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2024 - Is there only one swing state?

Jimmy Higgins

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There has been a lot of questions regarding the upcoming election. Are Americans that insane to vote for Trump after a failure of a Presidency and trying to steal an election? Will Lara Trump put the RNC in self-destruct mode in an attempt to elect Trump in 2024? How will states vote?

Biden won AZ and GA which were huge steals in the 2020 election. It, however, reminds me of Obama winning Indiana and being close in Montana. We didn't see that followed up in 2012. So maybe, just maybe, while there are ingredients in the soup for taking Florida and Arizona (abortion and marijuana) and Abrams magic in Georgia, perhaps we should consider that there is only one swing state in the US in 2024.

pN8r2


Looking at the map above, it is hardly controversial. Historically, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are locks for the Democrats. And with questions arising in the south about sustainable support, all the more reason to not consider those three states swing states and consider them wall states and treat them like wall states and plaster the heck out of them with campaigning. This leaves us with Nevada. We take the wall and Nevada, sanity wins in 2024. I think it is wise to force Trump to spend heavily in expensive Florida. I think the Democrats there should push not Biden, but the Senate race and the Referendums and let the General Election chips fall as they may. Arizona, I think they need to push all three equally, as there is a much better chance in Arizona than Florida.

So force the Trump to waste money in places he is supposed to win, to also help reduce incursions into the North. And campaign in Nevada very strongly as it is somewhat Nevada or bust. I can't see losing Nevada but winning Arizona (though I suppose the referendum could make that possible).
 
The problem with your logic is in thinking that we have precise values.

I do believe the referendum is going to be relevant as it will get out the D voters. The previous measure (decades ago, pre-internet) that stripped the legislature of the power to make abortion law sure pissed off the Republicans but I don't know what it did about getting out the vote. It's very telling that the Republicans don't want abortion put to the vote.
 
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