TLDRI take it that you will retract your post since you obviously didn't read the criteria, "It must not predict a likely event".A valid prophecy must meet several criteria:
- It must actually be a prophecy. Not a documentation of events that is misinterpreted as a prophecy after a similar event occurs later.
- It must be written before the events that it predicts.
- The predicted events must actually occur.
- The prediction must be both falsifiable and verifiable.
- It must not be overly vague.
- It must not predict a likely event.
- It must not be self-fulfilling.
- Must be timely (must give a time frame for fulfillment) <- My addition
If that's your test for valid prophesies, we are drowning in them.
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, China will have a bigger population than Kansas."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, IBM will not declare bankruptcy."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, it will rain in some parts of the world."
Example: "I predict that tomorrow, 29 February 2023, the Dow Jones Industrial Average will go either up or down."
If those aren't examples of what you mean by valid prophecy, then you need additional criteria.
How much this website would be empty if people bothered to actually read what is written....or write something relevant to the topic.
Retract my post? I don't see that as warranted.
I need to correct, clarify, refine, not retract.
I made a mistake. I missed one of the criteria, as you helpfully point out.
So I need to come up with predictions that satisfy the criterion, "It must not predict a likely event."
"Likely," means the odds are more that 50%, right?
So, if somebody predicted in 2005 that Obama would become president, that would satisfy the criterion, yes?
Yet, I assume, there were dozens or hundreds of people making that prediction. I believe it common for political supporters to overstate their confidence.
Do you consider that a valid prophesy?
How about if somebody bets black on a roulette table, and then, while the wheel is spinning, cries out, "Black, black, it's going to be black!"
That's a valid prophesy?
If we consider your criteria, this exclamation at a roulette table would seem to be a perfect example of a valid prophesy.
Is it really the sort of "prophecy" you're trying to identify?
I doubt it.
So let me offer another example:
Suppose an actual god (Loki, say) tells me that Scott Adams, creator of the Dilbert Comic strip, will be our next president. I make the public pronouncement: "Scott Adams will be the next president."
And suppose further that Loki insults Ganesha, who therefore resurrects Abraham Lincoln and arranges for him to become our next president.
Do you really think my pronouncement wouldn't be a valid prophesy just because it didn't come true?
My point, and I do have one, is that I don't think your criteria point to the sort of things you want them to identify.
I'd like you feedback on this.
The thread is over, I got the answer to my question.