Ohio Special Election - very tight 80% reporting

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, another special election and another failure for the GOP to ride Trump's coat tails. It worked in '16, but in a district that the Democrats haven't had since the early 80's (that is further back than you are willing to admit ), the Democrat has a very very slim lead over of the Republican.

Trump won the District by 11 pts in 2016, clearly Trump is losing support or the turnout just isn't the same.

 

[Copernicus]

You are looking at very early results--less than 3% of returns. The outcome could be very different at the end of the count. In fact, the Republican is leading by a slim margin at the time that I post this. It is quite possible that the narrowness of the race will trigger an automatic recount.

 

[Derec]

It's over.

 

[Harry Bosch]

It's over.

God wins again!!

 

[Copernicus]

It isn't over yet. It is possible that there will be a recount. However, it does look like the Republican squeaked in and will occupy the office until the real general election in November. At that point, it is quite possible that he will be turned out of office.

What this suggests to me is that the November election will quite possibly result in Democratic control of the House of Representatives, but by a much narrower margin than Democrats currently dream of.

 

[ZiprHead]

NBC is still calling it too close to call.

 

[Harry Bosch]

NBC is still calling it too close to call.

It appears to be another close race in which the Green Party helped the republican.

 

[ZiprHead]

NBC is still calling it too close to call.

It appears to be another close race in which the Green Party helped the republican.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I don't think people that would vote for that Green guy would have voted for a Democrat. It was very close, within one point. More ballots to count, but appears Republican did barely win out in a race in a district Trump won by 11 pts... and then made an appearance (and Tweet... originally supporting some other Republican), and lots of money spent. The Republicans have to pull out all of the stops for a red district again. This time, they did manage to win.

 

[untermensche]

NBC is still calling it too close to call.

It appears to be another close race in which the Green Party helped the republican.

View attachment 16971

Voting for what they give you, really what they merely promise you, as opposed to what you want is how society is slowly destroyed.

 

[ZiprHead]

I don't think people that would vote for that Green guy would have voted for a Democrat.

That's probably true. But who would be more inclined to enact Green friendly legislation, the Republican or the Democrat? Of course it's the Democrat. So the shooting themselves in the foot analogy is quite appropo since it appears the Republican won.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I don't think people that would vote for that Green guy would have voted for a Democrat. It was very close, within one point. More ballots to count, but appears Republican did barely win out in a race in a district Trump won by 11 pts... and then made an appearance (and Tweet... originally supporting some other Republican), and lots of money spent. The Republicans have to pull out all of the stops for a red district again. This time, they did manage to win.

The most important issue today IMO is climate change. How can we reverse the harm of climate change? The only way is to rely on science and international cooperation. No other magic will work. The party currently in charge of the most powerful country in the world is anti-science and anti-international cooperation. So we're in trouble long term until we toss these guys out.

 

[Worldtraveller]

View attachment 16971

Voting for what they give you, really what they merely promise you, as opposed to what you want is how society is slowly destroyed.

And voting for the hopeless cause, thereby letting the really awful candidate win, is how society is quickly destroyed.

 

[untermensche]

And voting for the hopeless cause, thereby letting the really awful candidate win, is how society is quickly destroyed.

In a real democracy a hopeless cause would be a politician who didn't give you what you wanted.

Constantly accepting what they give you leads you further and further from what you want.

Voting based on party affiliation as opposed to ideas is the death of democracy.

 

[Treedbear]

I don't think people that would vote for that Green guy would have voted for a Democrat.

That's probably true. But who would be more inclined to enact Green friendly legislation, the Republican or the Democrat? Of course it's the Democrat. So the shooting themselves in the foot analogy is quite appropo since it appears the Republican won.

Last night on Maddow's show the guy running the district tally board suggested part of the Green party vote was from Repubs who couldn't vote for someone who supports Trump. So it may be hard to interpret its effect.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And voting for the hopeless cause, thereby letting the really awful candidate win, is how society is quickly destroyed.

In a real democracy a hopeless cause would be a politician who didn't give you what you wanted.

Constantly accepting what they give you leads you further and further from what you want.

Voting based on party affiliation as opposed to ideas is the death of democracy.

And Donald Trump is going to replace at least two SCOTUS Justices, ensuring a rather conservative to far right conservative SCOTUS for decades. While it must be nice to live in your imaginary world where we can have a better democracy by voting third parties, we actually live in the real world, where if we abandon pragmatism, we get leaders like Donald Trump.

Enjoy the view from the pedestal.

 

[ZiprHead]

There are about 9,000 uncounted votes yet to be tallied in this district, mail-ins and provisionals.

 

[Koyaanisqatsi]

FiveThirtyEight's take from this morning:

(I)n the much-watched U.S. House special election in Ohio’s 12th District (located in the Columbus area), Republican Troy Balderson appears to have edged out Democrat Danny O’Connor 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent. Although there are still 8,483 provisional and absentee ballots left to count, many prominent election analysts have called the race (although not the Associated Press, the traditional gold standard for these things). While the loss will doubtlessly disappoint Democrats, it was still just a 1-percentage-point Republican win in a district with an R+14 partisan lean. That’s a Democratic overperformance of 13 points — not too far off the average Democratic overperformance (16 points) in federal special elections going into this week.

 

[Copernicus]

What this means is that Balderson will have a very slight edge of incumbency for the November election, when more people will be voting in that district. The election is so close that it really doesn't matter much who won. The November vote will also likely be very close.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

What this means is that Balderson will have a very slight edge of incumbency for the November election, when more people will be voting in that district. The election is so close that it really doesn't matter much who won. The November vote will also likely be very close.

I think it is a rematch in November. Doubt the Republicans can afford as much money the second time around.

- - - Updated - - -

FiveThirtyEight's take from this morning:

(I)n the much-watched U.S. House special election in Ohio’s 12th District (located in the Columbus area), Republican Troy Balderson appears to have edged out Democrat Danny O’Connor 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent. Although there are still 8,483 provisional and absentee ballots left to count, many prominent election analysts have called the race (although not the Associated Press, the traditional gold standard for these things). While the loss will doubtlessly disappoint Democrats, it was still just a 1-percentage-point Republican win in a district with an R+14 partisan lean. That’s a Democratic overperformance of 13 points — not too far off the average Democratic overperformance (16 points) in federal special elections going into this week.

Yeah, even just by Trump's performance, that is a 10 pt swing, which has been the general trend, so the Republicans in suburbs must be sweating bullets right now.