When to expect US Nov 3 election results?

[lpetrich]

538 has a comprehensive guide: When Do Polls Close? When Should We Expect Election Results? | FiveThirtyEight

There’s a good chance we won’t know who won the presidential election on election night. More people than ever are voting by mail this year due to the pandemic, and mail ballots take longer to count than ballots cast at polling places. But because each state has its own rules for how votes are counted and reported, some will report results sooner than others. Those disparate rules may also make initial returns misleading: The margins in some states may shift toward Democrats as mail ballots (which are overwhelmingly cast by Democrats) are counted, while states that release mail ballots first may experience a shift toward Republicans as Election Day votes are tallied.

I'll sort the states by poll-closing time. All times Eastern.

• 7 pm: GA m, IN m, KY m, SC a, VA m, VT a
• 7:30 pm: NC m, OH m, WV m
• 8 pm: AL a, CT s, DC s, DE a, FL a, IL m, MA m, MD s, ME m, MO a, MS s, NH a, NJ s, OK a, PA s, RI m, TN a
• 8:30 pm: AR a
• 9 pm: AZ s, CO a, KS m, LA m, MI m, MN m, ND m, NE a, NM m, NY s, SD m, TX m, WI m, WY a
• 10 pm: IA m, MT a, NV s, UT s
• 11 pm: CA s, ID a, OR a, WA s
• midnight ("12 pm"): HI a
• 1 am next day ("13 pm"): AK s

a = nearly all, m = most but not all, s = only some

For other timezones, see Time Zone Map
As of this writing: Central: -1, Mountain: -2, Pacific: -3, Britain: +5, Central Europe: +6, Thailand: +11, NE Australia: +14, SE Australia: +15

The upshot for the presidential race is that we should have a pretty good idea of where things are headed on election night, even if no candidate is able to clinch 270 electoral votes (which is the threshold required to win) until later in the week. We should get near-complete results in Florida in a matter of hours; Arizona and North Carolina will release the vast majority of their ballots very quickly, although if the race is too close to call they may not provide a final answer for days. Georgia and Texas should tally most ballots on Nov. 3, but counting may stretch into Wednesday or Thursday. We should know the winner in Wisconsin by Wednesday morning; Michigan and Pennsylvania, by contrast, will probably take until the end of the week.

As the vote counts come in, we will see how good the polls were, and we may be able to find correction factors for estimating likely results for the other states.

 

[Tom Sawyer]

It kind of looks like things are breaking Biden's way and if a blue wave ends up happening, that will be very clear very early on.

Of course, I said the same kind of thing four years ago and I have zero faith in the American people, so I'm less than hopeful about that.

 

[Jarhyn]

It kind of looks like things are breaking Biden's way and if a blue wave ends up happening, that will be very clear very early on.

Of course, I said the same kind of thing four years ago and I have zero faith in the American people, so I'm less than hopeful about that.

To be fair, this year there is a much higher focus on "vote anyway, even if you think it's a sure thing, even if in your state you think it is a lost cause. Vote. Vote. Vote."

Every time the subject comes up, my suggestion is that the reverse Tinkerbell effect is in play: the only way for the election to not be in contention is to vote as if it IS going to be in contention.

 

[Gospel]

It kind of looks like things are breaking Biden's way and if a blue wave ends up happening, that will be very clear very early on.

Of course, I said the same kind of thing four years ago and I have zero faith in the American people, so I'm less than hopeful about that.

To be fair, this year there is a much higher focus on "vote anyway, even if you think it's a sure thing, even if in your state you think it is a lost cause. Vote. Vote. Vote."

Every time the subject comes up, my suggestion is that the reverse Tinkerbell effect is in play: the only way for the election to not be in contention is to vote as if it IS going to be in contention.

Don't forget that Trump provides a substantial amount of motivation for both sides; thus the early voting turnout already being over half the amount of 2016's final count. It's almost like Trump doesn't know his campaign strategy is working both for and against him. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It kind of looks like things are breaking Biden's way and if a blue wave ends up happening, that will be very clear very early on.

Nope. This is America not Canada! This thread goes into the drama regarding when absentee ballots start getting counted.

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado provide the window into knowing whether it is over quickly if Biden wins Ohio or Florida or if Colorado is won convincingly (for extrapolated Nevada). PA has some counties aren't counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday, so if the people vote for Trump in Florida and North Carolina, and Ohio, we have to wait for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And if the victory margin is smaller than the absentees... *sigh*

New Hampshire could be one of the canaries still. If that is coming in at 10+%, that can't be good for PA. In PA, absentee votes start based on when counties decide to do it... so some start on Wednesday! The big ones will generally start early, so Trump will likely be down and need to comeback.

Texas is interesting based on their high level of turnout, with early turnout already surpassing 2016, and most of that in-person. But with a million absentee ballots, they won't be able to call that state as I doubt Biden, if winning there is even possible, would win by that much.

We desperately need Biden to win Florida or Ohio on Election Night. We won't survive a prolonged election.

 

[Rhea]

Also hoping for a clear strong win in Florida to ease the tension!

 

[Harry Bosch]

It kind of looks like things are breaking Biden's way and if a blue wave ends up happening, that will be very clear very early on.

Nope. This is America not Canada! This thread goes into the drama regarding when absentee ballots start getting counted.

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Colorado provide the window into knowing whether it is over quickly if Biden wins Ohio or Florida or if Colorado is won convincingly (for extrapolated Nevada). PA has some counties aren't counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday, so if the people vote for Trump in Florida and North Carolina, and Ohio, we have to wait for Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. And if the victory margin is smaller than the absentees... *sigh*

New Hampshire could be one of the canaries still. If that is coming in at 10+%, that can't be good for PA. In PA, absentee votes start based on when counties decide to do it... so some start on Wednesday! The big ones will generally start early, so Trump will likely be down and need to comeback.

Texas is interesting based on their high level of turnout, with early turnout already surpassing 2016, and most of that in-person. But with a million absentee ballots, they won't be able to call that state as I doubt Biden, if winning there is even possible, would win by that much.

We desperately need Biden to win Florida or Ohio on Election Night. We won't survive a prolonged election.

Yea, it sucks. We can't win either a prolonged election or a close one. All the advantages are the republicans.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

538

National polls - Biden is up +8.6%
Florida - Biden is up +2.1%
North Carolina - Biden is up +2.4%
Georgia - Biden is up +1.8%
Iowa - Biden is up +0.1%
Ohio - Trump is up +0.9%
Texas - Trump is up +1.0%
New Hampshire - Biden is up +11.1%
Minnesota - Biden is up +8.9%
Nevada - Biden is up +5.8%

Trump's big problem is Republicans who do not support him and will hold their noses and vote for Biden.
Pew surveys in September show only 65% of Democrats support Trump, mean 94% will not support Trump. Republican support for Trump was 87%, which means 13% will not support Trump. 31% of Independents support Trump. All those Republicans who will vote in person may be an ugly surprise for Trump.

 

[ideologyhunter]

We'll get results by 10 p.m., and it'll be Trump declaring that his pollsters -- and he has 'the very best pollsters, as you all know' -- have told him that he has won; that he is proud to get four more years and would love to kiss all of us; that the crazy radical left is trying to dump millions of fraudulent votes into the polling places but his lawyers are already fighting that; that he knows there will be street criminals burning and looting in Democrat-led cities, but he has army units on call to swoop in and establish law 'n' order. The last crickets of 2020 will be heard over Republican dissent to his announcements. Wednesday morning, at Independence Mall in Philadelphia, the Liberty Bell caretakers will discover that overnight a stress fracture has caused the bell to crack apart into two large fragments.