If Trump wins reelection, will there be a civil war?

[Jimmy Higgins]

Without women and minorities? Sure, that's entirely possible.

And not only is he losing women, he's losing Hispanics as well. And quite frankly, it's not just that he's losing them; he's alienating them, meaning that they'll be more likely to actively vote against him.

That's if he makes it to 2020.

I personally hope he does. Rather than a political removal process, I would like to see his removal by the plainly-expressed will of the people. I also think the people who voted for him ought to drink every last drop of their mistake and enjoy every misdeed and shitty policy of his.

But they won't vote against him. That's because of laziness. Without a candidate to vote for, lazy people will be the reason for low voter turnout. That's why Hillary lost.

People who go up against Trump lose. He could lose (and lose big), but that requires an aligning of things that just won't materialize.

Clinton lost because Trump convinced enough people to give them gold for some magic beans that would bring back manufacturing jobs.

 

[Jolly_Penguin]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

There have been many eruptions of such outcry. There just aren't any right NOW because while we all generally think that it should be abolished, there are other more pressing matters to attend o such as the GOP coup

Aren't these two issues intertwined? Fixing the electoral college and gerryrigging would make such coup far more difficult to pull off.

And so long as the USA has the Electoral College, why does anybody take "Americans Spreading Democracy" or Americans standing for Democracy seriously? It isn't a value your country holds dear quite obviously.

 

[phands]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

Well, there has been much outcry over the years, but the orange nazi has, in totally typical fashion, gone back on his prior opinion, and now supports the EC.

 

[whollygoats]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

Well, there has been much outcry over the years, but the orange nazi has, in totally typical fashion, gone back on his prior opinion, and now supports the EC.

Yeah, well....The reason the Electoral College was established was an attempt to prevent exactly what Hamilton thought wrong with the direct election scheme....The Electoral College failed to do what it was erected to do. As a constitutional mechanism, it does not work.

 

[Opoponax]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

That's because of the practical impossibility of it. Do you seriously think that e.g. Wyoming is going to admit that their electoral votes shouldn't carry 3.5 times the weight of each California vote? Throw in the Dakotas, Montana, Idaho, etc. and the rest of the red states, and it's a waste of time to even bring it up.

Democrats have to win by big margins while the GOP can still win by losing.

Seems fair.

 

[Opoponax]

It is the follow up thread and opposite of the Trump Outrage Fatigue thread I started earlier.

So far we've had one poster here respond by saying they want NYexit and Calexit to pick up steam. Do we think the Republicans would let them separate peacefully from the union?

I think the right wing base would love to see them go.

The base would for sure love to see California leave the Union. They're really that fucking stupid. It sticks in their ignorant craw that we're the 5th largest economy in the world, yet also one of the most diverse and liberal states. They make up shit statistics that they tell to each other and it becomes their gospel that California's economy is in a nightmare state.

The Calexit thing was sketchy as hell from the start and has pretty much died anyway. IIRC, if they gathered enough signatures, it would've been on the ballot for this coming election. It is not on the ballot for this coming election.

Personally, I'd like to see California, Oregon, and Washington secede, and maybe even Nevada. But that's nothing less than a fantasy.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There have been many eruptions of such outcry. There just aren't any right NOW because while we all generally think that it should be abolished, there are other more pressing matters to attend o such as the GOP coup

Aren't these two issues intertwined? Fixing the electoral college and gerryrigging would make such coup far more difficult to pull off.

So what is your question again? Was it, why doesn't the GOP support amending the Constitution so it wins fewer elections? Because that sounds like a dumb question.

And so long as the USA has the Electoral College, why does anybody take "Americans Spreading Democracy" or Americans standing for Democracy seriously? It isn't a value your country holds dear quite obviously.

In general, the electoral college had worked with minimal bumps. Trump's victory was the first of its kind in our history, where razor thin margins in a few states led to a significant electoral vote victory... despite losing the overall popular vote by millions. Even when Gore lost to W, but won the popular vote it was very close both with the Electoral College and the Popular vote.

Regardless, it isn't getting repealed. The smaller population states won't allow it.

 

[whollygoats]

It is the follow up thread and opposite of the Trump Outrage Fatigue thread I started earlier.

So far we've had one poster here respond by saying they want NYexit and Calexit to pick up steam. Do we think the Republicans would let them separate peacefully from the union?

I think the right wing base would love to see them go.

The base would for sure love to see California leave the Union. They're really that fucking stupid. It sticks in their ignorant craw that we're the 5th largest economy in the world, yet also one of the most diverse and liberal states. They make up shit statistics that they tell to each other and it becomes their gospel that California's economy is in a nightmare state.

The Calexit thing was sketchy as hell from the start and has pretty much died anyway. IIRC, if they gathered enough signatures, it would've been on the ballot for this coming election. It is not on the ballot for this coming election.

Personally, I'd like to see California, Oregon, and Washington secede, and maybe even Nevada. But that's nothing less than a fantasy.

It's a fantasy that those of us in the Pacific Northwest have nurtured since Ernest Callenbach's Ecotopia novel was released the year I graduated from university.

Cascadia, the bioregion, continues as a fanciful political concept.

Sorry, nax, but ever since southern Californians floated the idea of diverting the Columbia River in an attempt to slake the thirst of insatiable Fornicator water wasters, I've not been particularly sanguine about forced political links with that neck of the woods. We'll take Humboldt County and north and leave you with San Francisco, the Silicon Valley, Sacramento and points south. Feel free to footsy with the Nevadans, but I suspect that if you go your way, the nascent state of Deseret will be knocking at your door at locales like Reno. Those Morons, they've had this agenda since before they got to the Great Salt Lake.

It would seem to me that Joe Taintor's musings upon the collapse of complex societies would postulate that the peripheral subunits would separate as it became evident that the old center could not meet the local needs and, indeed, was a detriment to positive living. It would most likely begin with passive non-cooperation and erection of alternate structures of governance.

 

[fast]

There are those that will vote regardless. It's those that wouldn't otherwise vote that matters. If those have someone they want to vote for, they'll vote, but many people who wouldn't otherwise vote was neither positively moved by Trump nor Hillary and stayed home. If there is no second coming to move the otherwise voters, it's going to take unbridled hatred of Trump to Trump their laziness.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

There are those that will vote regardless. It's those that wouldn't otherwise vote that matters. If those have someone they want to vote for, they'll vote, but many people who wouldn't otherwise vote was neither positively moved by Trump nor Hillary and stayed home. If there is no second coming to move the otherwise voters, it's going to take unbridled hatred of Trump to Trump their laziness.

Can you actually back this up, or are you just going to repeat it every time?

 

[Lion IRC]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

It's delivered more Democrat presidents than Republicans

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Without women and minorities? Sure, that's entirely possible.

Yet, the GOP has seen gains with Republican women since the Kavanaugh thing. It is surreal! But we saw this after the video came out with Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women.

And not only is he losing women, he's losing Hispanics as well. And quite frankly, it's not just that he's losing them; he's alienating them, meaning that they'll be more likely to actively vote against him.

If you have some polls on the women, I'd like to see them.

Trump polled 54% amongst all women in Nov 2016.

Fast-forward to May 2018:

Source: http://www.people-press.org/2018/05...t-americans-are-critical-of-his-conduct/9-13/ There were more recent polls, but none nearly so trustworthy as Pew, to my mind. They generally supported Pew's data.

That's if he makes it to 2020.

I personally hope he does. Rather than a political removal process, I would like to see his removal by the plainly-expressed will of the people. I also think the people who voted for him ought to drink every last drop of their mistake and enjoy every misdeed and shitty policy of his.

It all comes down to the courts. The conservatives will vote for any guy that'll put far right wing justices on the bench.

I agree. They've shown all the conviction of a flag atop a flagpole. That's why I hope the pig farmers in Iowa go broke and lose their farms, why the Harley-Davidson employees who voted for him in Wisconsin go on unemployment, and so on. Sometimes we have to learn our lessons the hard way. I hope the soybean farmers here in Texas repent in leisure for the votes they cast. If that makes me hard-hearted, I could not care less.

They cannot blame me, but I sure can blame them for foisting this tin-pot banana-republic wannabe on me. I can blame them for the further and quicker erosion of my rights. I can blame them for saddling my son's generation with another few trillion dollars in debt.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

A civil war would end the USA in a massive bloodbath because of the sheer idiocy of the gun laws.

An alternative - hopefully a preferable one is for sane states to stop paying for insane ones by putting CalExit and NYExit (at least) into effect. Leave all the insane xtian states to annihilate themselves and each other, and stop subsidizing them.

The precedent has already been established that secession justifies a civil war; this happened in the 19th century.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

It's delivered more Democrat presidents than Republicans

Plurality of the popular vote in last 7 elections: Dems 6, Republicans 1.
Winners of electoral vote in last 7 elections: Dems 4, Republicans 3.

- - - Updated - - -

Yet, the GOP has seen gains with Republican women since the Kavanaugh thing. It is surreal! But we saw this after the video came out with Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women.

If you have some polls on the women, I'd like to see them.

Trump polled 54% amongst all women in Nov 2016.

Fast-forward to May 2018:

Source: http://www.people-press.org/2018/05...t-americans-are-critical-of-his-conduct/9-13/ There were more recent polls, but none nearly so trustworthy as Pew, to my mind. They generally supported Pew's data.

Yeah, but that gap tightened up during the Kavanaugh confirmation.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

Yeah, but that gap tightened up during the Kavanaugh confirmation.

It may well have, but then we need to ask who will be more energized to vote: Republican women who've gotten what they wanted, or Democrat women who've lost big? And that's not even counting how the confirmation process has struck female victims of sexual abuse. Look, the two women who confronted Flake in the elevator: that action by two people provoked a week's delay. If you think those are the only two outraged rape survivors out there, I have to respectfully disagree.

But they won't vote against him. That's because of laziness. Without a candidate to vote for, lazy people will be the reason for low voter turnout. That's why Hillary lost.

I think now that women see what was predicted in 2016 is actually unfolding (and so close to the mid-terms!), they'll make a big splash. Trump has foisted many hostages to fortune upon his Republican supporters they must either defend or disavow -- and neither option is palatable to them.

The difference between 2016 and now is that in 2016, the demonstrations didn't start until 9 Nov. This year, they're already happening in the run up. This demonstrates energy and determination.

People who go up against Trump lose. He could lose (and lose big), but that requires an aligning of things that just won't materialize.

We'll agree to disagree, and at least one of us will work to help his dismissal from office. If 2016 taught anyone anything, it's that complacency is dangerous in the political process. If you want something you have to fight for it.

 

[Worldtraveller]

... and the Electoral College which even the orange nazi is on record saying is a bad thing.

But where is the outcry to get rid of it? *crickets*

It's delivered more Democrat presidents than Republicans

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unite...ons_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote

There have been five United States presidential elections in which the winner lost the popular vote including the 1824 election, which was the first U.S. presidential election where the popular vote was recorded.[1] Losing the popular vote means securing less of the national popular vote than the person who received either a majority or a plurality of the vote.[2][3]

1824: John Quincy Adams - * (neither party really existed in anything remotely resembling modern definitions)
1876: Rutherford B. Hayes - Rep
1888: Benjamin Harrison - Rep
2000: George W. Bush - Rep
2016: Donald Trump - Rep

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It may well have, but then we need to ask who will be more energized to vote: Republican women who've gotten what they wanted, or Democrat women who've lost big?

If young women come out in big numbers, then things are looking good.

Honestly, after 2016, I had a much lower faith in the American electorate. And less than two years into this abomination of the Presidency, I have no faith left in the conservative voter, based on polling of Trump's approval.

The mid-terms is all about turnout. And we won't know until election day evening.

 

[whollygoats]

It may well have, but then we need to ask who will be more energized to vote: Republican women who've gotten what they wanted, or Democrat women who've lost big?

If young women come out in big numbers, then things are looking good.

Honestly, after 2016, I had a much lower faith in the American electorate. And less than two years into this abomination of the Presidency, I have no faith left in the conservative voter, based on polling of Trump's approval.

The mid-terms is all about turnout. And we won't know until election day evening.

It took until 2016? How long have you been in the game? I lost faith in the electorate ages ago.

And, no....We won't know until the day after election day, when all the votes have been counted.

Remember, it's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

It may well have, but then we need to ask who will be more energized to vote: Republican women who've gotten what they wanted, or Democrat women who've lost big?

If young women come out in big numbers, then things are looking good.

Honestly, after 2016, I had a much lower faith in the American electorate. And less than two years into this abomination of the Presidency, I have no faith left in the conservative voter, based on polling of Trump's approval.

The mid-terms is all about turnout. And we won't know until election day evening.

Can't argue with this. And I've been wrong before ... unbelievable, I know.

 

[whollygoats]

It's delivered more Democrat presidents than Republicans

Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

Heh...Evidently not.

It seems to be his SOP.