Suburban voters have been growing as a share of the electorate since the mid-1990s, and they have become consequential in presidential elections. They could be determinative in this one too, as they make up roughly half of all voters.
Since George W. Bush's reelection, the candidate who won the suburbs won the election, except in 2012. Then, Mitt Romney won the suburbs and lost to Barack Obama, showing why it's even more important for a Republican to win over suburban voters.
Based on national exit polls, here are the percentages of the electorate that were suburban voters in recent elections, plus the margins for each candidate:
- 2004: 45% (Bush 52%-47%)
- 2008: 49% (Obama 50%-48%)
- 2012: 47% (Romney 50%-48%)
- 2016: 50% (Donald Trump 47%-45%)
You can see that Trump won suburban voters narrowly in 2016, but he has since cratered with them. In recent polling, he's down by a historic margin, an average of 15 points.
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Trump needs them back, and he's trying to use fear to do it. Amid COVID-19 spikes, Trump is trying to change the subject, running an ad called "Abolished." It makes the case that "You won't be safe in Joe Biden's America," because police departments would be defunded — even though Biden has said he's not in favor of defunding the police.
And Trump seems to be trying to make his case with an anachronistic racial appeal to a declining audience.
