The spectrum of extraterrestrial-intelligence contact types

[lpetrich]

IAA SETI Permanent Committee: Rio Scale is a proposed numerical scaling of how strong a claim of extraterrestrial-intelligence evidence is: 10 Extraordinary, 9 Outstanding, 8 Far-reaching, 7 High, 6 Noteworthy, 5 Intermediate, 4 Moderate, 3 Minor, 2 Low, 1 Insignificant, 0 None.

That scale uses the formula Q * d, where Q = Q1 + Q2 + Q3
Q1 = nature of phenomenon (higher: more specific to us)
Q2 = type of observation of it (higher: more persistent and/or professional)
Q3 = apparent distance of it (higher: closer to us)
d = credibility of it (higher: more credible)
IAA SETI Permanent Committee: Rio Scale Calculator -- plug in various scenarios and see what you get. Warning: its numbers are rounded down.

The Rio Scale applied to Fictional SETI Detections
It includes some non-fictional ones, like the Mars Face. It initially had Q1 = 1 (artifact with unknown purpose), Q2 = 4 (persistent, non-SETI/SETA), Q3 = 4 (in the Solar System), d = 1/6 (very uncertain), giving Rio-scale value 1. Later observations revealed that it was not much of a face, giving d = 0, and thus a scale value of 0.

Mars's alleged canals and its moon Phobos's alleged hollowness had also followed that trajectory.

The 1977 WOW signal turns out to have a Rio value of 1 to 2 (Improving the Rio Scale: what led to the present version. WOW had Q1 = 3 - 4 (beacon), Q2 = 3 (transient SETI), Q3 = 1 - 3 (outside the Solar System), d = 1 (very uncertain)). So even if it was an ET broadcast, it would not tell us much.

Now for various bits of purported evidence of ET's in the Solar System (Q3 = 4). I will treat them as having the highest reliability (d = 2/3) for comparison purposes, even though their reliability is often much lower, even zero in some cases.

• Q1 = 1, Q2 = 4, RS = 6 -- Mars's canals, the Mars face, Mars's moon Phobos's hollowness
• Q1 = 1 - 2, Q2 = 1, RS = 4 -- Ancient-astronaut artifacts
• Q1 = 6, Q2 = 1, RS = 7 -- Ancient-astronaut contacts
• Q1 = 1 - 2, Q2 = 4, RS = 6 -- UFO observations: UFO's as ET spacecraft
• Q1 = 6, Q2 = 2, RS = 8 -- UFO experiencing: one-off
• Q1 = 6, Q2 = 4, RS = 9 -- UFO experiencing: repeated

UFO experiencing here includes both abductions and friendly contacts (contactee cases). It should be UFO contactees who give us the best evidence of all, but their accounts often have numerous problems. Like errors that their alleged experiences ought to have enabled correction of, and errors that their alleged ET friends ought also to have corrected. Even evidence of outright fraud, like pictures with features that suggest fakery. So they should all get d = 0 (lowest reliability) unless there is strong reason to believe otherwise.

 

[Jayjay]

I propose an alternative scale of 0-10:

0 = No contact.
1-10 = Humanity is fucked.

 

[skepticalbip]

Hey, that is great. They have a mathematical expression to compute the chance. That makes the determination "scientific" rather than just a wild-assed guess.

 

[lpetrich]

Hey, that is great. They have a mathematical expression to compute the chance. That makes the determination "scientific" rather than just a wild-assed guess.

It's not a way of computing the chance of some mode of contact.

It's a way of estimating how strong a purported discovery is. It's (the strength of the discovery's contents) * (the credibility of the discovery).

 

[lpetrich]

An issue not considered was some of us Earthlings traveling to the ET's. There are some possibilities there.

• In an Earthling-commanded spacecraft
• In an ET-commanded spacecraft
  • Voluntary, with the consent of the spacecraft's commanders or at their request: we are invited to travel, we request travel, we purchase travel (UFO-contactee scenario)
  • Voluntary, without the consent of the spacecraft's commanders: becoming stowaways
  • Involuntary (UFO-abductee scenario)

Jerry Pournelle's Janissaries straddles the first voluntary and the involuntary one: travel with us or risk suffering some horrible fate.

The closest thing to the stowaway scenario that I know of is a reverse one: a stowaway ET aboard an Earthling spaceship ("Green Patches" in "Nightfall and Other Stories").

So it requires either Earthling interstellar-travel capability or else physical contact with ET's.

 

[tantric]

I propose an alternative scale of 0-10:

0 = No contact.
1-10 = Humanity is fucked.

it can go the other way - one solution to fermi's paradox is that there is some force that hunts down and removes civilizations that send out radio signals.