SLD
Contributor
OK. Thought I'd start a thread on what you think the final vote will be. Obviously it's not going to be even close. FFvC will not be removed from office.
But will the final vote be? Simply along party lines 53 - 47 to acquit? Or is it possible that a few Republicans with consciences actually vote to convict? Or will any dems break rank?
I'm going to predict a straight party line vote 53 - 47. I know some people have said Doug Jones from Alabama won't vote to convict as he hopes to get re-elected. But I know Doug and he's just being coy by not committing at this point. Then he can say he observed and voted according to the law and was an impartial juror. Besides, he's no fool. He knows he'll lose next year anyways regardless. His best hope is not to piss off his own party and hope for a democratic presidential win and then maybe he can get a good cabinet job or ambassadorship.
But I'd be really pleased if a few Republicans decided to show some courage and vote against him. Maybe Susan Collins and Murkowski from Alaska, and Mitt Romney from Utah. Romney could be immune from repercussions. Trump isn't particularly popular with Utah Republicans. They didn't vote for him in the primary in 2016, and Romney is pretty much a god out there so he could be immune from any consequences of a conviction. Plus he's free until 2024 and by then it will all be forgotten.
Other Republican longshots include:
1) Lamar Alexander who is not up for re-election and doesn't care much for Trump.
2) Rob Portman from Ohio who is up for re-election in a tight race, and said he would be open to conviction if "new" evidence emerged. but I suspect that if he votes to convict he'll hurt himself in the primary.
3) Cory Gardner who has been awfully quiet about the whole thing and is in a tight re-election campaign.
4) Pat Toomey - also in a tight reelection race. But I suspect that the Pa Republicans will be able to force him to stay loyal.
5) Ted Cruz - Ted does not like Trump. He hates the SOB actually. But it would probably be political suicide for him in Texas if he votes against him. But he's not up for re-election until 2024 and he could count on voter amnesia by then, so maybe.
6) John Barasso - probably a long shot. But not up for re-election until 2024.
Well, I'd be blown away if 9 Republicans broke ranks and in the end, I don't think they will. It may just be too politically painful if they dare do such a thing since they know that FFvC will not forgive them and will hold a huge grudge against them. He may even try to take revenge in other ways and if he wins re-election, he'll make them pay in some way. So in the end, I suspect they'll all fall in line.
SLD
But will the final vote be? Simply along party lines 53 - 47 to acquit? Or is it possible that a few Republicans with consciences actually vote to convict? Or will any dems break rank?
I'm going to predict a straight party line vote 53 - 47. I know some people have said Doug Jones from Alabama won't vote to convict as he hopes to get re-elected. But I know Doug and he's just being coy by not committing at this point. Then he can say he observed and voted according to the law and was an impartial juror. Besides, he's no fool. He knows he'll lose next year anyways regardless. His best hope is not to piss off his own party and hope for a democratic presidential win and then maybe he can get a good cabinet job or ambassadorship.
But I'd be really pleased if a few Republicans decided to show some courage and vote against him. Maybe Susan Collins and Murkowski from Alaska, and Mitt Romney from Utah. Romney could be immune from repercussions. Trump isn't particularly popular with Utah Republicans. They didn't vote for him in the primary in 2016, and Romney is pretty much a god out there so he could be immune from any consequences of a conviction. Plus he's free until 2024 and by then it will all be forgotten.
Other Republican longshots include:
1) Lamar Alexander who is not up for re-election and doesn't care much for Trump.
2) Rob Portman from Ohio who is up for re-election in a tight race, and said he would be open to conviction if "new" evidence emerged. but I suspect that if he votes to convict he'll hurt himself in the primary.
3) Cory Gardner who has been awfully quiet about the whole thing and is in a tight re-election campaign.
4) Pat Toomey - also in a tight reelection race. But I suspect that the Pa Republicans will be able to force him to stay loyal.
5) Ted Cruz - Ted does not like Trump. He hates the SOB actually. But it would probably be political suicide for him in Texas if he votes against him. But he's not up for re-election until 2024 and he could count on voter amnesia by then, so maybe.
6) John Barasso - probably a long shot. But not up for re-election until 2024.
Well, I'd be blown away if 9 Republicans broke ranks and in the end, I don't think they will. It may just be too politically painful if they dare do such a thing since they know that FFvC will not forgive them and will hold a huge grudge against them. He may even try to take revenge in other ways and if he wins re-election, he'll make them pay in some way. So in the end, I suspect they'll all fall in line.
SLD
