Moody Analytics - Trump Policies a Disaster

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr.Trump’s economic proposals are adopted.Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office (see Chart). By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today.

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Here we go again. Trump may very well be a big economic disaster.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

Well, that analysis doesn't take into account Trump using his superior brain to figure out how to implement these policies in a really amazing way and using his superb negotiation tactics (I mean, honestly, they're just awesome) to get a really, really great deal that will be such a win for America that everyone will just be fed up with all the winning after seeing him do it.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

With W. Bush, we had a president who talked with God. With that superior brain power, how could we fail?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2005/oct/07/iraq.usa

[h=1]George Bush: 'God told me to end the tyranny in Iraq'[/h]

 

[ZiprHead]

And it will make this much >< difference to the Trumpites.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The question is, will this move last minute voters to vote for Clinton? Trump now has several major analyses of his economics plans, such as they are that state Trump would be an economic disaster saddling us with $1 trillion dollar deficits for a decade. This all could be a potent issue for those who pay little attention to these matters until the last months of a campaign. And it may well keep those who might otherwise automatically vote for the GOP to abandon Trump for his economic policies.

So we have Moody Analytics.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan
Tax Policy Center
http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan
Tax Foundation

All which point the larger deficits and other problems. It's Dubyu Bush all over again.

 

[Derec]

Economic forecasting is always problematic.


Especially since Moody's is probably dominated by investors who benefit a great deal from the economic status quo (which you will get with Hillary).

I am not saying that Trump's economic policies are good (as far as I can see they are a mixture of good and bad). What I am saying is that Moody's is probably not the most unbiased arbiter.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

That's an unecessary generic rebuttal. They provided all of their figures and analyses. Which of them do you feel are skewed due to this bias?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

If President Trump makes a mistake, he can just declare bankruptcy.

 

[Treedbear]

If President Trump makes a mistake, he can just declare bankruptcy.

Trump would say he has never declared bankruptcy. Oh, you mean his company.

 

[dismal]

That's an unecessary generic rebuttal. They provided all of their figures and analyses. Which of them do you feel are skewed due to this bias?

This sort of analysis is based entirely on assumptions about what has what effect on the economy. The model says what the assumptions tell it to.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's an unecessary generic rebuttal. They provided all of their figures and analyses. Which of them do you feel are skewed due to this bias?

This sort of analysis is based entirely on assumptions about what has what effect on the economy. The model says what the assumptions tell it to.

True, but that doesn't mean the model is wrong.

 

[Tristan Scott]

This sort of analysis is based entirely on assumptions about what has what effect on the economy. The model says what the assumptions tell it to.

True, but that doesn't mean the model is wrong.

Their "assumptions" they are using for their "model" are used on facts. For example, if you decide that the US should file bankruptcy and renege on it's debt, as Trump has suggested, it would send the world into a deep economic depression and the dollar would be devalued to the extreme.

 

[dismal]

True, but that doesn't mean the model is wrong.

Their "assumptions" they are using for their "model" are used on facts. For example, if you decide that the US should file bankruptcy and renege on it's debt, as Trump has suggested, it would send the world into a deep economic depression and the dollar would be devalued to the extreme.

A slight amount of reading that which you are attempting to defend would have revealed this is nothing like the assumptions that they modeled.

But thanks for helping to illustrate my point. They are not only making assumptions about how the economy behaves, they are making assumptions about what Trump's policies are.

 

[Tristan Scott]

Their "assumptions" they are using for their "model" are used on facts. For example, if you decide that the US should file bankruptcy and renege on it's debt, as Trump has suggested, it would send the world into a deep economic depression and the dollar would be devalued to the extreme.

A slight amount of reading that which you are attempting to defend would have revealed this is nothing like the assumptions that they modeled.

But thanks for helping to illustrate my point. They are not only making assumptions about how the economy behaves, they are making assumptions about what Trump's policies are.

What're you talking about? He's stated his policies. The only assumptions in the article are that Trump will do what he says he'll do. The assumptions in the Trump Lite section are that he won't get all he wants.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Their "assumptions" they are using for their "model" are used on facts. For example, if you decide that the US should file bankruptcy and renege on it's debt, as Trump has suggested, it would send the world into a deep economic depression and the dollar would be devalued to the extreme.

A slight amount of reading that which you are attempting to defend would have revealed this is nothing like the assumptions that they modeled.

But thanks for helping to illustrate my point. They are not only making assumptions about how the economy behaves, they are making assumptions about what Trump's policies are.

What are they making assumptions on?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The question is, will this move last minute voters to vote for Clinton? Trump now has several major analyses of his economics plans, such as they are that state Trump would be an economic disaster saddling us with $1 trillion dollar deficits for a decade. This all could be a potent issue for those who pay little attention to these matters until the last months of a campaign. And it may well keep those who might otherwise automatically vote for the GOP to abandon Trump for his economic policies.

So we have Moody Analytics.
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-tax-plan
Tax Policy Center
http://taxfoundation.org/article/details-and-analysis-donald-trump-s-tax-plan
Tax Foundation

All which point the larger deficits and other problems. It's Dubyu Bush all over again.

Clinton needs to buy billboard space everywhere and put up three words:

IT'S TRUMP, STUPID!

Of course that might make voters like him.

 

[Trausti]

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr.Trump’s economic proposals are adopted.Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office (see Chart). By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today.

---------
Here we go again. Trump may very well be a big economic disaster.

 

[TV and credit cards]

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr.Trump’s economic proposals are adopted.Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office (see Chart). By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today.

---------
Here we go again. Trump may very well be a big economic disaster.

Premature ejoculation.

 

[starwater]

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr.Trump’s economic proposals are adopted.Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office (see Chart). By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today.

---------
Here we go again. Trump may very well be a big economic disaster.

True and some of it is riding the coatails of his predecessor. He failed to mention once the word democracy last night. What about affordable health care, gun laws, environment, infrastructure, family leave, etc? He's a buffon and the greedy old party is just along for the ride to get tax cuts for the rich and their doners. It's about greed and not about country.

 

[Trausti]

https://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/documents/2016-06-17-Trumps-Economic-Policies.pdf

Driven largely by these factors, the economy will be significantly weaker if Mr.Trump’s economic proposals are adopted.Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office (see Chart). By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7%, compared with below 5% today.

---------
Here we go again. Trump may very well be a big economic disaster.

True and some of it is riding the coatails of his predecessor. He failed to mention once the word democracy last night. What about affordable health care, gun laws, environment, infrastructure, family leave, etc? He's a buffon and the greedy old party is just along for the ride to get tax cuts for the rich and their doners. It's about greed and not about country.

Did you actually watch the speech? He mentioned family leave and infrastructure. He didn't mention other things - so what? The OP cites predictions by liberal economists casting gloom if Trump were elected. Obviously, their prediction was bullshit. And to say that Trump doesn't care about this country is, well, probably very wrong. He's been preaching America First for over 37 years.