It is not a rule, and I never said it is a rule. So, what is with the putting decision rule within quotation marks? It just looks to be more of the same tired disingenuousness which is just who/what you are.
As I said, you have supposed it - not as a rule, but - as a condition alleged to be necessary (let's just jump ahead and say) for a warranted decision (what I previously anticipated with the "modified decision" designation).
The quotation marks flagged the phrase because you repeatedly treat my evidential criterion as if I were proposing a procedure for making decisions. I’m not. I’m specifying what counts as evidence in the first place: an observation E is evidence for H₁ over H₂ precisely when the likelihoods differ, i.e., P(E|H₁) ≠ P(E|H₂). That is a conceptual discriminator, not a policy for choosing actions. Your aside about my motives has been a recurring jab; we’ve already addressed that tactic and it doesn’t touch the criterion.
You’re still miscasting the point. Differential bearing is a necessary condition for calling something “evidence,” not for making a “warranted decision.” Decisions depend on priors, utilities, and context. Evidence, by contrast, is about whether E shifts the odds at all. If P(E|H₁)=P(E|H₂), E does not favor either side and so is not evidential between them. If they differ, it is evidential—regardless of whether a final decision is made.
You are right back to the erroneous notion that evidence is evidence only after - and only in situations for which - there is basis for deciding between hypotheses. And, yet, there can be evidence without and before any such decision. The basis for the deciding is not the evidence in and of itself.
You’ve reversed what I said. Because evidence is defined by unequal likelihoods, it is explicitly prior to any decision. Before choosing anything, one can ask, “Would E be more probable if H₁ were true than if H₂ were true?” If yes, E is evidence for H₁ over H₂. If no, it isn’t. Nothing in that requires a decision to have been taken; it only requires stating the competing hypotheses clearly enough to compute or estimate P(E|H).
Probabilities are perspective-susceptible; that is to say that those calculations are perspective-dependent, and that is to say that probabilities depend upon the possibilities taken into account along with those that are ignored intentionally or accidentally.
Shucks, there is that pesky possibilities issue yet again. My oh my, there is no getting away from having to think in terms of possibilities. Well, that's not quite right because, obviously, people often don't bother themselves in terms of possibilities while they think.
Correct—and that’s why competent analysis makes the background explicit. We write P(E|H,K), with K denoting shared background information. Dependence on K is not a bug; it’s how we prevent hidden assumptions. If you think K is too narrow or excludes a live alternative, propose the additional hypothesis and its predictions. Until “divine inspiration” is stated so that it yields testable likelihoods different from the human-origin hypothesis under agreed K, it does no evidential work. Re-stating that “probabilities depend on possibilities considered” merely underscores my point: unless you supply a divine-origin hypothesis with observable consequences that change P(E|H_divine,K) relative to P(E|H_human,K), appeals to “inspiration” remain evidentially idle.
There is no getting away from having to think in terms of possibilities - if one wants to have "warrant". That is because warrant is determined in consideration of the possibilities considered.
Agreed that warrant depends on the live possibilities—but you have to state them precisely enough to yield different predictions. In practice we write hypotheses against shared background K. If H_human explains Paul’s letters (ordinary Greco-Roman epistolary form, situational rhetoric, intertexts, and a manuscript tradition full of human copying errors) and H_divine is left so vague that it predicts the very same observations, then there is no change in likelihoods: P(E|H_divine,K) ≈ P(E|H_human,K). On that footing there is no additional warrant for “not of human origin.” If you want warrant for a non-human source, you must specify H_divine so that it makes different, checkable expectations about the artifacts we actually have. Until then, enumerating “possibilities” without differentiated content does not generate warrant.
Just more of that repugnant disingenuousness.
Understanding can be recast as an explanation to oneself. There is no difference between understanding and explanation that is relevant here. That is why there is no evidence without understanding.
The "competing" you keep going on about remains always irrelevant, because it is unnecessary for evidence to be evidence. Repeating that "competing" over and over makes no difference.
We’ve been through the jabs; they don’t address the substance. The criterion stands: an observation E is evidence for H₁ over H₂ when the likelihoods differ—P(E|H₁,K) ≠ P(E|H₂,K). That is a content test, not a personality test.
Interpretation is unavoidable, but the relevant “understanding” here is public and checkable: stating H, H′, K, and asking whether E was antecedently more expected on one than the other. That does not depend on anyone’s private introspection. It’s the same in science and in court. In science, smoke is evidence of fire over fog because P(smoke|fire) > P(smoke|fog); in court, a defendant’s fingerprint at a scene is evidence of presence over absence because the likelihoods differ. If two rivals make the same prediction, E is evidentially neutral between them. Calling that “private understanding” is a category mistake.
Competing hypotheses are exactly what give “evidence” its meaning. Without at least an implicit rival, “evidence” collapses into “description.” Saying “there is a letter” is a description; saying “the pattern of genre, rhetoric, and error rates fits ordinary human composition and transmission better than a non-human source” is an evidential claim because it distinguishes H_human from H_divine. Apply it here: the observable features of the Pauline corpus—human languages, culture-bound argument, and a transmission record full of ordinary scribal variation—are all maximally expected on H_human. Unless you specify H_divine so that those same features would have been improbable, the likelihood ratio stays ~1 and the origin claim adds no warrant. That is the entire point, and it has been consistent throughout despite the repeated attempts to wave it away.
Another of the same old same old error in logic. Since evidence can be evidence - or said alternatively, if it is possible for evidence to be evidence - without being dispositive and without being probabilistically distinguishing, there can still be evidence with regards to Paul's inspiration. It just happens to turn out that such evidence is of no moment with regards to the message which expresses understanding, because the message is invariant across the possible inspiration contexts. And that means that your blinkered focus on Paul's inspiration is an obsession of no significance as well as an obsession with absolutely no dispositional significance.
Evidence does not need to be dispositive, but it does need to discriminate. If an observation would be about as expected whether inspiration occurred or not, then it is not evidence for inspiration; it is merely consistent with it. That is the standard in science and in court: a fact counts as evidence for H₁ over H₂ when it is antecedently more likely on H₁ than on H₂. The Pauline data we actually have—ordinary Greco-Roman letter forms, situational argumentation, culture-bound assumptions, and the familiar profile of scribal variation—are fully expected on ordinary human authorship and transmission. Unless you specify a model of “divine inspiration” that makes those same features more expected than the human model, nothing in the letters or their manuscript history raises the probability of inspiration. Calling that requirement “blinkered” doesn’t touch it; it’s how evidential claims work. And the “invariance” claim is simply asserted, not shown. If origin were non-human, you would expect at least one differentiator in principle—error immunity, invariant transmission, novel information beyond contemporaneous sources, or successful risky predictions. We observe none. On evidential grounds, the origin claim carries no weight.
The fact that Paul's understanding is invariant across all of the possible inspiration contexts means that the correct and proper focus would be set upon Paul's understanding expressed/preached as the allegedly good news. This follows from even your own erroneous depiction regarding the nature of evidence. If there is not evidence as evidence-for deciding which one of the inspiration "hypotheses" is in any way relatively more warranted, you are faced with the then-what.
Evaluating Paul’s ethics and theology on their human merits is perfectly fine; I’ve been doing exactly that. But it does not rescue the origin claim. Paul didn’t just offer counsel; he asserted “not of human origin” and leveraged that claim in disputes. That is a public assertion about causation, and it is fair game for public standards. Your “invariance” premise is wrong on two fronts. First, historically, the content isn’t invariant: communities developed differing Christologies, eschatologies, and practices, and Paul himself adapts across letters. Second, even if one brackets development, the claim that the same message would be equally expected whether its origin were human or divine concedes my point: if the observable artifacts require no extra cause, the extra cause is unwarranted. The “then-what” is simple and has been my stance throughout—assess the content as human philosophy and ethics, and treat the origin claim as evidentially idle.
Your "belongs" necessarily means "is ignored" because the subjectivity inherent in any perspective is "publicly checkable" in terms of other perspectives. That is the only way to achieve the most trans-contextual and trans-perspectival understandings and expressions. Your approach has no mechanism by which understanding can be further developed. Your approach only seeks to - and can only seek to - generate deference.
Publicly checkable evidence does not ignore subjectivity; it disciplines it. The mechanism for developing understanding is intersubjective testing: rival readings propose expectations, and shared artifacts—texts, variants, historical context—are used to see which expectations survive. That process does not generate deference; it generates constraint. When a claim about origin makes no difference to any publicly testable expectation, it contributes nothing to explanation. Calling for evidence that changes what we should expect to observe is precisely how scholarship advances beyond each person’s private “understanding.”
By your reasoning, evidence is unnecessary for there to be an hypothesis. By your reasoning, it is necessarily the case that there can never be evidence absent multiple hypotheses. By your reasoning, it is a logical necessity that there can never be evidence for a first hypothesis. That is plainly absurd since to refer to evidence for an hypothesis is readily understandable because it is in no way necessarily ambiguous and because it is not necessary that there be multiple hypotheses in order for evidence to be evidence.
The circling back to the insistence that evidence necessarily requires the condition of there being multiple hypotheses incompatible one with the other(s) is evidence for there being a continued disingenuousness on your part.
You are conflating hypothesis formation with hypothesis appraisal. One can coin a first hypothesis without evidence; that is discovery. But the moment you ask whether an observation is evidential for that hypothesis, you are implicitly contrasting it with its negation: H versus not-H. That is already “two hypotheses.” In practice, “evidence for the first hypothesis” means the observation is more expected if H is true than if H is false. This does not make evidence “unnecessary”; it defines what makes something count as evidence at all. Nothing in Paul’s letters or their transmission has been shown to be more expected on “non-human origin” than on ordinary human composition and copying. Without that differential, you have no evidential support for the origin claim.
There’s nothing disingenuous about stating the basic logic of appraisal. Evidence is evidential only relative to alternatives—at the bare minimum H versus not-H. That’s how every serious method works: in Bayesian terms an observation E supports H precisely when P(E|H) exceeds P(E|¬H); in classical testing you assess data against a null versus an alternative. Hypotheses can be generated without rivals, but the instant you ask whether something “counts as evidence,” you are implicitly contrasting it with its negation. That’s not a rhetorical trick; it’s the definition of evidential relevance. Apply it here: identify one observation in Paul’s letters, their language, their redaction, or their manuscript history that is more probable if “not of human origin” is true than if ordinary human composition and transmission are true. You have supplied none. Until you do, the origin claim has zero public warrant and cannot be used to demand deference over rivals.
As has been explained, that is a separate topic. If you genuinely want to discuss that topic, then characterize the "rivals" so that the matter of the attempt at that trumping can be addressed. And then I will know to what extent you have considered sufficiently the rivals matter in terms of the relevant possibilities.
Here are the rivals, by text and content, exactly where Paul deploys “not of human origin” to trump them. In Galatia, Paul is opposing emissaries pressing Gentile circumcision and fuller Torah observance as conditions for belonging. Their warrant was human authority from Jerusalem and continuity with Moses; Paul counters with a non-human warrant, saying he received his gospel “through revelation of Jesus,” then pronounces a curse on any contrary “gospel.” In Corinth, he faces the “super-apostles” who trade on letters of recommendation, rhetorical polish, and visionary boasts; Paul answers by appealing to his own revelations and commission, again grounding superiority in source rather than in better arguments or closer witnesses. In Rome and Philippi he warns against teachers with different Christological and halakhic emphases, and again signals his commission as uniquely authoritative. In each case the dispute is fully human—competing messages, communities, and leadership claims—and Paul’s way of trumping rivals is to invoke a special origin. That makes origin part of his argument, not a tangent, and therefore it is subject to the same evidential test as any other asserted warrant: does anything we can observe in his letters, their language, their argumentative moves, or their manuscript history fit better if a non-human source actually stands behind them than if ordinary human composition and transmission do? The answer is no; all the observable features are exactly what we see in human controversies—rhetoric, appeals to tradition and experience, intra-movement polemic, later copying errors and edits. That is why the origin claim carries no public weight against his rivals.
Your response to the statement referring to the "problems with the very nature of the 'cause' concept" is to repeat the "causal claim" claim combined with the own wording/plain meaning ruse which had already been addressed and obliterated?!?!?!
Your evident disingenuousness simply does not abate. But I still want to highlight one more instance of evident disingenuousness.
There’s nothing to “obliterate” here. “Origin” is a source term; “not of human origin” is a positive source attribution that rules out human causation. Whether you call it inspiration rather than authorship, the proposition still asserts a non-human cause for the content Paul proclaims. Philosophers can debate nuances of causation, but historians still ask the basic evidential question: if a non-human source actually generated this message, what observable consequences would differ from the baseline of human generation? In Paul’s case we do not see any discriminating consequences. The letters are written in ordinary Koine Greek, they use standard Greco-Roman epistolary forms, they argue like other human letters with analogy, scripture, and rhetoric, and their transmission history shows the familiar profile of human copying—variants, corrections, and theological glosses. None of that is more probable on “non-human origin” than on “human origin.” That’s why, as a matter of method, the origin claim does no explanatory work and cannot ground authority over rivals. Interpretation does not deny context; it constrains it. The plain-language sense of Paul’s phrase is exactly a source claim. Because that claim yields no testable, public difference in what we observe, it remains an article of faith, not an evidential trump.
Accusations don’t substitute for analysis. This exact move—asserting ruse or bad faith while repeating the same points—has already been addressed. You have not identified a single textual, historical, or manuscript feature that is antecedently more expected if Paul’s gospel were “not of human origin” than if it were the product of human thought and community transmission. Until you do, the evidential status is settled: the origin claim carries no public warrant, cannot be used to demand deference, and is methodologically idle in adjudicating disputes.
NHC