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House Speaker drama llama

 
 
 
lpetrich

lpetrich

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Speaker in waiting? Rapid rise of Hakeem Jeffries fuels talk | TheHill
The unflappable head of the House Democratic Caucus has emerged as a fiercely disciplined party spin doctor, proficient in promoting the Democrats’ ambitious agenda and attacking President Trump in cataclysmic terms, often in the same breath.

To get him off message would amount to a coup.

Yet the four-term lawmaker has climbed quickly through the ranks in part by taking strategic political risks that bucked the party establishment even as he was rising through it. Jeffries challenged an incumbent in his first run for Congress; endorsed a long-shot presidential candidate over his home-state senator in the 2008 primary and defeated a popular veteran Democrat to win the caucus chairmanship last year.

His rapid ascension has sparked talk that Jeffries, 48, is in line to succeed Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) whenever she chooses to bow out. If he reaches that pinnacle, Jeffries would make history as the nation’s first African-American Speaker.

...
Jeffries, a former corporate lawyer, ruffled plenty of feathers in the left-leaning caucus in defeating Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), a liberal institution and feminist trailblazer, for the party chairmanship in 2018 — a razor-close contest that led to charges from Lee and some of her closest allies that ageism and sexism were at play.
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Back in late 2018: Pelosi Agrees to Deal Limiting Her Speakership to 4 Years - Roll Call
She may be re-elected Speaker late this year, but if she does, that means that she will quit in 2022.

I looked further and I found Leadership | house.gov
  • Speaker: Nancy Pelosi
  • Democratic Party
    • Majority Leader: Steny Hoyer
    • Majority Whip: James Clyburn
    • Assistant Speaker: Ben Ray Luján
    • Democratic Caucus Chairman: Hakeem Jeffries
  • Republican Party
    • Minority Leader: Kevin McCarthy
    • Minority Whip: Steve Scalise
    • Republican Conference Chairman: Liz Cheney
    • Republican Policy Committee Chairman: Gary Palmer
Hakeem Jeffries's predecessor as DCC was Joe Crowley, but he was primaried by AOC in 2018. JC was also a rumored potential speaker, as HJ now is.
 
Pelosi holds firm grip on power as Dems dream of a sweep - POLITICO - "The speaker will coast to another term — but won't say if it's her last."
Nancy Pelosi may be the most powerful congressional leader in modern U.S. history.

In the 22 months since she’s returned to the speaker’s chair — an enormous achievement in itself — Pelosi has centralized power in an unprecedented way. It’s due not just to her own maneuvering, but to a variety of circumstances: a chaotic president, a paralyzed Senate, and a national health emergency that’s spurred the most serious economic crisis in decades.

For many Democrats, Pelosi is the face of the resistance to President Donald Trump. From clashes over government shutdowns to impeachment to yelling matches in the White House and publicly tearing up a copy of his State of the Union address, Pelosi has been Trump’s chief antagonist. There have been acrimonious relationships between presidents and House speakers before, but never one so public or so bitter. It’s been over a year since the two have spoken.

“My experience with the president is that he has, really, almost a historic lack of knowledge about the issues and the legislative process,” Pelosi told POLITICO in an interview on Friday. “He has no relationship, no affiliation with fact, data, truth or evidence. And he has a very small view of the future.”
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She's right about that, I'm sure.
 
NP has raised $193M for Democrats in this election season, and $961M since 2002.
“I would agree with you that she is most certainly the strongest [speaker] in modern times, and could very well be ever,” said Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.). “I would say that I do think she’s the most consequential speaker ever.”

Pelosi’s rise to the speakership came at a time when the role of the office changed and became much more visible nationally. Sam Rayburn, the legendary Texas Democrat, was speaker for far longer, but he worked more in the background than Pelosi does. Tip O'Neill, the iconic Massachusetts Democrat, clashed furiously with President Ronald Reagan, although he also had to contend with powerful committee chairs. In the Pelosi era — thanks in part to changes instituted under Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) — there is no other power base within the body.
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The leader of the House Republicans, Kevin McCarthy (R-CA):
“Time and again during this crisis, the Speaker has overplayed her hand and wasted precious time to help Americans," McCarthy said in a statement. "This failure isn’t a new paradigm. Her career is marked by absolutism. If the media ever questions it, she lashes out. If she senses a threat from her own members, she keeps them home. The Speaker is consumed by internal power plays at the expense of getting things done."
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The three top leaders of the House are very old. NP: 80, Jim Clyburn: 80, Steny Hoyer: 81.
While Pelosi is firmly ensconced in the speaker's chair, there is speculation about possible successors whenever she does leave. The list includes Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), the Democratic Caucus chair; Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a major player in Trump's impeachment; and Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.), whose national profile rose during the police reform debate, among others.
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Pelosi Reelected House Speaker By Democrats Despite Election Losses : NPR

She was re-elected without opposition to a fourth term.
Other top Democratic leaders — Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, D-S.C. — who are 81 and 80 — also ran unopposed and were approved by the caucus to serve in those roles next year. House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries of New York did not face any competition for his post as the fifth-ranking leader and was reelected on Wednesday.

For the fourth-ranking post, assistant speaker, Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark defeated Rep. David Cicilline of Rhode Island.

Rep. Cheri Bustos, D-Ill., who ran the House Democrats' campaign arm, said she would not run for another term. Reps. Tony Cardenas of California and Sean Patrick Maloney of New York are vying for the position, which will be decided later this month.
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Pelosi suggests she’ll serve her last term as speaker - POLITICO
If, in fact, this will be Pelosi’s last two years as speaker — once again, under a Democratic president — it would be a fitting denouement for a woman who became the first female House speaker in history in 2007 and then reclaimed the top post in 2018 after being discounted by critics, consolidating the power of the speakership this Congress in a way not seen in decades.
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Mac 🍽 on Twitter: "Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman refused to commit to voting for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. Force the vote. Let’s do this. https://t.co/xLCiQBiKjE" / Twitter

They said that they want to consult with their communities before voting on her being Speaker for another term.

Mac 🍽 on Twitter: "(New Video): Cori Bush & Jamaal Bowman Want Concessions Before Giving Pelosi Speakership

In this one we discuss @CoriBush and @JamaalBowmanNY supporting demanding concessions before voting for Nancy Pelosi as speaker. FORCE THE VOTE!

(links)" / Twitter

"Force the vote" is for forcing a vote on a Medicare for All bill.

Commentator Jimmy Dore has proposed that AOC pressure NP into holding a M4A vote as a condition for her re-election as Speaker. AOC didn't think it worth doing - she wasn't sure that M4A has the votes to pass the House. She prefers focusing on such things as who heads committees.
 
Nancy Pelosi got re-elected House Speaker.
The House is now at D 222, R 211, with two seats vacant. One of them is NY-22, still contested, and the other was vacated by the death of Luke Letlow, R-LA-05.

The total attendance for this vote was apparently D 221 R 209, with a total of 430, meaning 216 for a majority.

Of the Democrats present, 216 voted for NP, with 5 Democrats defecting. Thus giving her a borderline victory. The Democratic defectors voted:
  • Jared Golden ME: Sen. Tammy Duckworth IL
  • Conor Lamb PA: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries NY
  • Mikie Sherrill NJ, Elissa Slotkin MI, Abigail Spanberger VA: "present"
AS said about her vote: "In a time marked by historically low trust in our government, new voices are necessary to moving forward and achieving real progress."

None of the defectors had voted for NP back in 2019.

AOC didn't vote when her name was first called, though she later voted for NP. From Politico:
“We are just an extremely slim amount of votes away from risking the speakership to the Republican Party,” said Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who in the past has been vocal about the need for transition to new leadership but voted for Pelosi Sunday. "It's bigger than any one of us."
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All 209 of the Republicans voted for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
 
Secular Talk on Twitter: ".@AOC @CoriBush and @BLeeForCongress all didn’t vote for Pelosi for speaker 👀👀 https://t.co/iaTNnwmg9C" / Twitter
Then a snippet of someone callong AOC's name about 3 times.

Eskaver on Twitter: "@KyleKulinski @AOC @CoriBush @BLeeForCongress Cuellar, Lee, Mastsui, McGovern, Richie Neal, AOC and Bush have abstained. (?)

Golden voted Duckworth. Lamb voted Jeffries.

214 has to be reached to be speaker. Seems like it won’t be reached." / Twitter

Eskaver on Twitter: "@KyleKulinski @AOC @CoriBush @BLeeForCongress *Update: With the amount of absentions and “present” votes, the final number may have changed.

Last group is up and we will find out, likely Pelosi as Speaker regardless of abstains and present votes." / Twitter


Leter:
Secular Talk on Twitter: "Anndddddd now they all voted for her." / Twitter

Secular Talk on Twitter: "Some arcane rules bullshit where they voted for her at the end. They were holding out for something and we don’t know exactly what" / Twitter

Eskaver on Twitter: "@KyleKulinski A lot of people don’t understand the rules.

The number wasn’t 218, but absolute majority of those present—214. Then, you account for “present” and absentions, etc.

Pelosi in 18 allowed for those votes to allow some centrists of her caucus to vote as they wished." / Twitter

Eskaver on Twitter: "@KyleKulinski Aside: That’s why I also talked about some of this stuff in Force the Vote talks.

The required forced vote required majority signature/support for a discharge petition.

I looked it up. Nobody seems to look up these processes and rules." / Twitter
 
Jamaal Bowman & Cori Bush both voted for NP.

I looked back to 2019, and I found
From the 4-years story, "In exchange for Pelosi backing the proposal, Reps. Ed Perlmutter of Colorado, Linda T. Sánchez of California, Bill Foster of Illinois, Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, Filemon Vela of Texas and Tim Ryan of Ohio, as well as California Rep.-elect Gil Cisneros, have all agreed to drop their opposition to her speaker bid."
 
The 2019 vote:
  • Rep. Nancy Pelosi D-CA: 220, all D
  • Rep. Cheri Bustos D-IL: Joe Cunningham D-SC, Jared Golden D-ME, Mikie Sherrill D-NJ, Abigail Spanberger D-VA
  • Rep. John Lewis D-GA: Ron Kind D-WI
  • Rep. Joe Kennedy III D-MA: Conor Lamb D-PA
  • Rep. Stephanie Murphy D-FL: Ben McAdams D-UT
  • Rep. Marcia Fudge D-OH: Kurt Schrader D-OR
  • Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-IL: Jason Crow D-CO, Max Rose D-NY
  • Fmr VP Joe Biden: Anthony Brindisi D-NY
  • Fmr GA Gov Cand Stacey Abrams: Kathleen Rice D-NY
  • Rep. Kevin McCarthy R-CA: 192, all R
  • Rep. Jim Jordan R-OH: 5, all R
  • Rep. Thomas Massie: 1, all R
  • Present: Jim Cooper D-TN, Elissa Slotkin D-MI, Jeff van Drew D-NJ
  • Not Voting: Brenden Jones, R-NC
 
I decided to check on the ideology scores of these Reps: Report Cards for 2019 - Ideology Score - All Representatives - GovTrack.us The scores go 0 (liberal) - 1 (conservative)

The 15 Democrats who voted against NP:
  • Rep. Cheri Bustos D-IL 0.34 -- Joe Cunningham D-SC 0.52, Jared Golden D-ME 0.44, Mikie Sherrill D-NJ 0.40, Abigail Spanberger D-VA 0.48
  • Rep. John Lewis D-GA 0.18 -- Ron Kind D-WI 0.46
  • Rep. Joe Kennedy III D-MA 0.20 -- Conor Lamb D-PA 0.39
  • Rep. Stephanie Murphy D-FL 0.41 -- Ben McAdams D-UT 0.45
  • Rep. Marcia Fudge D-OH 0.20 -- Kurt Schrader D-OR 0.42
  • Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-IL 0.26 -- Jason Crow D-CO 0.33, Max Rose D-NY 0.41
  • Fmr VP Joe Biden -- Anthony Brindisi D-NY 0.53
  • Fmr GA Gov Cand Stacey Abrams -- Kathleen Rice D-NY 0.37
  • Present -- Jim Cooper D-TN 0.34, Elissa Slotkin D-MI 0.38, Jeff van Drew D-NJ 0.55
All of them were relatively conservative, and they include all 5 Democrats who voted against NP this year.

Here are the 5 D's who voted against NP this year, with their votes in both years:
  • Jared Golden ME -- Rep. Cheri Bustos IL -- Sen. Tammy Duckworth IL
  • Conor Lamb PA -- Rep. Joe Kennedy III D-MA -- Rep. Hakeem Jeffries NY
  • Mikie Sherrill NJ -- Rep. Cheri Bustos IL -- present
  • Elissa Slotkin MI -- present -- present
  • Abigail Spanberger VA -- Rep. Cheri Bustos IL -- present
 
Looking at NP's challengers in 2019, I find

Ed Perlmutter D-CO 0.33, Linda Sanchez D-CA 0.22, Bill Foster D-IL 0.30, Seth Moulton 0.31, Filemon Vela D-TX 0.41, Tim Ryan 0.31, Gil Cisneros D-CA 0.31

Moderate to conservative Democrats.


Erik Wasson on Twitter: ".@AOC on vote for Pelosi : “in a time when the Republican Party is attempting an electoral coup and trying to overturn the results of our election, this is not just about being united as a party. It's about being united as people who have basic respect for the rule of law.”" / Twitter

She herself responded:
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: "Our Party should remember and prioritize the communities that delivered this House, which are poor and working class and black and brown. And we should do that by delivering material changes for working people." / Twitter
 
Democrats Prepare for Future Without Pelosi, Jeffries Seen As Successor: Report
  • With Speaker Nancy Pelosi's expected exit from leadership, Democratic leaders ponder the future.
  • House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries is seen as the favorite to succeed Pelosi.
  • Democrats have had the same leadership team in the top three positions for almost 20 years.

...
But with the 2022 midterm elections in sight, Pelosi, 81, is expected to leave her post at the end of the current Congress, with Democrats anticipating a leadership shift that may define their party for years to come as a new generation takes hold, The Washington Post reported.

For as long as Pelosi has led the caucus, Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, 82, has served as both the majority leader and minority whip, while Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, 81, has been the majority whip and the party's assistant Democratic leader.
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Reminds me of the last years of the Soviet Union, with its very aged leadership.

When Pelosi steps down, Hakeem Jeffries is expected to become House Democatic leader - The Washington Post - "House Democrats begin preparing for the post-Pelosi era"
Whoever replaces Pelosi will face the daunting task of presiding over the increasingly tense debate about whether Democrats will be the party of the activist left or of a center-left coalition that can appeal to a broader segment of America in the struggle with an ever more populist and nationalistic Republican Party.

It’s a debate that is already raging as Democrats scramble to rescue the main pillar of Biden’s agenda that would expand education, health-care and climate change programs and has led to deep acrimony between liberal and centrist members about what the party has promised voters and what it will actually deliver.
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Democrats eager to fill power vacuum after Pelosi exit | TheHill - Nancy Pelosi has pledged to end her time as Speaker this year.

I think that she is likely to keep that promise, because she's getting old, and she may want to spend more time with her ice cream.

The #2 and #3 Democrats are more iffy - Majority Leader Steny Hoyer MD and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn SC.
Ready to seize the opportunity to rise in the ranks are the three leaders seated just below Clyburn: Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.), Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.), the caucus vice chairman.

While there are sure to be others in the mix vying for leadership spots — some early speculation surrounds Rep. David Cicilline (D-R.I.), Congressional Progressive Caucus Chairwoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) — some lawmakers are predicting “no wild cards” in the highest ranks next year.

And Jeffries, who would be the first Black Speaker in the nation’s history, appears to be the early favorite for the top spot.

“I think it’s pretty clear that our next tier of leadership is going to be Hakeem, Katherine and Pete,” said one moderate Democratic lawmaker, who like many sources spoke only anonymously to discuss a sensitive topic. “I think probably 80 percent of people here believe that.”
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