can certainly recall several times in the '70s and '80s when things were very tense indeed. This is small potatoes by comparison.

I think this is far worse than the Cuban missile crisis. This is on par with Germany’s invasion of Poland.