• Welcome to the Internet Infidels Discussion Board.

What Happened to the 2014 US Stock Market Crash?

 
 
 
S

semiopen

Junior Member
Joined
Dec 11, 2008
Messages
86
Location
NJ
Basic Beliefs
Secular, Jewish
Ruy Lopez and I had some friendly discussions on FRDB about market cycles.

He wasn't easy to pin down on actual time frames but finally one thing he said was certain was that there would be a nasty market crash in 2014. Not being much of a prophet, I wasn't sure this wouldn't happen, but now (with two weeks left) it seems like it's not going to.

Anyway, I made a New Year's resolution last year to mention this (with my usual tact and class) if events didn't exactly pan out in Ruy's direction.

I guess the lesson is that it's hard to play long term cycles.

Speaking of cycles, at the end of 2012, Ruy also predicted gold would advance parabolically from $1600/ounce and recommended buying in stages up to $2000. I was critical of this and was accused of having a short term orientation. Two years later gold is at about $1200 per ounce - I'm starting to wonder if it is bottoming.
 
Corporate profits are at an all time high and stock prices are being pushed further up by corporate buy backs of stocks. I think that most forecasts of problems in the market were based on the ending of QE by the Federal Reserve Bank. But the money that they were pumping into the market was a relative drop in the bucket. And they tapered off the buying of bonds to minimize the impact of the program ending.

The market has reached something of a ceiling as far as share prices but dividends are high. Interest rates are effectively zero, bond prices can only drop from here. Bottom line is that there is a lot of financial capital out there and the stock market is the only game in town for the ever increasing amounts of money going to the wealthy.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom