SLD
Contributor
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...y-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters
A couple of interesting articles about “shy” Trump supporters - people afraid to tell pollsters that they’re supporting Trump. This is from over a month ago. But Nate Silver discounts such voters. Yet the two polls to predict Trump’s win in 2016, Trafalgar and Democracy Institute, deliberately put these people into their models, and now they too predict a Trump win again, primarily in Michigan and Pennsylvania. This would leave Trump with a victory but much closer than 2016, and likely a greater loss in the popular vote.
https://mailchi.mp/f2a6e3945688/the-november-3rd-elections
This site, using Trafalgar and Democracy Institute data, predicts a Trump victory. But it all depends on their view of so called shy Trump supporters. They also predict a Republican led Senate.
I think I would actually prefer a Democratic Senate than the presidency. The only reason I would prefer a Democratic President is because of the Supreme Court, and that’s now a lost cause. The next two years will be economically tough, and who ever is President will likely lose big in 2022. If Dems could take the Senate back this year, they could block a lot of Trump’s actions. They could stop all of his judicial nominees. Then they could really increase their power in 2022 and solidify their House advantage. They could even further increase their leads in 2024, while finally winning the White House too. If Biden wins, then we will see a repeat of Obama‘s years where in 2022 Republicans take back the House and Senate for years to come and there is intense gridlock with nothing happening. That’s my biggest fear of a Biden presidency.
SLD
A couple of interesting articles about “shy” Trump supporters - people afraid to tell pollsters that they’re supporting Trump. This is from over a month ago. But Nate Silver discounts such voters. Yet the two polls to predict Trump’s win in 2016, Trafalgar and Democracy Institute, deliberately put these people into their models, and now they too predict a Trump win again, primarily in Michigan and Pennsylvania. This would leave Trump with a victory but much closer than 2016, and likely a greater loss in the popular vote.
https://mailchi.mp/f2a6e3945688/the-november-3rd-elections
This site, using Trafalgar and Democracy Institute data, predicts a Trump victory. But it all depends on their view of so called shy Trump supporters. They also predict a Republican led Senate.
I think I would actually prefer a Democratic Senate than the presidency. The only reason I would prefer a Democratic President is because of the Supreme Court, and that’s now a lost cause. The next two years will be economically tough, and who ever is President will likely lose big in 2022. If Dems could take the Senate back this year, they could block a lot of Trump’s actions. They could stop all of his judicial nominees. Then they could really increase their power in 2022 and solidify their House advantage. They could even further increase their leads in 2024, while finally winning the White House too. If Biden wins, then we will see a repeat of Obama‘s years where in 2022 Republicans take back the House and Senate for years to come and there is intense gridlock with nothing happening. That’s my biggest fear of a Biden presidency.
SLD
