Voting reform efforts

[lpetrich]

Maine to use ranked voting for president after repeal fails

The Maine GOP gathered signatures to try to force a people’s veto vote on the law change. That would have kept ranked choice voting off presidential ballots in the state this year, because voters would have had to decide then whether to retain the voting method.

Maine Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap said that the Republicans’ effort doesn’t have enough valid signatures to force that vote. Republicans submitted 72,512 signatures, but only 61,334 were valid — more than 1,600 short of the threshold, he said.

The Maine GOP vowed to challenge the ruling.

They should have done what AOC did on her first run -- gather a lot more signatures than necessary. Only 1,250 signatures were necessary to get onto the US House primary ballot, but she was concerned about challenges to them, so she pursued a strategy of getting many more than necessary. She originally wanted 10,000, 8 times as many, but she got 5,000, 4 times as many.

 Instant-runoff voting, a form of vote counting for  Ranked voting

Instead of voting for one and only one candidate, one votes for one's first preference, second preference, third preference, etc. - usually as many as 3 or 4 or 5 candidates.

In IRV counting, one repeats these steps until some candidate gets a majority of votes. That one is the winner.
Count all the top votes.
Drop the candidate with the lowest count from future counts.

Here is an example, using this upcoming Presidential election. The candidates are Howie Hawkins (Grn), Joe Biden (Dem), Jo Jorgensen (Lib), Donald Trump (Rep)

• 20 voters: JB, HH
• 20 voters: JB, JJ
• 15 voters: HH, JB
• 35 voters: DT, JJ
• 5 voters: JJ, DT
• 5 voters: JJ, JB

Counts: JB: 40, DT: 35, HH: 15, JJ: 10

JJ drops out, and the ballots become

• 20 voters: JB, HH
• 20 voters: JB
• 15 voters: HH, JB
• 35 voters: DT
• 5 voters: DT
• 5 voters: JB

Counts: JB: 45, D: 40, HH: 15

HH drops out, and the ballots become

• 20 voters: JB
• 20 voters: JB
• 15 voters: JB
• 35 voters: DT
• 5 voters: DT
• 5 voters: JB

Counts: JB 60, DT 40

JB gets a majority, and JB wins.

 

[lpetrich]

Instant runoff has some nice features, like being spoiler-proof. One can vote for a fallback candidate as well as a favorite one, and if one's favorite one loses, then one's fallback will go into use. Thus, if one wants to vote for Howie Hawkins, one can make Joe Biden one's second choice, so that if HH loses, one will still have a vote for JB.

There are lots of other ways of counting ranked ballots, some of them IRV-like, and some of them very different, but I won't get into them here.

 History and use of instant-runoff voting - also known as ranked-choice voting, alternative voting, and preferential voting.

Instant runoff dates back to 1870, and it has been used in several places over the last 150 years. Here in the United States, it has been used off and on over the decades, but over the last few decades, it has been adopted by several cities, and in one state: Maine.

Maine adopted it in a 2016 referendum, though it has been under attack from Republicans in that state. The state's Supreme Court ended up deciding that it was unconstitutional for state general elections, though it could be used in state primary ones and in Federal ones. It will be used in the Presidential general election this year, and in Presidential primaries in 2024.

Getting it into the state's constitution will be rather difficult. It will need a 2/3 majority in the legislature and then winning a referendum.

The state has had a controversial IRV election in 2018, in its 2nd Congressional district.

The first round of counting:

• Republican Bruce Poliquin 134,184 46.33%
• Democratic Jared Golden 132,013 45.58%
• Independent Tiffany L. Bond 16,552 5.71%
• Independent William R.S. Hoar 6,875 2.37%

No candidate got a majority, and the lowest two were then removed from the count.

The second round of counting:

• Democratic Jared Golden 142,440 50.62
• Republican Bruce Poliquin 138,931 49.38

Bruce Poliquin got the most votes in the first round, though not a majority. He lost in the second round, and he and other Republicans have objected to that outcome.

 

[lpetrich]

A recent IRV backtrack was in Burlington, VT, which used it from 2005 to 2010. That was because of the  2009 Burlington mayoral election.

The rounds of counting were:

Candidate, party, (number of votes transferred), %, % active

First round:

• Bob Kiss Progressive 2,585 28.8% 28.8%
• Kurt Wright Republican 2,951 32.9% 32.9%
• Andy Montroll Democrat 2,063 23.0% 23.0%
• Dan Smith Independent 1,306 14.5% 14.5%
• James Simpson Green 35 0.4% 0.4%

Second round:

• Bob Kiss Progressive +396 2,981 33.2% 33.8%
• Kurt Wright Republican +343 3,294 36.7% 37.3%
• Andy Montroll Democrat +491 2,554 28.4% 28.9%

Third round:

• Bob Kiss Progressive +1332 4,313 48.0% 51.5%
• Kurt Wright Republican +767 4,061 45.2% 48.5%

The Condorcet winner, however, is Andy Montroll, and he and the other candidates form a Condorcet sequence: Bob Kiss, Kurt Wright, Dan Smith, James Simpson, and the write-ins. Each one beats the later ones in one-to-one contests.

Wikipedia has this list of alternative-count results:

• Wright would have won under plurality.
• Kiss won under IRV, and would have won under a two-round system vs Wright (under Burlington's 40% threshold or the traditional 50%).
• Montroll would have won if the ballots were counted using Borda count, Bucklin, Coombs, Keener-Eigenvector, Sinkhorn, or any Condorcet method (Schulze, Ranked pairs, Copeland, etc.) Montroll would also likely have won using ratings systems like Score, Approval, or IRNR.[15][21]

From Wikipedia on this election's controversy:

The IRV election is considered a success by IRV advocates such as FairVote, asserting it prevented the election of the first round plurality leader by avoiding the effect of vote-splitting between the other candidates,[12] was easy for voters to understand,[13] avoided the need for traditional runoffs,[13][14] and "contributed to producing a campaign among four serious candidates that was widely praised for its substantive nature".[12]

The election is considered a failure of IRV, by advocates of other voting reforms, because a 54% majority of voters preferred another specific candidate over the IRV winner:[15] The Condorcet "beats-all" winner[16][17][18][19][20] (and likely most-approved/highest-rated candidate) did not win.[21][15] Critics claimed the system is convoluted,[14] did nothing to increase voter turnout,[14] turned voting into a "gambling game" due to non-monotonicity,[16][22][23] and "eliminated the most popular moderate candidate and elected an extremist".[22]

The IRV outcome was a result of vote-splitting: Andy Montroll defeated both Bob Kiss and Kurt Wright in separate pairwise contests, and was eliminated in the second round of IRV due to vote-splitting with both candidates. Kurt Wright acted as a spoiler candidate (a loser whose presence in the race changed who the winner is), splitting the vote against Bob Kiss; Wright received more first-choice votes (including promoted votes to first-choice) than Montroll due to Kiss splitting the vote against Wright.[24]

The election did demonstrate that voters are capable of using ranked-choice ballots, with 99.9% of the ballots filled out correctly,[12] though this includes 16% of voters who bullet-voted for only one candidate.[25]

This controversy led to its repeal, though some people in Burlington are thinking of reintroducing it.

 

[lpetrich]

A modified version of IRV was used in the Presidential primaries in Alaska, Wyoming, Kansas, and Hawaii, with the counting stopped when all the remaining candidates have over 50% of the vote. But all the candidates but Joe Biden dropped out of the race before those primaries, so we lack a good test of the method.

Ranked Choice Voting Wins in 2020 - FairVote - a big list

RCV 2020 Ballot Measures - FairVote

Massachusetts voters will vote on whether to implement IRV in their state, and Alaska will be voting on whether to do a combination of top-four nonpartisan primaries and instant-runoff main elections.

This would be something like the top-two systems of California and Washington State, with a nonpartisan "jungle" primary with the top two candidates going on to the main election. This is sometimes called a two-round or two-ballot system, and it is common elsewhere in the world. Some states also use it whenever nobody wins a majority in primary elections. Louisiana does not have primaries, but can have runoff elections following the general ones if nobody wins a majority in any of them.

In Alaska's proposed system, however, it is the top four rather than the top two who would advance to the general election.

There are also some IRV proposals in Arkansas and North Dakota.

 

[Worldtraveller]

And in a effort to roll back any reform, the TX GOP platform includes wanting to change the (TX) constitution to implement an electoral college in the state.

https://twitter.com/kherman/status/1283761587845828608

 

[lpetrich]

Titled link:
Ken Herman on Twitter: "Proposed Texas GOP platform plank, advanced by temporary committee, calling for State Electoral College system for electing statewide officials. https://t.co/h3aUc0C5LJ" / Twitter

State Electoral College: Be it resolved that the state legislature shall cause to be enacted a State Constitutional Amendment creating an electoral college consisting of electors selected by the popular votes cast within each individual state senatorial district, who shall then elect all statewide office holders.

Maine Supreme Court allows ranked-choice voting for presidential election | TheHill
noting
Ranked-choice voting will be used in Maine’s presidential election, high court rules

Ranked-choice voting will be used in the presidential election in Maine this fall after the state’s high court ruled that Republicans did not gather enough valid signatures to put forward a people’s veto effort challenging the voting method.

The decision, coming after months of legal challenges and an initial ruling from the Maine Supreme Judicial Court earlier this month that allowed the state to begin printing ballots, is a victory for Secretary of State Matt Dunlap, a Democrat whose office twice determined that opponents of ranked-choice voting failed to get enough signatures.

I don't consider that a very dignified sort of victory.

RCV is now used in all statewide elections except for the governor and the state legislature general elections, because the state's Supreme Court has ruled that doing so would violate the state's constitution. It's possible to change that, but it would require 2/3 of both houses and then a majority of voters.

It will be interesting to see how it turns out in the US Senate election in that state. Lisa Savage has urged her voters to make Sara Gideon their second preference, so that if she loses, their votes won't go to waste.

 

[lpetrich]

Let's see what's on the ballot:

Massachusetts Question 2, Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
RCV for primary and general elections for all Congressional and state offices, and for some county offices.

Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting and Campaign Finance Laws Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
Top-four elections for all Congressional and state offices.

All the candidates for some office would compete in a nonpartisan or blanket or jungle primary. The top four of them would advance to the general election, which would be done by RCV.

Mississippi Remove Electoral Vote Requirement and Establish Runoffs for Gubernatorial and State Office Elections Amendment (2020) - Ballotpedia
The electoral-vote bit: a candidate for every elected state office must win a majority in the 122 districts of the MS state house. Otherwise that body decides. This measure replaces that with majority vote, with a top-two runoff election if no candidate wins a majority.


Good to see Massachusetts and Alaska potentially joining Maine. I checked and what was passed in New York City last year was RCV for city primary and special elections.

 

[lpetrich]

Arkansas Issue 5, Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
It would have applied to all Congressional and state offices.

It was rejected by that state's Supreme Court because of not enough valid ballot-petition signatures: Statement from Arkansas Secretary of State John Thurston

The Arkansas Supreme Court kills constitutional amendments for nonpartisan redistricting and open primaries UPDATE - Arkansas Times

The Arkansas Supreme Court today disqualified two proposed constitutional amendments for the ballot because of flawed affidavits on background checks for paid canvassers.

...
The key ruling came in the finding that neither campaign met the affidavit requirement for paid canvassers in a new state law that requires them to pass a criminal background check.

The law requires petitioners to obtain from the State Police state and federal background checks. Republican Secretary of State John Thurston, in rejecting the petitions, said affidavits for these measures said the campaigns had “acquired” rather than “passed” background checks.

North Dakota Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting, Redistricting, and Election Process Changes Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
It would have applied to all Congressional and state offices.

North Dakota High Court Blocks Election-Reform Measure From November Ballot

In a unanimous decision, the justices granted a writ of injunction to keep Measure 3 off the ballot. The high court found petitioners engaged in deceptive practices while collecting signatures by omitting key information when presenting the measure to voters.

“The petition does not comply with the constitutional requirement that it contain the full text of the measure,” the court wrote in a per curiam opinion. “Embedding a statute into the Constitution, which by definition is a law inferior to the Constitution and subject to change by normal legislative procedure, would threaten the sanctity of our fundamental law.”

What flubs.

 

[lpetrich]

Nonpartisan election measure moves to St. Louis’ November ballot | Politics | stltoday.com

Under that process, residents cast a vote for as many candidates for an office as they want in the city primary of odd-numbered years.

Something called approval voting. It was adopted as an alternative to RCV, because it does not require new voting machines.

The top two vote-getters then would advance to a runoff in the April general election.

The new system would replace the city’s traditional partisan setup in which voters pick party nominees in March who then run in an April general election.

But because St. Louis is heavily Democratic, the Democratic primary has been the de facto general election for many decades.

That’s allowed some candidates to emerge as the party nominee and eventual winner by getting less than a majority of votes in a multi-candidate field.

Primary elections as de facto general elections, that is very common in areas of the nation where one party or the other dominates.

 

[lpetrich]

Campaigners in these states are attempting to get nonpartisan top-two elections on the ballot for 2022.

Nevada Top-Two Primary Initiative (2022) - Ballotpedia
Top-two elections for all Congressional and state offices.

Florida Top-Two Open Primary for Federal Office Initiative (2022) - Ballotpedia
Top-two elections for all Congressional offices.

A top-two election has a nonpartisan/blanket/jungle primary where the top two candidates advance to the general election.


My source:

Alaska, Massachusetts, Mississippi & North Dakota all have electoral reform on the ballot this November, This is the most Electoral Reform on the ballot in the 21st century. (10 others failed to get the required signatures or are currently in the courts) : EndFPTP

Yes, there's a subreddit named EndFPTP on Reddit.

 

[lpetrich]

Initiatives that failed to get on the ballot for various reasons:

Arizona Voting and Campaign Finance Policies Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
Automatic registration, easier voting, etc.

California Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
RCV in primaries and general elections for Presidential and all Congressional and state elections. The State Senate will be changed from having 40 single-member districts to 8 5-member districts.

In RCV primary elections, the top two candidates, and also any others who won more than 20% in any round of the vote counting, will advance to the general elections. The exception is for the State Senate, where 10 candidates will be selected in the primaries for each district. In the Senate primaries and general elections, the elections will be by multiseat RCV (STV).

California Unicameral Nonpartisan Legislature Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
The state would replace its two legislative houses with 80 and 40 members each with a single one with 250 members, one much like Nebraska's one.

I find it curious that more states have not done what Nebraska has done. It seems more efficient that way.

Colorado Establish Approval Voting System Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
Approval voting in primary and general elections for all state and local offices.

Florida Top-Two Open Primary for State and Federal Office Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
Top-two elections for all Congressional and state offices.

Maine Ranked-Choice Voting for Presidential Elections Referendum (2020) - Ballotpedia
Repealing RCV for Presidential primaries and general elections.

Massachusetts Top-Two Primary Elections Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
Top-two elections for all Congressional and state offices, and for some county offices.

Missouri Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
RCV for all the state's statewide general elections - elections of the United States Senator, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Treasurer, and State Auditor.

Nevada Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
RCV for all Congressional, state, and local offices. Primaries eliminated.

Nevada Single Transferable Vote and Multimember Senate Districts Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia
The Nevada Senate will get 4 multimember districts, each with 5 Senators, with a total of 20 Senators. It currently has 21 Senators. Elections for the State Senate will be STV ones (multiseat RCV ones). The State Assembly will have a number of members that is at least one more than twice the number of State Senators.

New Mexico Runoff Elections Amendment (2020) - Ballotpedia
"The ballot measure would have authorized the New Mexico State Legislature to pass legislation providing for runoff elections."

 

[lpetrich]

Why ranked choice voting will improve American elections: Yang, Weld - "It’s time we bring our presidential primary process into the 21st Century by adopting ranked choice voting."

Republican ones currently use winner-take-all, while Democratic ones currently use proportional representation, with delegates in proportion to the votes that are over 15% of the total.

This year, Alaska, Wyoming, Kansas, and Hawaii used RCV, with instant-runoff counting stopping when the remaining candidates have at least 15% of their total vote. This year, the Democrats of those states voted after Joe Biden was the only candidate remaining, but it is still interesting to see which voters like which sets of candidates. When their favorites drop out of the count, which candidates their next favorites are.

... ranked choice voting allows voters to cast second and third place preferences in case their preferred candidate drops out of the race. In 2020, more than 4.5 million ballots in the Democratic primary were for withdrawn candidates. In 2016, half-a-million votes were cast for candidates who were no longer running in the Republican primary.

In RCV, one can vote for a fallback in case one's favorite doesn't win, thus avoiding that problem.

Then mentioning voting in downballot elections and coming votes in Alaska and Massachusetts on having RCV in state elections.

Ranked choice provides many benefits at all levels. Research shows more women and people of color run and win with this reform. Because candidates seek second place votes, negative campaigning is diminished. Barriers for new competition will be reduced for candidates outside of both major parties.

In cities, ranked choice voting eliminates the need for costly, low-turnout runoff elections; New York City — where the other of us casts his vote — approved a ranked choice voting measure in 2019 with 74% support, and the city will save more than $20 million per election.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I beat lpetrich to this?!

Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer cleared the way Tuesday night for ranked-choice voting to be used in Maine, delivering a blow to Republican challengers.

In September, Maine's Supreme Court had sided with the state's Democratic secretary of state and rejected a Republican challenge to the system, which allows voters to rank all the candidates by preference and for a voter's next choice to be considered if their first candidate doesn't have enough votes to be viable. The winner must have more than 50% of the votes.

Republicans in the state asked the high court to step in and put the state Supreme Court opinion on hold. The petition went to Breyer, who has jurisdiction over the lower court.

Big news! Granted, with a 6-3 majority, SCOTUS could rule that Republicans losing in elections in any manner is unconstitutional. For now, Maine is set.

 

[lpetrich]

Voters approve ranked choice voting in five cities - FairVote
noting
Election Results HQ - FairVote
Also
Key Ballot Measures 2020 | Live Election Results & Maps by State

There was a big disappointment. Massachusetts voters rejected Question 2 by 54.9% - 45.1%, despite a lot of politicians supporting it. A few rejected it, however, and many of the voters seemed unfamiliar with it.

Alaska's RCV effort is still up in the air.
Votes tip in favor of election-reform measure as Alaska counts thousands more absentee ballots - Anchorage Daily News

Ballot Measure 2 is a three-part proposal that would put state candidates into a combined primary election for each office, and the top four vote-getters — regardless of party — would advance to a ranked-choice general election. It would also require campaign donors to more fully disclose the source of certain contributions in some races.

Florida's Amendment 3 also failed. It would have implemented a top-two system like what CA and WA have, though for state offices. It got 57% - 43%, a majority, but below the 60% threshold for passing.

 

[lpetrich]

But five cities now have RCV: Albany and Eureka CA, Boulder CO, and Bloomington and Minnetonka MN.

Boulder CO had a system where its city council elects its mayor from its members, a parliamentary sort of system. This year's vote switched it to a separately-elected mayor, one elected with RCV.

The two states with the most RCV use are California and Minnesota. Where is Ranked Choice Voting Used? - Fairvote Years are adoption and first use.

CA: San Francisco 2002 2004, Berkeley 2004 2010, San Leandro 2000 2010, Oakland 2006 2010 - Palm Desert 2020, Albany 2020, Eureka 2020
All but Palm Desert and Eureka are in the San Francisco Bay Area, and Eureka is to the north of that region.

MN: Minneapolis 2006 2009, St. Paul 2009 2011, St. Louis Park 2018 2019 - Bloomington 2020, Minnetonka 2020
That's the Twin Cities and three of their suburbs.

ME: Portland (mayor) 2010 2011, Maine 2016 2018

Albany CA will have a multimember version of IRV for its city council and school board.

 

[lpetrich]

Why did MA Question 2 fail?

Ranked-choice opponents peddled ‘alternative facts’ - Media need to call out disinformation in campaigns

I LEARNED IMPORTANT lessons from my experience as chair of the Yes on 2 campaign that I believe are valuable for anyone who wants to do the hard work of political reform. One stands out: Lies and disinformation have become normal, accepted parts of American politics. In this “alternative facts” era, people feel free to use disinformation and outright lies to support policy positions — even here in Massachusetts.

Author Evan Falchuk conceded that his side lost, then continued with how in one California election, most voters ranked only 3 out of 9 candidates, but left out an important fact: the ballots allowed only 3 preferences. EF thought that he was misinformed, but a few days later in another debate, that opponent repeated what he said earlier.

Opponents regularly made the false (and, frankly, offensive) argument that ranked-choice voting discriminates against black and Hispanic voters because the ballots are too complicated. Opponents cited a single, widely discredited study and chose to ignore a mountain of credible research — and years of experience — that shows that ranked-choice voting actually helps increase turnout, voter participation, and representation among black and Hispanic voters. Why would any decent, honorable person make a false argument like this?

He then complained that debate moderators are not doing enough to counter arguments like this one. He also complained about attempting to be even-handed by presenting both sides.

 

[lpetrich]

Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting and Campaign Finance Laws Initiative (2020) - Ballotpedia It passed 50.55% - 49.45%.

However,

On December 1, 2020, the Alaskan Independence Party, Scott Kohlhaas, Robert M. Bird, and Kenneth P. Jacobus sued the state in superior court to declare Ballot Measure 2 as unconstitutional. Plaintiffs argue that Ballot Measure 2 violated their rights to free political association, free speech, and due process under the First and Fourteenth Amendments of the U.S. Constitution and Article 1 of the Alaska Constitution.

Original document:
Kohlhaas v. State Complaint - DocumentCloud

 

[lpetrich]

While she was on her first campaign, AOC described New York State's voting laws as being as bad as Deep-South states. She'd go canvassing and she'd sometimes find only a few people in an apartment building registered to vote.

Reform efforts have long been obstructed by the Independent Democratic Caucus among state senators there, some Democrats who cooperate with Republicans.

But in 2019, Democrats could dominate both the House and the Senate, and they soon passed this: Democrats plan sweeping election reform package next week

Bills that are due to pass on Monday will limit the amount of money limited liability companies can give to campaigns, create a system of early voting, combine New York’s federal and state primaries, make it easier for people to vote by affidavit after they move to a new county, and let people pre-register to vote when they turn 16. And constitutional amendments that would need voter approval in 2021 would set New York on the path to allowing voters to register on Election Day and submit their ballots by mail.

At least some of those bills passed, like early voting and combining Federal and state primaries.

 

[Trausti]

At least some of those bills passed, like [...] combining Federal and state primaries.

Why weren't they doing that already? Bonkers.

 

[lpetrich]

It looks like more to come. Senate Democrats to start supermajority with package of election reforms

Monday’s session will focus mostly on bills that aim to improve the way absentee ballots are handled.

That will include legislation to permanently allow people to request their ballots online (rather than by mailing or faxing the request to a board of elections, as was the case before 2020), create an online portal where voters can see if their ballots have been received and counted, and establish ballot drop-boxes throughout the state.

One bill from Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris would have boards start counting absentee ballots prior to Election Day.

Then about how the NY-22 ballots are still being counted and argued over.

Another would say that ballots in which "the express intent of the voter is unambiguous” should always be counted.

“We’ve seen in some races here in New York that certain ballots were cast aside because they had stray marks or some other technical deficiency, and we’ll be passing a bill that says if the voter’s intent is clear, that vote should count,” said Elections Committee Chair Zellnor Myrie (D-Brooklyn).

On Tuesday, the Senate is also expected to pass a number of constitutional amendments that first passed in 2019 and 2020. Once they are passed by the Assembly, they’ll be slated to appear on the ballot as referenda in November.

They include:

• Voting by mail.
• Registering to vote up to Election Day.
• Redistricting changes
• Removing archaic language from the state constitution
• Making it easier for the state to conduct its own census

Redistricting changes would include educing the ability of Senate Republicans to block Democratic-drawn maps, but that seems like a recipe for gerrymandering. What we need is nonpartisan redistricting, and ideally, multimember districts.