lpetrich
Contributor
Cyclical theory (United States history)
Political scientist Stephen Skowronek proposes that there are four main types of presidencies, depending on which party they in. To quote Wikipedia,
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]Pres's Party
[/TD]
[TD]Dom Party
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the two most recent Skowronek eras:
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]New Deal
[/TD]
[TD]Gilded Age II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]FDR
[/TD]
[TD]Reagan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Truman
[/TD]
[TD]Bush I
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Eisenhower
[/TD]
[TD]Clinton
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]JFK/LBJ
[/TD]
[TD]Bush II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Nixon/Ford
[/TD]
[TD]Obama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Carter
[/TD]
[TD]Trump
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So Trump is likely to be followed by a reconstructive President. Joe Biden? Kamala Harris?
Political scientist Stephen Skowronek proposes that there are four main types of presidencies, depending on which party they in. To quote Wikipedia,
[TABLE="class: grid"]e proposes that the United States has had several political regimes over its history, regimes with a characteristic cycle of presidency types. Each political regime has had a dominant party and an opposition party, and presidents can be in either the dominant party or the opposition party.
The cycle begins with a reconstructive president, one who typically serves more than one term. He establishes a new regime, and his party becomes the dominant one for that regime. He is usually succeeded by his vice president, his successor is usually an articulation one, and that president usually serves only one term. This president is usually followed by a preemptive president, and articulating and preemptive presidents may continue to alternate. The cycle ends with one or more disjunctive presidents. Such presidents are typically loners, detached from their parties, considered ineffective, and serving only one term.
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]Pres's Party
[/TD]
[TD]Dom Party
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the two most recent Skowronek eras:
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]New Deal
[/TD]
[TD]Gilded Age II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]FDR
[/TD]
[TD]Reagan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Truman
[/TD]
[TD]Bush I
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Eisenhower
[/TD]
[TD]Clinton
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]JFK/LBJ
[/TD]
[TD]Bush II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Nixon/Ford
[/TD]
[TD]Obama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Carter
[/TD]
[TD]Trump
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So Trump is likely to be followed by a reconstructive President. Joe Biden? Kamala Harris?