How should west respond to potential (likely) U.S. invasion of Venezuela?

[barbos]

So far, The West responded with "We need more time to come up with response"

It is more like 'we have no idea what Trump is doing, so it is hard to say one thing or the other'.

But seriously, how is that different from Syria (Obama), Iraq (Bush) and Libya (Obama)? (all have oil)

I'm not certain there are much in the way of similarities are to any of these things. Libya was regime change but just US intel support while on-going. Iraq was regime change via a full blown invasion/occupation and US transition "governance". Syria... that was former ISIS that overthrew Assad. The US didn't quite involve itself in Syria in the same manner regarding any regime change or occupation.

In Venezuela, the only change at the moment is who is serving as President... which is Maduro's VP. The entire Maduro government, except for Maduro is still in some level of power. The conflicting statements by Trump and Rubio have created a ton of confusion as to what is actually going on. We are more looking at what hasn't happened than what is happening. And what hasn't happened is the dissolving of the Venezuelan Government. And certainly no occupation.

What Trump / Rubio are demanding is awkward and how it can be accomodated also seems convoluted... as if somebody made a sudden decision to act... without any viable plan beyond the arrest of Maduro. If Trump said elections would be held in three months, I think the West would be uneasy about the whole thing, but would likely let it be. However, as things stand we don't know where any of this is heading, so condemnation is hard because it isn't known what exactly needs to be condemned.

So you are saying Trump is not yet quite that bad as his two predecessors (Bush and Obama). OK.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So far, The West responded with "We need more time to come up with response"

It is more like 'we have no idea what Trump is doing, so it is hard to say one thing or the other'.

But seriously, how is that different from Syria (Obama), Iraq (Bush) and Libya (Obama)? (all have oil)

I'm not certain there are much in the way of similarities are to any of these things. Libya was regime change but just US intel support while on-going. Iraq was regime change via a full blown invasion/occupation and US transition "governance". Syria... that was former ISIS that overthrew Assad. The US didn't quite involve itself in Syria in the same manner regarding any regime change or occupation.

In Venezuela, the only change at the moment is who is serving as President... which is Maduro's VP. The entire Maduro government, except for Maduro is still in some level of power. The conflicting statements by Trump and Rubio have created a ton of confusion as to what is actually going on. We are more looking at what hasn't happened than what is happening. And what hasn't happened is the dissolving of the Venezuelan Government. And certainly no occupation.

What Trump / Rubio are demanding is awkward and how it can be accomodated also seems convoluted... as if somebody made a sudden decision to act... without any viable plan beyond the arrest of Maduro. If Trump said elections would be held in three months, I think the West would be uneasy about the whole thing, but would likely let it be. However, as things stand we don't know where any of this is heading, so condemnation is hard because it isn't known what exactly needs to be condemned.

So you are saying Trump is not yet quite that bad as his two predecessors (Bush and Obama). OK.

Gawd you are so desperate to "score points".

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The U.S. would come to Taiwan's aid. There's no question about it. It's not a question worth taking seriously. There's also zero evidence that Trump traded Venezuela for Ukraine. Venezuela is in our sphere of influence, which is far, far away from Russian interests. Meanwhile, NATO, along with U.S. support, will continue to aid in Russia's pathetic military failure in Ukraine.

Stop with the paranoia, hyperbole, and wild speculation. It's a waste of bandwidth.

Dude, you aren't reading between the lines. This Venezuela action crossed a line... well several of them. It is too early to tell just how bad this is, but it appears to be pretty bad. It is apparently clear the Trump Admin threw Maduro out of Venezuela without a fucking plan on who or what would replace him. At least the Neocons had that fraud Chalabi in mind. There is no plan for Venezuela, this appears to have just happened on a relative whim.

I said myself that there doesn't appear to be a plan in place.

You quoted a post of mine that had nothing to do with that. In the above-quoted post, I addressed the unfounded hysteria about potential outcomes in other situations.

True, I'd say I didn't finish my thoughts well.

This action and the language coming out of Rubio is indicative of a massive shift in US governance on a global scale. While I wouldn't immediately say Taiwan is doomed, I would say Trump has possibly enacted a brazenly radical Monroe Doctrine. If it is in the Western Hemisphere, it can be ours.

Rubio notes the oil in Venezuela is in "quarantine". That is a remarkably strong statement to make. Especially when the US presumably lacks any military capacity to control the oil at the source.

I'm also curious what the oil companies are thinking as well.

Whatever the oil companies are thinking, we as U.S. citizens will never see any benefit from it. If that were the case, control of Iraqi oil fields would have us at about $1.00 per gallon at the pump.

Oil companies might not like the idea of spending a hundred million in infrastructure that is taken back in 2027 or 2029. Assuming the US has elections again, of course.

Anyway, we threw trillions of military dollars at Iraq and if necessary, we'll do the same thing now.

Less than a trillion, but still a lot.

As for Taiwan, it won't happen. It'd be a costly affair, no doubt about it, but China wouldn't be able to get the job done. They'd be at 50% capacity before they approached Taiwanese shores; and at 50% capacity no military force is viable. They're not going to risk their economy and a potential and even likely widening of the war to Korea, let alone the potential for nuclear war.

I have no idea what Trump would do at this point. An invasion of Taiwan is indeed unworkable. Any merger would be economic or require some new military toy that flattens Taiwan's Government without harming the island.

 

[barbos]

Holy crap. I completely forgot about the Epstein files for the last 3 days. Their strategy is working.

And I don't remember about Monica Levinsky files. Thank you, Yugoslavia.

 

[barbos]

So far, The West responded with "We need more time to come up with response"

It is more like 'we have no idea what Trump is doing, so it is hard to say one thing or the other'.

But seriously, how is that different from Syria (Obama), Iraq (Bush) and Libya (Obama)? (all have oil)

I'm not certain there are much in the way of similarities are to any of these things. Libya was regime change but just US intel support while on-going. Iraq was regime change via a full blown invasion/occupation and US transition "governance". Syria... that was former ISIS that overthrew Assad. The US didn't quite involve itself in Syria in the same manner regarding any regime change or occupation.

In Venezuela, the only change at the moment is who is serving as President... which is Maduro's VP. The entire Maduro government, except for Maduro is still in some level of power. The conflicting statements by Trump and Rubio have created a ton of confusion as to what is actually going on. We are more looking at what hasn't happened than what is happening. And what hasn't happened is the dissolving of the Venezuelan Government. And certainly no occupation.

What Trump / Rubio are demanding is awkward and how it can be accomodated also seems convoluted... as if somebody made a sudden decision to act... without any viable plan beyond the arrest of Maduro. If Trump said elections would be held in three months, I think the West would be uneasy about the whole thing, but would likely let it be. However, as things stand we don't know where any of this is heading, so condemnation is hard because it isn't known what exactly needs to be condemned.

So you are saying Trump is not yet quite that bad as his two predecessors (Bush and Obama). OK.

Gawd you are so desperate to "score points".

I am glad you admit losing them.

 

[Patooka]

Gawd you are so desperate to "score points".

It's all he has. It's why I don't engage with him anymore. It's just the same shit over and over.

 

[barbos]

Gawd you are so desperate to "score points".

It's all he has. It's why I don't engage with him anymore.

Because you keep losing point?

 

[barbos]

Seriously, why are you ganging up on Trump? He is not Hitler. All his henchmen existed in the US government before him.
He just does not hide what US ruling elite wants. His is funded by the same oligarchs democrats are funded.
What's the big difference?

 

[DrZoidberg]

Are you even reading the news?

Since USA took the Venezuelan president into custody, the Venezuelan top guy, it's a signal that anyone in Venezuela is fair game and that USA has the ability and will to do it. The Venezuelan government is now serving at the pleasure of USA.

I don't think you understand how power works. Rules, agreements and constitutions stopped applying when Maduro got lifted out. US jurisdiction doesn't apply in Venezuela. Maduro is still being tried in an American court. The fact that he is anyway is a signal that all of the Americas now come under US jurisdiction. That's what an empire is. It's a power play.

Pay attention who wields the power. Politicians always talk shit. That's never going to change. Of course American diplomats are now saying things to calm people down. To take the edge off the threat. But I'm sure everyone in power in the Americas is paying attention and knows exactly what's what. USA is now ruling Venezuela.

I assume that as soon as power has been transferred to a more US friendly government USA will back off, and let the Venezuelans get on with it. But everyone in Venezuela now knows that USA can be back at any time. That will change things.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's the Triggernometry guys talking about it. FYI, Francis Foster is Venezuelan. They're also upfront about that it's just speculation. Nobody knows what's going to happen.

To sup up:

According to Francis, the word on the street is that the US plan was all along that Delcy Rodriguez was going to take over. She was not next in line to take over after Maduro. That was another guy. Delcy was put in power by Trump. There's the little detail that when Biden issued arrest warrants for the top leadership of the Maduro govornment, Delcy's name was left out. Even though she's Venezuelan communist terrorist/freedom fighter royalty. Suspicious.

Francis affirmed what I suspected, that Venezuela now is a de facto American colony, and will remain so. No matter what says in any consitution. Francis also didn't think democracy is going to happen. Democracies are unpredictable and Trump was Venezuela to stay obedient. If Delcy is a US stooge, then Trump might let her stay in power. Elections can be rigged.

Francis goes on to say that USA taking over is what Venezualans have been hoping for for 26 years now. And everyone knows that Chavez won in a landslide back in 1999. So Venezuelans aren't super excited about democracy. They're quite cool with USA being in control. The lesser of all the many available evils. They're super cool with being Panama 2.

The oil infrastructure in Venezuela now, was originally built by US companies, and nationalised, ie stolen, by the Chavez govornment. So US companies taking it back would be pretty uncontroversial. It's also what the Venezualans, right now, want because they don't have the money to repair and do upkeep on the stuff they have their now. Outside companies coming in now is what is needed to quickly raise output capacity, which the starving Venezuelan people need ASAP.

oh, yeah... and the reason for the attack, according to Francis was that Venezuela was a close ally of North Korea, China, Iran, Russia and every ludicrous James Bond villain dictator of the world. The fact that there's now Hezbollah training camps in Venezuela was the last straw. Venezuela is too close to USA for comfort. While the oil is nice, USA doesn't need the oil. So it's not likely to be a major factor.

That was anyway the views of Francis Foster.

 

[ZiprHead]

Shocking moment woman is arrested during live TV interview

Jessica Plichta, who had organized a protest against the Trump administration's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, was arrested on television.

www-dailymail-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org

 

[robnisch]

Invasion="Special Military Operation".
Invasion="Law Enforcement".
Take your pick.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Are you even reading the news?

Since USA took the Venezuelan president into custody, the Venezuelan top guy, it's a signal that anyone in Venezuela is fair game and that USA has the ability and will to do it. The Venezuelan government is now serving at the pleasure of USA.

Are they now? I keep forgetting how easy regime change is.

I don't think you understand how power works.

Power hinges on the capacity to not merely influence but rather the capacity to coerce a population into following a set of rules. You have already given Trump the nation of Venezuela when you forget about a couple of things. Firstly, the n-word, nationalism. Secondly, on the ground law enforcement. You are looking at a two dimensional picture and swearing it is three dimensional. Removing a President has the potential for destabilizing the ground conditions. You seem to think Trump controls Venezuela, but in the real world, it is much harder to control a territory if you have almost no control inside the territory. What happens if the Venezuelan Government does exactly as Trump asks and the people don't? Or several gangs don't? Whom in the Venezuelan military is going to strike at their citizens, because Trump said to?

Rules, agreements and constitutions stopped applying when Maduro got lifted out. US jurisdiction doesn't apply in Venezuela. Maduro is still being tried in an American court. The fact that he is anyway is a signal that all of the Americas now come under US jurisdiction. That's what an empire is. It's a power play.

Actually we still aren't exactly certain what this is. Certain Trump is using the US military might for his advantage, what is this exactly? Just about resources, regional influence, trying to take over the Western Hemisphere? That is also when the N-word pops up again. We going to revisit the 1960s and 1970s if this is about controlling South America and their elections if they don't go the way Trump wants because of local nationalism?

Pay attention who wields the power. Politicians always talk shit. That's never going to change. Of course American diplomats are now saying things to calm people down. To take the edge off the threat. But I'm sure everyone in power in the Americas is paying attention and knows exactly what's what. USA is now ruling Venezuela.

Just like the US ruled Afghanistan and Iraq. IE, TBD on the ground. Heck, Trump could turn Venezuela into a poor man's Haiti!

I assume that as soon as power has been transferred to a more US friendly government USA will back off, and let the Venezuelans get on with it. But everyone in Venezuela now knows that USA can be back at any time. That will change things.

Currently the US isn't even considering elections or changing the power structure in Venezuela. They are hoping the VP turn P will play ball because he has threatened to kill her otherwise. Even if they play ball, who says the nation as a whole does? There are few things worse in the world than political entropy. And Trump is playing with it and has no idea what can happen.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Currently the US isn't even considering elections or changing the power structure in Venezuela. They are hoping the VP turn P will play ball because he has threatened to kill her otherwise. Even if they play ball, who says the nation as a whole does? There are few things worse in the world than political entropy. And Trump is playing with it and has no idea what can happen.

You said it well.
What a pass for us to reach as a constitutional republic (in outmoded theory.) An aging, sagging xenophobe sitting at a desk, Sharpie in hand, being prodded to action by a circle of testosterone-charged Christian Right xenophobes. I think Kubrick and Sellers would've dropped their option on this plot outline, insisting that it was satire-proof and that 'the public won't buy this nonsense in a thousand years.'

 

[GenesisNemesis]

So how seriously should we take the claims "Venezuelans are celebrating!!11"?

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.89PG4WE

But the images spreading on social media of people in Venezuela crying and thanking the United States are fake.

Reverse image search reveals the earliest version of the clip shared by the TikTok account @curiousmindusa, whose other posts BBC Verify journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh reported are rife with AI-generated content (archived here, here, here, here and here). AFP reached out to @curiousmindusa via direct message but a response was not forthcoming.
Close examination reveals several warped elements which indicate the video was made using AI.

 

[DrZoidberg]

So how seriously should we take the claims "Venezuelans are celebrating!!11"?

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.89PG4WE

But the images spreading on social media of people in Venezuela crying and thanking the United States are fake.

Reverse image search reveals the earliest version of the clip shared by the TikTok account @curiousmindusa, whose other posts BBC Verify journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh reported are rife with AI-generated content (archived here, here, here, here and here). AFP reached out to @curiousmindusa via direct message but a response was not forthcoming.
Close examination reveals several warped elements which indicate the video was made using AI.

There's a curfew in Venezuela. So the images are obviously not from that

 

[TV and credit cards]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So how seriously should we take the claims "Venezuelans are celebrating!!11"?

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.89PG4WE

But the images spreading on social media of people in Venezuela crying and thanking the United States are fake.

Reverse image search reveals the earliest version of the clip shared by the TikTok account @curiousmindusa, whose other posts BBC Verify journalist Shayan Sardarizadeh reported are rife with AI-generated content (archived here, here, here, here and here). AFP reached out to @curiousmindusa via direct message but a response was not forthcoming.
Close examination reveals several warped elements which indicate the video was made using AI.

Well, whatever happy there was, it is gone.

Venezuela’s government has moved quickly to suppress any public expression of support for Maduro’s ouster, launching a nationwide crackdown that has included the detention of journalists, the arrest of civilians and the deployment of armed gangs across the capital.

“It feels like it did after the presidential elections in 2024,” said María, 55, who like others in this story spoke on the condition that they be identified by their first name, or on the condition of anonymity, for fear of reprisals. “We won, but we also lost,” she said, referring to the country’s last elections, in which Maduro claimed victory despite tallies showing the opposition had prevailed.

Mission umm... accomplish?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

 

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

A deal to sell the stuck crude to refiners in the United States would redirect them from China

Exclusive: Venezuela, US in talks to export Venezuelan oil to US, sources say
So is that it? Is it over? Trump stuck his fingers in Xi's rice bowl and nothing more to see here?

Do we need more heavy crude in America? Perhaps the wildest part of this whole thing is the oil angle. This isn't WWII Earth. This isn't oil embargo. Gasoline is $2.25 where I live. We are slowly shifting from the carbon fuels.

Meanwhile, oil is $57 a barrel, which would have been a modest price 15 years ago. We are stealing oil we don't need, that be pricey to sell as is. What are we getting out of it? I mean, just the upper-echelon folks. Who is is winning in this?

Trump's dream is that the US oil companies will go into Venezuela and spend hundreds of millions building oil refineries.
Yet this can turn into a nightmare for USA if Venezuela then nationalizes those refineries. Thanks for the gifts USA!