Search results for query: American Samoa

No, you failed to understand what I was saying. Your source has three charts, all of which show the same basic pattern--approximately a straight line decline from the start to about 2005. The homicide and total charts are noisier than the suicide chart but follow the same pattern. Your...

You mean the Australia where you can't detect any long term alteration in the murder rate due to their gun laws? Murder was declining, it continued to decline. Block out a window around the law change and you just see a gap in the line.

The unemployment generally shows up in the next economic downturn.

And when there is a serious crackdown expect most gig jobs to disappear.

DoorDash etc do not have minimum wage because they are gig work.

...population (the sample is minimum wage increases, not the number of minimum wage workers) and we have only one high level data point: American Samoa. The whole medical and nuclear fields try very, very hard to minimize exposure to radiation levels that have never been shown to be associated...

You are on the side proposing action being taken, the burden is on you to show it's safe. Just because you don't like what it says doesn't mean it's not applicable. Normally politicians have enough sense to avoid minimum wage increases big enough to cause noticeable effects--but what I was...

American Samoa. When taken to an extreme it causes readily observable harm. There is no reason to think there's a no-harm threshold. Note that most regulation of hazardous material is based on observations of extremes and harm normally can't be measured anywhere near the permitted exposure...

Except we have one "ghost" in the can: American Samoa. They clearly exist.

Red herring. I presume you have no actual rebuttal.

Please note the title of this thread. An assertion that MW does not kill jobs. That's a claim of proving a negative--I'm simply pointing out that the data is utterly inadequate to prove this. It's like proving normal speech can't be understood by trying to listen to someone on the flight deck...

...ability to detect job loss due to minimum wage increases is incredibly noisy and under normal conditions only able to detect overwhelming signals. American Samoa had a much larger percent of the economy effected, it produced a signal that was not only detectable statistically but actually...

1) American Samoa says it kills jobs. 2) Basic economics says it kills jobs. Thus the burden of proof is on the side that claims it's harmless.

Where has it been pointed out that the American Samoa data is wrong?? And just because something is undetectable doesn't make it not a problem. Suppose HIV had emerged 50 years earlier--completely undetectable by the technology of the era, would that have avoided all the deaths?? We are...

American Samoa. It most certainly did. What I'm saying is that the detection limits are incredibly coarse and incapable of seeing even large signals. It takes something like American Samoa to rise above the detection threshold.

An increase in the minimum wage below market clearing price has zero effect good or bad. Why are you even bringing it up other than to disrupt the discussion? Yeah, American Samoa. That's the only data point we have.

...is how elastic the response is. It is certain that the effect is not zero, all these studies prove is that it's below the detection threshold. However, the nature of the available data means the detection threshold is beyond anything we will actually see except in extreme cases (American...

We have one clearly non-zero data point: American Samoa. It most certainly killed jobs. We have many "data" points where it would be impossible to observe anything but a huge change. These are conveniently misinterpreted as saying the value is zero, but that's not what they really say. All...

It's simply a matter of degree, not of kind. Bigger change, bigger harm. That doesn't mean a small change causes no harm even if you can't detect it above the noise floor.

There's no reason to reject it as bad data, it's just that it's majorly inconvenient for those who argue for the null. The Samoa case is obviously not a null, you don't need statistics to see that. A straight line is inherently a perfect fit because we have effectively only two data points...