Canada federal election 2021

[blastula]

Coming soon on September 20.

I don't know much about this, except for the little I learn from the Canadaland podcast. On the surface, I do see obvious comparisons to yesterday's California recall election. While Newsom and Trudeau have similar political styles, they came to these two elections from opposite ends. Newsom didn't want the election, had no choice, and yet he might came out of it stronger than before. Trudeau deliberately chose this election, thinking he could make gains, but it's looking like he is going to be losing seats, going by the projections at 338Canada. One criticism I heard is that of hypocrisy by Trudeau and the LPC for having previously argued against holding elections during ongoing covid, and yet calling for this one.

Anybody, especially Canadians here, have any thoughts about it?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In Canada, elections are typically won and lost with the voter split. At the moment, the fringe right-wing of politics in Canada (People's Party) is threatening to pull away some of the Conservative Party vote. The Liberals are jockeying with the NDP for the left wing vote. The NDP has often lost elections for the Liberals nationally. They are a third party that really wants to be a first party, but lack that final bit to get them over the top. The Liberals... I don't know, I get the feeling they desperately need to not become what the Labor Party in England has become. Elections in Canada generally come down to:

• Ontario, which represents 106% of the seats in the House of Commons. This is a big place when a few points in the poll could swap a seat to the Conservatives. If the Conservatives make gains in Ontario, they'll win power.
• Quebec. The French people swing from the local party to the Liberals. The Conservatives rarely do well here.
• Maritimes. This used to be NDP safe territory, but currently it is very Red (Liberal). This could be a seat swap for the NDP which would harm the Libs
• BC.. The NDP holds as many seats here as the Libs. So this could work in the Libs favor for gains.

Polling has been problematic in recent elections, and I think with the splintered vote and everything being riding to riding, it gets hard to gauge what will happen. The Libs could win or lose every seat 40-39-21. Libs are currently favored, but it really is hard to tell.

I also wouldn't say Newsom and Trudeau have similar political styles. Trudeau is the left-wing George W. Bush, son of an actual statesman pretending to be a statesman.

 

[crazyfingers]

I don't know a lot about Canadian political parties. My wife tells me that the current Premier of Ontario is a mini Trump.

 

[rousseau]

When people are mad at the Liberals the Conservatives get voted in, and vice versa. And like clockwork there is always strategic voting (the NDP is considered a wasted vote). The NDP does have a solid following but the Liberals are our natural ruling party. We're a centrist country: we care about social well-being, but also the strength of the economy which makes the NDP seem like unrealistic idealists.

And in my experience many NDP followers seem to mirror the Conservative following, big on ideas but short on realism or substance.

All in all our parliamentary system makes it such that most of the time power is spread out over our various parties, which makes it harder for oblivious politicians to do stupid things. But occasionally the Conservatives get a majority and we regress, which is even scarier now as the quality of our Conservative parties is declining.

 

[rousseau]

I also wouldn't say Newsom and Trudeau have similar political styles. Trudeau is the left-wing George W. Bush, son of an actual statesman pretending to be a statesman.

I heard it said well a few years ago: he's a good front-man. He can stand in front of people and speak confidently / eloquently. I don't know that he's all that smart himself, but he's a good lead. Whereas Singh quite often projects lack of confidence and know-how.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Canada sweeps the Canadian Election.

The Liberals appear to have broken even or gain/lost a few seats, and will maintain a minority Government. At the moment, the NDP seems to be gaining the most, but only a handful of seats, from the Conservatives. The Conservatives utterly failed to make any move into the GTA (Grand Theft Auto, I think).

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Maxine Bernier got his ass handed to himself. Third place I think in his riding.

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/MaximeBernier/status/1439949193443950597?s=20[/TWEET]

Woosh.