fromderinside
Mazzie Daius
- Joined
- Oct 6, 2008
- Messages
- 15,945
- Basic Beliefs
- optimist
Ah the rubber meets the road analogy.
As soon as one can accurately predict it.Is there an accepted method to determine when it is sound to think that coincidences aren't random? I'm talking in every day life, where things happen without lab conditions, and the mind makes connections between things in a free form way. We all know the mind loves to make connections, but is there a point where one can say, "aha! there is some unseen link?" because sometimes there is, isn't there?
She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.Probability can be a harsh mistress. Something associated can be just coincidental.
You only said that because it's a full moon.
Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
Lions are 99% water and the last percent doesn't do anything. So lions are really nothing more than the Moon's bitches.She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
More people are attacked by lions the night after the full moon than on any other day in the lunar month. This is a real and measurable effect; And it has a reasonable explanation. Can you guess why this should be the case?
At what point do coincidences stop being coincidences?
That's the last cigarette you're smoking...At what point do coincidences stop being coincidences?
Never.
Although it may take some time before someone recognizes that some causal events are actually causal.
ALAN TURING
While we develop a system for
determining how much intelligence
to act on. Which attacks to stop,
which to let through. Statistical
analysis. The minimum number of
actions it’ll take to win the war,
but the maximum number we’re able
to take before the Germans get
suspicious.
STEWART MENZIES
You’re going to trust this all to
statistics? To maths?
ALAN TURING
Correct.
JOAN CLARKE
And then MI-6 can come up with the
lies we’ll tell everyone else.
ALAN TURING
We’ll require a believable
alternate source for each piece of
information we use.
JOAN CLARKE
A false story that exlains how we
got that information, that has
nothing to do with Enigma. And then
you’ll need to leak those stories
to the Germans.
ALAN TURING
And the rest of our military.
..........
IN HUT 8: Peter and Hugh each decrypt a message, placing TWO
BLUE PINS on the board, and then one RED. They look to Alan:
Two British ships, and they can only save one of them.
Alan runs a statistical analysis of their options. We see KEY
WORDS: “LIKELIHOOD OF DETECTION,” “CASUALTIES,” “MATERIAL
LOSSES” interspersed with mathematical equations. Alan places
his results into a GREEN FOLDER.
GOD
Bender, being God isn't easy, if you
do too much, people get dependent. And
if you do nothing, they lose hope. You
have to use a light touch, like a safecracker
or a pickpocket.
BENDER
Or a guy who burns down the bar for
the insurance money.
GOD
Yes, if you make it look like an electrical
thing. When you do things right, people
won't be sure you've done anything at
all.
Lions can't hunt during the full moon because they are hiding from the weirwolves. So by the night after the full moon they haven't eaten for quite a while and will attack anything eatable.She is absolutely right, except that last 2% actually represents 85% of what controls us. So while the moon effects us because we are 98% water (despite the fact the moon is always running around the Earth, regardless of how much reflected light we see), it actually only counts for about 15% of our actions.Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
More people are attacked by lions the night after the full moon than on any other day in the lunar month. This is a real and measurable effect; And it has a reasonable explanation. Can you guess why this should be the case?
The problem is not with the proposition that the Moon's gravity affects the human body. The problem is finding a control group farther away from the moon.Probability can be a harsh mistress. Something associated can be just coincidental.
You only said that because it's a full moon.
Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
I mean, maybe they should take that newscaster for a control. She seems to be living on the moon.The problem is not with the proposition that the Moon's gravity affects the human body. The problem is finding a control group farther away from the moon.Probability can be a harsh mistress. Something associated can be just coincidental.
You only said that because it's a full moon.
Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water. You can't argue with logic like that.
The surest way is to flip a coin.Is there an accepted method to determine when it is sound to think that coincidences aren't random? I'm talking in every day life, where things happen without lab conditions, and the mind makes connections between things in a free form way. We all know the mind loves to make connections, but is there a point where one can say, "aha! there is some unseen link?" because sometimes there is, isn't there?
More people are attacked by lions the night after the full moon than on any other day in the lunar month. This is a real and measurable effect; And it has a reasonable explanation. Can you guess why this should be the case?
Well, I heard a newscaster on one of the local stations a while back explain that of course the moon affects us. It causes the tides, she said, and we're 98% water.