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Stephen Skowronek Presidency Cycle

lpetrich

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 Cyclical theory (United States history)

Political scientist Stephen Skowronek proposes that there are four main types of presidencies, depending on which party they in. To quote Wikipedia,
e proposes that the United States has had several political regimes over its history, regimes with a characteristic cycle of presidency types. Each political regime has had a dominant party and an opposition party, and presidents can be in either the dominant party or the opposition party.

The cycle begins with a reconstructive president, one who typically serves more than one term. He establishes a new regime, and his party becomes the dominant one for that regime. He is usually succeeded by his vice president, his successor is usually an articulation one, and that president usually serves only one term. This president is usually followed by a preemptive president, and articulating and preemptive presidents may continue to alternate. The cycle ends with one or more disjunctive presidents. Such presidents are typically loners, detached from their parties, considered ineffective, and serving only one term.
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]Pres's Party
[/TD]
[TD]Dom Party
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Opposition
[/TD]
[TD]Strong
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Dominant
[/TD]
[TD]Weak
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Here are the two most recent Skowronek eras:
[TABLE="class: grid"]
[TR]
[TD]Type
[/TD]
[TD]New Deal
[/TD]
[TD]Gilded Age II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reconstructive
[/TD]
[TD]FDR
[/TD]
[TD]Reagan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]Truman
[/TD]
[TD]Bush I
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Eisenhower
[/TD]
[TD]Clinton
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Articulating
[/TD]
[TD]JFK/LBJ
[/TD]
[TD]Bush II
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Preemptive
[/TD]
[TD]Nixon/Ford
[/TD]
[TD]Obama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Disjunctive
[/TD]
[TD]Carter
[/TD]
[TD]Trump
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
So Trump is likely to be followed by a reconstructive President. Joe Biden? Kamala Harris?
 
I was inspired to post on this as I researched Twitter for mentions of the Schlesinger cycles.

Nick Field on Twitter: "@DouthatNYT Schlesinger's Cycles of History at Work?
FDR/Reagan
Eisenhower/Clinton
LBJ/GWB
Nixon/Obama
Carter/Trump" / Twitter


Earlier cycles don't fit the two most recent cycles that well - they don't have such a neat cycle of

Rec - Art - Pre - Art - Pre - Dis

The first President, George Washington, was much like later reconstructive Presidents, because he helped build a new political order.

Here are the disjunctive / reconstructive pairs so far:
  • J Adams / Jefferson
  • JQ Adams / Jackson
  • Pierce, Buchanan / Lincoln
  • (?) McKinley / T Roosevelt
  • Hoover / FDR
  • Carter / Reagan
 
Mark Z. Barabak on Twitter: "Kamala Harris as Ronald Reagan? Forty years on, running for president, each embodies the California of their time, as well as change across the country. https://t.co/k5A9zuU9io" / Twitter
noting
In Kamala Harris, a sequel to Ronald Reagan? - Los Angeles Times - datelined Feb. 28, 2019 - 3:50 PM
Reagan was a son of the American heartland, a California transplant, a Republican anointed by Southern California’s conservative establishment. Harris is a California native, the daughter of immigrants — her father from Jamaica, her mother from India — and a Democrat steeped in the liberalism of the San Francisco Bay Area.

Together, they bookend 40 years of dramatic political and demographic transformation in their home state (along with five more “Star Wars” sequels). In their own way, Reagan and Harris both embody the California of their time and, more broadly, changes across America.

...
The state that ushered Reagan to the White House was predominantly white and Republican-leaning, an arsenal of the Cold War and a hotbed of anti-tax fervor. The California that serves as Harris’ national springboard has more brown than white residents, is strongly Democratic and a leader in high-tech innovation, and has twice voted in recent years to pay more taxes.

...
Still, on paper at least, Harris’ profile — a biracial woman from a state at the beating heart of the anti-Trump resistance — appears well-tailored to the mold of the Democratic Party heading into 2020, much as Reagan reflected, and indeed hastened, the changes that transformed the GOP and the nation in 1980.

In Reagan’s case it was a triumph of Sun Belt conservatism, grounded in a strong national defense, assertive foreign policy, promotion of “traditional family values” and aversion to big government programs and the taxes that finance them.

...
Forty years on, it is Harris who “represents the values and culture and demographics of the liberal Democratic state we’ve become,” said Mark DiCamillo, a nonpartisan pollster who has spent decades plumbing the opinions of California voters.

Harris ventures now to lead a national Democratic Party that has shifted decidedly leftward, its success built on a foundation of women, minorities and socially broad-minded young people. In short, a coalition that has come to greatly resemble California’s populace.
 
Kyle Kondik on Twitter: "this reminds me of Stephen Skowronek's argument about political regimes. FDR/Reagan started their own. At the end of a regime there can be a "disjunctive" member of the old majority party who transforms the coalition only to see it wash away (Carter was one). Trump fits that too" / Twitter

vasabjit banerjee on Twitter: "@julia_azari The parallels between Carter and Trump appear to extend beyond their crumbling domestic political coalitions (ala Stephen Skowronek) to their botched foreign policy efforts." / Twitter

Robinson Meyer on Twitter: "Since Trump’s inauguration week, academics have tried to understand him through Stephen Skowronek’s theory of presidential regimes. It’s produced some useful insights, including an early prediction (which hasn’t yet verified!) that he’d be a weak POTUS. https://t.co/BvXFC1Y4sq" / Twitter

Richard Primus on Twitter: "@jbouie This would be the Stephen Skowronek analysis: that Trump’s is a “disjunctive presidency,” like Carter’s or Hoover’s.

And maybe that’s right. But compare how internally fractured the Ds were under Carter to how unified the Rs are under Trump. (Bill Weld is no Ted Kennedy.)" / Twitter


Morten Bay, Ph.D. and stuff on Twitter: "If you are fan of Prof. Stephen Skowronek's Political Time theory, it's worth noting that the only president with a lower approval rating than Trump at this point in his presidency was the last "Disjunctive" president, Jimmy Carter.

Considering the economy, 42.5% is a disaster." / Twitter


Scott James on Twitter: "Trump as a ‘late regime affiliate’ presidency, like Hoover and Carter - Stephen Skowronek

An unorthodox ‘misfit’ that repudiates their own party in a (failed) effort to reconstitute the old regime

Parallels with a Johnson government should be obvious https://t.co/6HU0ggCMM0" / Twitter

Boris Johnson in the UK?
 
William D. Adler on Twitter: "@MaybellRomero Sorry, insider jargon - it's based on a theory of the presidency by Stephen Skowronek. Short version: disjunctive presidents represent the end of a governing regime's ability to manage events. Carter, Hoover, Buchanan, JQ Adams." / Twitter

b-boy boooo-eebaisse on Twitter: "there’s a pretty clear analogy to make between 1976 and 2016 — the last gasp of a fading coalition wins an unlikely victory before hitting headwinds institutional and political — as well as between 1980 and 2020, with sanders occupying the reagan role pretty well." / Twitter

David_Nagy on Twitter: "@CoreyRobin I've been thinking recently. According to the Stephen Skowronek theory, Trump should lose re-election like Carter, Hoover, etc. Except there's one time that we had 8 years of a president like this: Right before the civil war, with Pierce and Buchanan..." / Twitter
Two awful Presidents in a row, Presidents who did nothing to keep the Civil War from happening.

The Politics Trump Makes | Online Only | n+1
Journalists and pundits often fixate on a President’s personality and psychology, as if the office were born anew with each election. They ignore the structural factors that shape the Presidency. Yet every President is elected to represent a combination of ideologies, policies, and coalitions. That is the President’s political identity: Lincoln brought to power a Republican Party committed to free labor ideals and the overthrow of the slavocracy; Reagan, a Republican Party committed to aggressive free-market capitalism and the overthrow of the New Deal.

Every President also inherits a political situation in which certain ideologies and interests dominate. That situation, or regime, shapes a President’s exercise of power, forcing some to do less, empowering others to do more. Richard Nixon was not a New Deal Democrat, but he was constrained by the political common sense of his time to govern like one, just as Bill Clinton had to bow to the hegemony of Reaganism. Regimes are deep and intractable structures of interest and belief, setting out the boundaries of action, shaping our sense of the possible, over a period of decades.
Then explaining Stephen Skowronek's theory.

A reconstructive President helps create a political regime, and his party becomes dominant. Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, Reagan.

An articulating President is in the dominant party, and expands on its paradigm.

A preemptive President. is in the opposition party, but usually works within the dominant party's paradigm.
Disjunctive Presidents are affiliated with a tottering regime. They sense its weaknesses, and in a desperate bid to save the regime try to transform its basic premises and commitments. Unlike reconstructive Presidents, these figures are too indebted to the regime to break with it. But the regime is too dissonant and fragmented to offer the resources these Presidents need to transform it. They find themselves in the most perilous position of all—hated by all, loved by none—and their administrations often occasion a new round of reconstruction.
J Adams -> Jefferson, JQ Adams -> Jackson, Pierce & Buchanan -> Lincoln, Hoover -> FDR, Carter -> Reagan.
 
Many fear that Trump will follow the path of FDR and Reagan, combining Republican majorities in the House and Senate with his proven skill at demagoguery to launch a reconstructive presidency. Such a move would shift American politics even further to the right. It’s possible. And worrisome.

Yet when Carter won the presidency in 1976 in the aftermath of Watergate, with congressional majorities far greater than Trump’s, many also believed that he might save his party by renovating it from within.
Which he did. He called himself an "outslder", and he criticized not only Republicans but also Democrats. But he did do a lot of reforms in his Presidency, even though his reforms satisfied nobody.
Like Herbert Hoover a half-century before him, he was the last man standing, the poor schmuck who came into office to nudge his party away from its commitment to a weak regime, only to be deserted by his party and tarred by his opponents as that regime’s most orthodox defender.
Carter and Trump have lots of differences in personality, it must be conceded. Carter was very goody-goody, while Trump is not.
The parallels between Carter and Trump are also many, if less obvious. Like Carter, Trump ran hard against his party, decrying its most basic orthodoxies on trade, immigration, and entitlements. Throughout the campaign, Trump proudly and repeatedly declared his refusal to cut Social Security and Medicare. Like no other Republican in modern memory, Trump railed against the plutocratic union of money and state power.

Since his election, Trump has opened an even wider breach with his party, waging an astonishing war against the nation’s security establishment. ...

Both Trump and Carter failed to get a majority of the party’s vote during the primary before winning the presidency. Both Trump and Carter, in other words, were nominated to lead parties that tried bitterly to resist their rise. Just as Trump provoked a variety of last-ditch attempts to stop him, so was there an abortive “Anybody But Carter” movement late in the 1976 primaries.

...
As multiple media outlets have reported over this past year, younger voters consistently voice a preference for socialist or anti-capitalist politics. The breakout support for Bernie Sanders offers an additional measure of dissatisfaction with the reigning neoliberal regime, as do Trump’s erratic jabs at crony capitalism and fitful defenses of Medicare and Social Security. Under George W. Bush, the Republicans were undone by Iraq, Bush’s failed effort to privatize Social Security, and the financial crisis of 2008. Trump—elected with far less support than Bush and without, at least not yet, the ballast of a popular war—is the inheritor of this uneasy, increasingly fractious coalition.
Was written by Corey Robin, likely in late 2016.
 
What Time Is It? Here’s What the 2016 Election Tells Us About Obama, Trump, and What Comes Next | The Nation - Nov 22, 2016 - Political scientist Stephen Skowronek talks about how his theory of the cycles of presidential history explains the campaign’s shocking results.
... “Reconstructive” presidents like Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan (to take only the last two cycles) transform American politics in their own image, clearing the field of viable competition and setting the terms of political debate. They are followed by hand-picked successors (Harry S. Truman and George H.W. Bush) who continue their predecessors’ policies and do little more than articulate an updated version of their ideas. They are usually succeeded in turn by presidents whom Skowronek calls “pre-emptive”—Dwight D. Eisenhower, Bill Clinton—who represent the opposite party but adopt the basic framework of the reigning orthodoxy. Next comes another faithful servant of that orthodoxy (John F. Kennedy/Lyndon Johnson; George W. Bush), followed by another preemptive opposition leader (Richard Nixon, Barack Obama) who again fails to overturn it. The final step in the sequence is a “disjunctive” president—usually somebody with little allegiance to the orthodoxy who is unable to hold it together in the face of the escalating crises it created and to which it has no response. The last disjunctive president, in Skowronek’s schema, was Jimmy Carter.
Previous regimes don't have as good a match as the New Deal and Gilded Age II ones do, the ones that SS mentioned.

Then an interview with SS. He starts off with describing Barack Obama's presidency.
Obama was just an opposition leader trying to see how weak and replaceable the reigning orthodoxy was. His own probing for opportunities to repudiate it stimulated a reaction that ended up reviving that orthodoxy in an even more virulent version—first with the Tea Party and then with the Trump campaign. We shouldn’t be very surprised by that. It’s actually fairly typical of second-round opponents of old regimes. They tend to find that the old orthodoxy comes back with a vengeance. Think of Richard Nixon probing New Deal liberalism for points of weakness, or Woodrow Wilson questioning but not overturning the Republican orthodoxy that had ruled since Lincoln.
Then about how Presidents are supposed to be (1) transformative leaders and (2) good administrators. It's hard to do both.

Trump as a reconstructive, transformative leader SS finds very unconvincing. After mentioning his "Obama Rule",
The second is that you cannot transform the system without irrefutable evidence that there is no viable alternative. ...

Trump won the 2016 election by talking up this fabricated image of the Obama presidency as a failure, but it had very little foundation in reality. One thing I can’t understand is why the Democrats were so incompetent in conveying their accomplishments.
Then how Trump's “I alone can fix it” is just like Carter's “Why not the best?”
The kind of president who reigns over the end of his party’s own orthodoxy is always a guy with no relationship to his party establishment, someone who catches popular mood and says he is going to do it all by himself. Someone like Herbert Hoover, who carefully cultivated his own political brand and image as a “wonder boy”—the guy who can fix anything. Disjunctive presidents are always loners. If Trump is not Andrew Jackson, and if he is Jimmy Carter, then Paul Ryan is Ted Kennedy circa 1978.
Right behind him in primary victories were three Republican politicians: Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and John Kasich. Then brain surgeon Ben Carson, then three more: Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Mike Huckabee. Then businesswoman Carly Fiorina, then three more: Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum. Five politicians withdrew before the primaries: George Pataki, Lindsey Graham, Bobby Jindal, Scott Walker, Rick Perry.

He ran briefly for President in the Reform Party some years back, but that's the extent of his previous experience with public office. So Trump was a complete political outsider, one who ran on his claimed skill as a businessman.
 
SS again:
Obama sketched an outline of what an alternative to Reaganism looks like, but since he couldn’t dislodge the orthodoxy that alternative has been pushed off into the distance. Think of Richard Nixon. He had this idea of the Southern strategy, a way to break white voters off from the Democratic Party, but the regime of New Deal liberalism was too strong for him to accomplish a wholesale political reconstruction. That had to wait for Ronald Reagan. Similarly, Obama has this idea of a diverse coalition but he couldn’t yet displace the old orthodoxy.
So this is something that Trump's successor could do.
We already see in the rise of Donald Trump the limitations of thinking in terms of Reagan-style conservatism versus Obama-style progressivism. He is already mixing up these new coalitions with a different ideological makeup than anything we have seen before. That’s precisely why he is out of sync with his own party. The most brilliant and interesting thing about Trump is that he has a sense of creating something that’s largely alien to the Republican Party but which at least is fresh and new.
That's how he campaigned.

SS concluded by noting that reconstructive leaders often created something new rather than simply the opposite of their predecessors' platforms. Like FDR's New Deal and the New Deal coalition.

What might a post-Trump regime look like? One can only speculate. SS himself ended with "If there’s going to be a reconstruction following a failed Trump presidency, it’s going to be something completely different than what we’ve seen before. Somebody has to come up with what that’s going to be. That’s a job for political action, not political science."
 
He had written back in 1993 a book, "The Politics Presidents Make".

What History Tells Us About Trump’s Implosion and Biden’s Opportunity | The Nation - 2020 Oct 12
He did not predict Trump’s victory, but as he reiterated when we spoke again last week, his analysis of past historical cycles suggested it was unlikely Obama would be able to hand off power to his chosen successor. He hadn’t done nearly enough to repudiate the existing Reagan-founded regime, much less to establish a new one. A Hillary Clinton victory would have defied Skowronek’s theory—or at least required a more complicated explanation than did Trump’s win.

What that more complicated explanation would have entailed has to do with the oft-neglected second strand of Skowronek’s theory. He calls this “secular time,” a term of social-science art referring to processes that are not cyclical but linear; they continue in a single direction over time. Skowronek is particularly interested in the growing power of the presidency—each occupant’s increasing ability to communicate directly with voters, bypass the gridlocked legislative process in favor of executive orders, and personally control the thousand-tentacled bureaucracy.

The “secular time” story also helps explain why, though all the pieces seem to be in place for Trump’s defeat this November—the final repudiation of a bankrupt Reaganism and the rise of a new Democratic regime—he could still win. Should Trump manage to hold on to office, it will be due to his use and abuse of these augmented presidential powers.
Like blackmailing Ukraine's President into investigating Joe Biden and ordering the sabotage of the Postal Service.

SS noted that Trump is typical of Presidents late in a political regime. He is a political loner with no connection to his adopted party, and he did a hostile takeover of it.
Usually, by the time you get to the fourth incarnation of a regime, things are tattered and in flux. But what we know about late-regime affiliates—Carter, Hoover, [Franklin] Pierce/[James] Buchanan, John Quincy Adams—is that they never fix things up. They enter office promising repair and rehabilitation, but instead they expose the regime’s serious vulnerabilities and drive a nationwide crisis of legitimacy. They have political impact as potent agents of change, but the change is uniformly implosive. They make it clear the old regime is beyond repair, and thus lay it open to direct repudiation as the very source of the nation’s problems.

We see this clearly in Trump. Again, it’s almost too perfect. He has alienated core constituencies, endangered political allies, and shrunk the party’s base. And now we have this devastating finale, the coronavirus pandemic, which has become a summary judgment on the entire Reaganite operation, laying the system open to total repudiation.
 
When asked what Trump thinks, SS responded "I think that Trump thinks—to the extent that he thinks about it at all, or perhaps it’s just Steve Bannon—that this is a reconstructive moment and that he has the potential to take control and define American politics for years to come."

He considers himself a super genius, so I think that he may consider his Presidency the second founding of the US.
But what do reconstructive leaders do? It’s not just that they implement a policy agenda. That’s secondary. More importantly, they build durable majorities, new parties, maybe with the same label but it’s a new coalition. And they dislodge the existing political infrastructure.
Then noting Andrew Jackson shutting down the Second Bank of the United States, and Abe Lincoln's conquering the South and ending slavery. To which I add FDR's New Deal with its alphabet soup of new government departments.
On the face of it, that is what Trump is doing. He is building a new party, gutting institutions, even packing the courts. That looks like reconstruction. But can a president who is nominally affiliated with the dominant party of the previous regime reconstruct? History tells us no. Instead, they implode, and they bring the whole regime down with them. To me, it looks like that is what is happening. Yet I also see things that resonate with reconstruction: The old order has collapsed, and the question is: Who will reconstruct it? It could be Trump. If so, the reconstruction would be quite profound and systemic. That’s what everyone is warning about.
And disastrous. Trump greatly overestimates his competence at governing, while much preferring golfing and watching Fox & Friends to the actual work of governing. He allegedly does not like reading briefing papers, and some sources claim that his aides can manipulate him by deciding what to put on his desk. He is very dependent on personal loyalty, which is why he seems to trust his son-in-law Jared Kushner with a lot of stuff. This seems much more like being a monarch than being a leader of a constitutional democratic republic.
 
Back in 1980, Jimmy Carter was challenged by Teddy Kennedy, and also by a rabbit.  Jimmy Carter rabbit incident A rabbit swam toward his fishing boat, but he scared it off by splashing some water on it. This "killer rabbit" incident made him seem hopelessly wimpy as a leader. TK was a more serious challenger, winning 38% of the popular vote vs. Carter's 51%, and 12 states vs. 36.

But Trump has had remarkably few challengers among Republicans, despite widespread revulsion to his Presidency among Republicans.
It’s astounding how the party has rolled over and the people who challenged him have retired. That gives me pause. Thinking institutionally and historically about patterns rather than personalities, I think we can attribute this in part to the gradual rise of presidentialism in America. That is, presidents have increasingly become independent political actors, effectively their own political organizations, and much less accountable to any collective project. They’re also less dependent on Congress to govern, and more able to do so through control of the bureaucracy.

... Instead of the party holding him to account, he holds fellow partisans to account by threatening to run candidates loyal to him in primary elections. That is a difference with Trump, and not an insignificant one.

It’s quite brilliant the way he has been able to pull Republicans along by giving them just enough to keep them in the fold—tax cuts, deregulation, judges. People want to say he doesn’t know what he’s doing, but I’m not sure that’s the case. It’s been quite impressive. Historically, this has been an almost impossible leadership position, and that makes his performance all the more remarkable.
In effect, bullying the Republican Party into submission.
 
The Democrats are mainly offering "same old, same old" and being the opposite of the Republican Party of some big issues.
At the same time, however, we are seeing from the Sanders/Warren wing of the party serious talk about structural reforms that would alter the very terrain on which politics plays out. Not just policies, but changing the game. They’re talking about what to do with the Supreme Court, getting rid of the filibuster, admitting the District of Columbia as a state, passing a new Voting Rights Act. All of this suggests interest in building a kind of institutional bulwark that would be supportive of a new set of commitments. These structural reforms no longer seem completely beyond the pale; they are not being rejected out of hand or repudiated by the nominee. And those are just the kinds of things that could change the playing field of American politics.
Also ranked-choice voting, a Green New Deal, Medicare for All, Housing for All, student-loan forgiveness, ending drug warring, and the like. No mention of proportional representation or the metric system, at least not yet.
Joe Biden is possibly the least likely reconstructive leader you can imagine, and yet I’m not giving up on him completely. A lot will depend on the size of the victory. In some ways, having a moderate with a reconstructive movement or coalition at his back is exactly where you want to be.
One can then say that one isn't being ideological when one enacts all that new stuff.

It must be noted that Abe Lincoln wasn't some hard-line abolitionist. He was not very eager to fight a war to abolish slavery. Likewise, FDR wasn't a socialist. He got into the New Deal after learning about how horrible the Great Depression was.
What distinguishes reconstructive leaders is their authority to repudiate—and to repudiate not just the previous incumbent but the old order itself for a failed and illegitimate response to national problems.
Joe Biden, however, thinks that the big problem is Trump. He may be accustomed to working with Republicans in decades past, and he remembers how courteous some segregationists were to him.

But he might eventually accept that the political world of his earlier career is now gone. In its place, we see Trumpism and McConnellism.
 
SS then got into the notion of a permanently preemptive Presidency. Preemptive leaders are from opposition parties when dominant parties are strong. Though they often get re-elected, their preferred successors don't succeed them, and their alternatives don't survive their presidencies.

Like Bill Clinton with his Third Way and "New Democratic Party", Barack Obama, Richard Nixon, Dwight Eisenhower, and Woodrow Wilson. Nixon had the complication of resigning and being succeeded by his Vice President, Gerald Ford, but Ford did not get re-elected.

... They arise, are fairly independent, they do their thing, but then the alternative they offer just disappears, because the next president comes along and offers a new one. There’s no durability, and thus no reconstruction. It’s a much more volatile world. It’s also not a particularly effective form of government, because no commitments are stable. Everything is up for grabs and uncertain.
That seems like how the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire. The Senate got overshadowed by ambitious and adventurous generals, and one of those generals eventually decided that he would just plain take over: Julius Caesar.

So would a permanently preemptive presidency lead to some President deciding that he wanted to stay in office for the rest of his life? Trump has talked about that. In such an American Caesarism scenario, Congress and the courts would end up taking a back seat to the President.
I still think we’re a long way from that. What’s remarkable to me is that I’ve been talking about this alternative scenario, the washing out of political time, since the early 1990s. But this conservative Reaganite regime has played out remarkably true to form. The historical patterns seem to be holding. Trump is a late-regime affiliate, and I am beginning to suspect that all the complications are just noise.
That may be optimistic. It will depend on how the election goes.
 
I recently looked into the issue of whether Teddy Roosevelt qualifies as a reconstructing or an articulating President - someone who starts a new regime or else works within an existing regime's paradigm as a member of its dominant party. I found several articles on Skowronek "political time" - US regimes and presidency types.

The Recent Unpleasantness: Understanding the Cycles of Constitutional Time - Jack M Balkin, Winter 2019
  1. Rise and fall of political regimes
  2. Political polarization and depolarization
  3. Decay and renewal of republican government
Political polarization is one of the variables tracked by Peter Turchin in "Ages of Discord". It was initially rather high - Federalists and Democratic-Republicans hated each other, but by the 1820's, the D-R's succeeded in destroying the Feds and making the Era of Good Feelings low-polarization. But that didn't last long, because the D-R's ended up splitting into Democrats and National Republicans. The latter party became the Whigs and the Whigs were succeeded by the Republicans, and polarization became high. It stayed high until the early 20th cy., declining to a low during the Eisenhower Era, a sort of second Era of Good Feelings. Then it started rising, and it got very bad in the 1990's with the Republicans' politics of confrontation. We are still in that stage.

The author's identification of regimes (dates, name, dominant party, opposition party)
  • 1789 - 1800 - Federalist - Pro-Admin / Federalist - Anti-Admin / Jeffersonians / D-R
  • 1899 - 1828 - Jeffersonian - Democratic-Republicans - Federalists (until mid-1810's)
  • 1828 - 1860 - Jacksonian - Democrats - National Republicans / Whigs (after 1834) / Republicans (after 1854)
  • 1860 - 1932 - Republican - Republicans - Democrats
  • 1932 - 1980 - New Deal / Civil Rights - Democrats - Republicans
  • 1980 - ???? - Reagan (2nd Republican, Gilded Age II) - Republicans - Democrats
The Democrats almost start a new regime in 1896, but they fail.

The author proposes that Gilded Age II is falling apart.
  1. The regime is a victim of its political success. It is now facing challenges that it is failing to solve, like stagnant wages.
  2. The regime's ideological commitments have created a split between the ideological elite and the rank-and-file, like in trade deals.
  3. The regime supported campaign-finance deregulation, enabling big-money donors to act independent of the party leaderships.
  4. The regime committed itself to cultural traditionalism, and ended up drawing or losing the resulting culture wars.
  5. The regime's polarization and obstructionism against Democrats also made it hard for Republicans to govern effectively.
  6. The regime has had difficulty getting popular-vote victories and has resorted to gaming the system in various ways.
  7. Soon to be ex-President Trump is at an especially precarious point in the cycle.
 
Where are we in Skowronek's political time?

Jack M Balkin then considers Trump's Presidency.

Is he reconstructive? Like Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, FDR, and Reagan. Arguably also Washington, though in his case, there was no pre-existing political regime.

Is he affiliated / articulating? Like Madison, Monroe, Polk, Grant, T. Roosevelt, Taft, Truman, Kennedy, LBJ, Bush I. More recently, Bush II.

Is he preemptive? Like Tyler, Filmore, Cleveland, Wilson, Eisenhower, Nixon, and Clinton. More recently, Obama.

Is he disjunctive? Like J. Adams, J.Q. Adams, Buchanan, Hoover, and Carter.

It is unlikely that Trump is a reconstructive President. He did not run against the philosophy of Reaganism or claim that he sought to displace it. Like other Republican primary candidates, he sought to compare himself to Reagan, and his primary campaign slogan, Make America Great Again, originated with Reagan. He has strongly supported the religious right and nominated conservative pro-life judges vetted by the Federalist Society. With only a few important exceptions (to be discussed later), his policies and his judicial appointments have been very conservative and characteristic of a conservative Republican President

For the same reasons, Trump is not a preemptive President; he did not come into office from an opposition party, trying to swim against the tide of Reaganism and seeking to find a way to compromise with the dominant party or triangulate between the two parties’ positions. He is the leader of the regime’s dominant party, the Republicans. The members of his party have strongly supported him, not because they like his personal behavior or his political principles (he doesn’t seem to have many settled principles), but rather because his policies have been largely consistent with those of a very conservative Republican. The President he most sought to repudiate was not Ronald Reagan but Barack Obama, and if Obama was a preemptive President in the Reagan regime, it’s hard to see how Trump could be one too.

Trump might well be an affiliated President like George W. Bush. As noted above, after his election, Trump and his appointees have acted like very conservative Republicans on a wide range of issues. On the other hand, Trump has departed from Republican orthodoxy in several ways: his rejection of free trade, his defense of middle-class entitlements such as Social Security and Medicare, and his repeated calls for huge public works and infrastructure projects. During the campaign Trump also criticized George W. Bush’s hawkish foreign policy, distanced himself from the Iraq War, and even blamed Bush for failing to prevent the 9/11 attacks.

Trump’s opposition to free trade and his draconian rhetoric on immigration suggest that although he is not abandoning the regime’s commitments to deregulatory capitalism, low taxes, and the culture wars, he is trying to renovate and repair the regime. He is adapting it to a changing Republican base of white, working class voters, especially those without college degrees.

Trump, in other words, seems to be trying to give the Reagan regime a new lease on life, or a new shot of legitimacy, by pushing it in a strongly populist and nativist direction. And he is offering himself as a nonideological outsider who has the special talents to fix things. According to Skowronek’s model, this style of leadership makes him most like a disjunctive President.
 
An end-of-an-era sort of President, like Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter. The sort of President who often gets remembered as a bad President.

SS himself on that kind of President.
[O]ne of the great ironies of the politics of disjunction is that the Presidents who come to office in these sorts of situations tend to have only the most tenuous relationship to the establishments they represent. Long-festering problems within the regime tend to throw up leaders only nominally affiliated with it, and in their efforts to address the issues of the day, these affiliates often press major departures of their own from the standard formulas and priorities set in the old agenda. The political effect of these departures is disjunctive: they sever the political moorings of the old regime and cast it adrift without anchor or orientation.
Jack Balkin says that that fits Trump very well, and I agree. Trump had no connection with either major party, and his only political experience before his run was a brief run for the Presidency in a minor party. JB then points out that disjunctive Presidents sometimes boast of their superior skills. John Quincy Adams and James Buchanan: excellent at politics, Herbert Hoover and Jimmy Carter: great problem solvers and technocrats. Trump fits in perfectly, saying what an excellent business leader and deal maker he is.

Then JB discusses political polarization. He says that polarization was asymmetric in the 1990's, with the Republican Party going far to the right and the Democrats going a little to the left. Liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats have become rare, and Republicans both obstruct Democrats and show themselves poor at governing.

Then he discusses rot in constitutional government, though his discussion seems all theoretical, unlike his discussion of political polarization, for instance.
 
Context, Opportunity, and the Potential for Presidential Greatness by Samuel A. Fontaine

He examines several evaluations of the Presidents by various experts and scholars, and his combined ranking is not very surprising. Lincoln, FDR, and Washington on the top and Pierce, Buchanan, and Harding on the bottom.

Low-stdev Presidents (the most consensus): Jefferson, Lincoln, Truman, Eisenhower, Franklin Roosevelt, Washington, George H.W. Bush, Theodore Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Grant.

High-stdev Presidents (the least consensus): Cleveland, Fillmore, Tyler, James Buchanan, Hoover, Carter, Benjamin Harrison, Hayes, Reagan, and Andrew Johnson.

Overall mean by Skowronek type (lower is better):
  • Reconstructive: 5.8
  • Articulating: 22.9
  • Preemptive: 18.3
  • Disjunctive: 30.6
Rec Presidents are usually good ones, Art and Pre Presidents are about average, and Dis Presidents are usually bad ones.

Skowronek also discussed how Presidents governed.
  • Patrician politics: 1789-1828 -- 10.7
  • Partisan politics: 1828-1900 -- 24.5
  • Pluralist politics: 1900-1972 -- 16.3
  • Plebiscitary politics: 1972-present -- 24.6

A. Fontaine also discussed how well Presidents did with wars, with winners doing better than indecisive-result ones.
 
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