Who will be the 2016 Republican Nominee?

[Derec]

Silly Wild Ass Guess

More like educated guess.

Palin, Romney, Rick Perry, and Rand Paul.

You are underestimating Rand Paul I think. He will have his niche (pseudolibertarian) kind of to himself while several others will have to share if they all run - Christie/Romney/Bush/Kasich as mainstream governors or Cruz/Rubio as young hispanic senators.

Ok, an ugly butt faced version of Bill…

Fair enough.

 

[Derec]

That's all fine and dandy, but that assumes republican voters will select for the best electable candidate, and not the most rabid base-pleasing one.

This doesn't fit the recent history. You have Romney and McCain, two moderates hated by the Tea Party. In fact, McCain was pressured into taking Palin to appeal to the base, they disliked him so much.
Even W ran as a "compassionate conservative" in 2000.

I'd bet (but only a symbolic euro, mind you) on Santorum. Base pleasing, campaign money, former number two, knows the drill... He has all the qualities to go through the primaries (of course, then winning the election will be another matter)

He has the runner-up bonus (and many previous GOP runners up won the nomination - McCain, Romney, elder Bush, Reagan) but he is almost an accidental runner-up. More like the last man standing after the base threw a series of mooks at Romney - Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich - all wore the "anybody but Romney" crown for a while.
If he runs, I do not think he will go that far again.

 

[Derec]

John Kasich almost has to be the guy, unless there is something hiding in the shadows. He is a Governor of a critical battleground state and won elections by good margins. He comes across as a "moderate" while actually being rather conservative. He has put forth seriously insane tax reforms that looks great in the short term to make him appear competent. He is mainstream, so he'd have the backing of the establishment, and while appearing "moderate", could get enough support from the whackos of the Republican Party. His strongest quality is his ability to keep his mouth shut regarding moral issues, and he never brings up rape. (That makes a Republican electable in the US)

He is what Scott Walker wishes he was. The only legit opponent is Jeb Bush, but I don't know if the country wants a monarchy. I could barely handle another Clinton. Forget a third Bush! Anyone else in that list likely loses by a landslide in '16. I think Kasich can win.

Then vote for him in the poll why don't ya. I tend to agree with him. I think he could become the consensus establishment candidate and win the nomination much easier than Romney did in 2012. After that he'd be a formidable threat against anybody the Dems put up. Against Hillary? Forgettaboutit, she'd be better off staying home baking cookies for the granddaughter.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Obviously, who knows.
My druthers: one of their truly crazy, drooling zanies, like Cruz or Pastorum.
My depressed guess: Kasich, so the rest of the country can experience our Ohio Miracle. Lower taxes (Whoopee!!) meaning every decent Ohio community has passed its own levies to achieve civilization. John Kasich, a real man of the people. You can tell 'cuz he gives most every speech in shirt sleeves.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

John Kasich almost has to be the guy, unless there is something hiding in the shadows. He is a Governor of a critical battleground state and won elections by good margins. He comes across as a "moderate" while actually being rather conservative. He has put forth seriously insane tax reforms that looks great in the short term to make him appear competent. He is mainstream, so he'd have the backing of the establishment, and while appearing "moderate", could get enough support from the whackos of the Republican Party. His strongest quality is his ability to keep his mouth shut regarding moral issues, and he never brings up rape. (That makes a Republican electable in the US)

He is what Scott Walker wishes he was. The only legit opponent is Jeb Bush, but I don't know if the country wants a monarchy. I could barely handle another Clinton. Forget a third Bush! Anyone else in that list likely loses by a landslide in '16. I think Kasich can win.

Then vote for him in the poll why don't ya. I tend to agree with him. I think he could become the consensus establishment candidate and win the nomination much easier than Romney did in 2012. After that he'd be a formidable threat against anybody the Dems put up. Against Hillary? Forgettaboutit, she'd be better off staying home baking cookies for the granddaughter.

Why do I always feel the need to take a shower after reading a Derec post?

 

[Derec]

Why do I always feel the need to take a shower after reading a Derec post?

Why exactly do you feel the need to take a shower?

 

[funinspace]

Why do I always feel the need to take a shower after reading a Derec post?

Why exactly do you feel the need to take a shower?

Yeah, just what were you two doing?

 

[funinspace]

You are underestimating Rand Paul I think. He will have his niche (pseudolibertarian) kind of to himself while several others will have to share if they all run - Christie/Romney/Bush/Kasich as mainstream governors or Cruz/Rubio as young hispanic senators.

Yeah RP will have his niche, just as RP Sr. had his niche, for all the good it did him. The Repug machine didn't even have to try to beat RP Sr. down, as they did with Steve Forbes when he threatened the red apple cart back in 1996. Even if RP manages to get into the playing field, the neocons will sick their pit-bulls on him and the Moral Minority will throw monkey shit on him daily, until he is too stinky.

 

[Wiploc]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

 

[Derec]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

It looks like he is eligible.
Is Ted Cruz, born in Canada, eligible to run for president?
Although with Obama there was this school of thought among some conservatives that held that even if Obama was born in Hawaii he was not a "natural born citizen" because both his parents weren't citizens. I wonder what they think of Cruz's eligibility.

 

[Wiploc]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

It looks like he is eligible.
Is Ted Cruz, born in Canada, eligible to run for president?
Although with Obama there was this school of thought among some conservatives that held that even if Obama was born in Hawaii he was not a "natural born citizen" because both his parents weren't citizens. I wonder what they think of Cruz's eligibility.

Thanks. That's compelling.

This part, ""Unfortunately, we cannot say for sure without either a definitive Supreme Court ruling, or an amendment to clarify the Constitution," reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from law school:

"Law is a prediction of what the courts will do."

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

He isn't eligible because he is technically nuts.

 

[funinspace]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

He isn't eligible because he is technically nuts.

Yeah, and he's a dirty atheist commie infiltrator as well.

 

[untermensche]

Ted Cruz isn't eligible, is he? Naturalized rather than a born American?

He isn't eligible because he is technically nuts.

This makes him a great candidate for the Republican primaries. Which is usually an embarrassing Sideshow.

 

[Derec]

Jeb Bush resigns from all posts in preparation for his run, including perhaps most importantly as W's brother.
He is also leading Chris Christie by a wide margin (23-13) in a recent poll, but polls at this early stage are only of limited utility.

Could this be in our future?

 

[Terrell]

That's pretty funny, resigning as W's brother. I'd agree it does look like Jeb is going to run. TBH I wonder if we'd be better off with neither Hillary nor Jeb running, but I'd have to see the alternatives first. Of course Congress matters too.

 

[Derec]

Romney not running.
To the two people who voted for him in the poll, better luck next time.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Why is it no one has voted for Christie. I know he's a blowhole with the managerial skills of a badger but shouldn't name recognition get him some crumbs at least?

 

[Derec]

Why is it no one has voted for Christie. I know he's a blowhole with the managerial skills of a badger but shouldn't name recognition get him some crumbs at least?

I would have liked him to be the nominee, especially we share a body type and us horizontally challenged Americans have been underrepresented in the presidency since Bathtub Taft.
However, he lost a lot of momentum due to Bridgegate.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Why is it no one has voted for Christie. I know he's a blowhole with the managerial skills of a badger but shouldn't name recognition get him some crumbs at least?

I would have liked him to be the nominee, especially we share a body type and us horizontally challenged Americans have been underrepresented in the presidency since Bathtub Taft.
However, he lost a lot of momentum due to Bridgegate.

He lost moderate momentum to Bridgegate. He lost a ton of Tea Party momentum for not kicking Obama in the crotch when they met to go over Sandy.

Maybe things are lining up for a Bush/Kasich ticket. I didn't think Bush would want to run.