Have Wary Police Brought an End to the Drop in Crime? The Ferguson effect?

[Axulus]

Violence is rising in many cities across the country. May was by some measures the most crime-ridden month in Baltimore’s history since records started being kept, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Officers say they are reluctant to be proactive because of the vitriol they face. The victims will be law-abiding residents of crime-ridden areas.

In Milwaukee, homicides were up 180 percent by May 17 compared to the same period in 2014.

In Houston, murders were up nearly 100 percent through March. In Chicago, shootings were up 25 percent and homicides up 18 percent through May 24. In New York, murder was up 20 percent and shooting incidents 9 percent through May 31.

Not all cities are experiencing significant crime increases. But enough are to demand attention.

One possible explanation is that officers have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing because of the vitriol they have faced over the last nine months, a hypothesis based on interviews with officers, the observations of commanders, and past experience.The claim, frequently repeated in the media, that police routinely kill young black men has led to riots, sometimes violent protests and attacks on officers.

The assassination of two New York police officers in December tamped down the rhetoric only temporarily. Two men who met during the protests in Ferguson, Mo., pleaded guilty this week to planning to bomb a police station.

Arrests in many communities have become fraught, with angry crowds surrounding officers when they respond to calls for assistance.

A good-faith error may now lead to a criminal indictment, police worry. Cell phone videos may capture only their own use of force and not a suspect’s resistance to an arrest.

In November, Chief Sam Dotson of the St. Louis Police referred to the “Ferguson effect”: officers backing away from discretionary enforcement under charges of racism, thereby emboldening criminals. At that point, arrests in St. Louis city and county had dropped a third since the August shooting of Michael Brown in nearby Ferguson. Homicides in the city had surged 47 percent and robberies in the county were up 82 percent. In Baltimore, arrests dropped 56 percent this May since the protests and riots over the death of Freddie Gray, while shootings so far this year are up more than 60 percent compared to the same period last year.

In New York, arrests are down 17.4 percent through May 31 compared to the same period last year. Criminal summons, which encompass many discretionary, low-level offenses, are down 26 percent.

Pedestrian stops in New York are down 95 percent from the 2011 high. Guns are showing up daily in routine street encounters, N.Y.P.D. officials report.

Any police killing of an unarmed, innocent civilian is a horrifying tragedy that training must work incessantly to prevent. And officers have an obligation to treat the public with courtesy and respect. But if police officers disengage, the casualties will be millions of law-abiding residents of crime-ridden neighborhoods who were liberated from fear by the last two decades of proactive enforcement.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...rime-is-a-reason-to-fear-anti-police-rhetoric

The current trend in 2015 of far more blacks being shot, murdered and robbed is very worrying.

 

[ksen]

Is it?

 

[dismal]

Is it?

You forgot your #blacklivesmatter

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So the Police are the true victims?

 

[dismal]

So the Police are the true victims?

Maybe it's the people getting murdered.

 

[KeepTalking]

Violence is rising in many cities across the country. May was by some measures the most crime-ridden month in Baltimore’s history since records started being kept, according to the Baltimore Sun.

Officers say they are reluctant to be proactive because of the vitriol they face. The victims will be law-abiding residents of crime-ridden areas.

In Milwaukee, homicides were up 180 percent by May 17 compared to the same period in 2014.

In Houston, murders were up nearly 100 percent through March. In Chicago, shootings were up 25 percent and homicides up 18 percent through May 24. In New York, murder was up 20 percent and shooting incidents 9 percent through May 31.

Not all cities are experiencing significant crime increases. But enough are to demand attention.

One possible explanation is that officers have become reluctant to engage in proactive policing because of the vitriol they have faced over the last nine months, a hypothesis based on interviews with officers, the observations of commanders, and past experience.The claim, frequently repeated in the media, that police routinely kill young black men has led to riots, sometimes violent protests and attacks on officers.

The assassination of two New York police officers in December tamped down the rhetoric only temporarily. Two men who met during the protests in Ferguson, Mo., pleaded guilty this week to planning to bomb a police station.

Arrests in many communities have become fraught, with angry crowds surrounding officers when they respond to calls for assistance.

A good-faith error may now lead to a criminal indictment, police worry. Cell phone videos may capture only their own use of force and not a suspect’s resistance to an arrest.

In November, Chief Sam Dotson of the St. Louis Police referred to the “Ferguson effect”: officers backing away from discretionary enforcement under charges of racism, thereby emboldening criminals. At that point, arrests in St. Louis city and county had dropped a third since the August shooting of Michael Brown in nearby Ferguson. Homicides in the city had surged 47 percent and robberies in the county were up 82 percent. In Baltimore, arrests dropped 56 percent this May since the protests and riots over the death of Freddie Gray, while shootings so far this year are up more than 60 percent compared to the same period last year.

In New York, arrests are down 17.4 percent through May 31 compared to the same period last year. Criminal summons, which encompass many discretionary, low-level offenses, are down 26 percent.

Pedestrian stops in New York are down 95 percent from the 2011 high. Guns are showing up daily in routine street encounters, N.Y.P.D. officials report.

Any police killing of an unarmed, innocent civilian is a horrifying tragedy that training must work incessantly to prevent. And officers have an obligation to treat the public with courtesy and respect. But if police officers disengage, the casualties will be millions of law-abiding residents of crime-ridden neighborhoods who were liberated from fear by the last two decades of proactive enforcement.

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...rime-is-a-reason-to-fear-anti-police-rhetoric

The current trend in 2015 of far more blacks being shot, murdered and robbed is very worrying.

I don't know what Chief Dotson is smoking, but I want some. The cops in STL are still doing Hot Spot Policing, their term for proactive policing. They seem to announce a new area where they are using the tactic every other week. Maybe they aren't doing it in Feguson, but the statistics are from all of St. Louis City and the County.

 

[Derec]

Is it?

You forgot your #blacklivesmatter

Only when shot by white police officers or off-white neighborhood watchmen.

 

[Axulus]

So the Police are the true victims?

I would think the 180% additional murder victims in Milwaukee and 60% additional shooting victims in Baltimore, for example, are the "true" victims, but some people's priorities differ.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

So the Police are the true victims?

I would think the 180% additional murder victims in Milwaukee, for example, are the "true" victims, but some people's priorities differ.

One would think so, but this seems to be more about how the Police are scared to do their job.

 

[Axulus]

Is it?

You tell me. No one knows the exact cause at this point, but it seems to be the most plausible explanation.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Is it?

You tell me. No one knows the exact cause at this point, but it seems to be the most plausible explanation.

Maybe relaxing some building code standards would help this problem.

 

[Axulus]

I would think the 180% additional murder victims in Milwaukee, for example, are the "true" victims, but some people's priorities differ.

One would think so, but this seems to be more about how the Police are scared to do their job.

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

 

[ksen]

Is it?

You tell me. No one knows the exact cause at this point, but it seems to be the most plausible explanation.

No, I meant is it really worrying to some people that black people are killing/raping each other?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

One would think so, but this seems to be more about how the Police are scared to do their job.

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

 

[Axulus]

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebat...rime-is-a-reason-to-fear-anti-police-rhetoric

The current trend in 2015 of far more blacks being shot, murdered and robbed is very worrying.

I don't know what Chief Dotson is smoking, but I want some. The cops in STL are still doing Hot Spot Policing, their term for proactive policing. They seem to announce a new area where they are using the tactic every other week. Maybe they aren't doing it in Feguson, but the statistics are from all of St. Louis City and the County.

And what do you think explains the 47 percent increase in murders and 82 percent increase in robberies? Angry rioting and general lawlessness by a significant segment the citizenry? As a response to Ferguson, or something else?

- - - Updated - - -

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

You already used the word "seems", so why would I need to pile in more qualifiers?

 

[KeepTalking]

I don't know what Chief Dotson is smoking, but I want some. The cops in STL are still doing Hot Spot Policing, their term for proactive policing. They seem to announce a new area where they are using the tactic every other week. Maybe they aren't doing it in Feguson, but the statistics are from all of St. Louis City and the County.

And what do you think explains the 47 percent increase in murders and 82 percent increase in robberies? Angry rioting and general lawlessness by a significant segment the citizenry? As a response to Ferguson, or something else?

- - - Updated - - -

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

You already used the word "seems", so why would I need to pile in more qualifiers?

I don't know what is causing it, but I know it is not because the police are pulling back from proactive policing, at least in St. Louis, and Chief Dotson should know it too. I am just a guy in the area who watches the news, and sees that they are still doing Hot Spot Policing all over STL. Anything I say will be a guess, but I will note that we had a particularly mild winter here in STL, and that the spring has been hotter than normal. What the weather is like does seem to have an impact on the number of violent crimes committed, and mild winters in particular seem to influence the statistics in the first half of the year.

 

[Axulus]

And what do you think explains the 47 percent increase in murders and 82 percent increase in robberies? Angry rioting and general lawlessness by a significant segment the citizenry? As a response to Ferguson, or something else?

- - - Updated - - -

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

You already used the word "seems", so why would I need to pile in more qualifiers?

I don't know what is causing it, but I know it is not because the police are pulling back from proactive policing, at least in St. Louis, and Chief Dotson should know it too. I am just a guy in the area who watches the news, and sees that they are still doing Hot Spot Policing all over STL. Anything I say will be a guess, but I will note that we had a particularly mild winter here in STL, and that the spring has been hotter than normal. What the weather is like does seem to have an impact on the number of violent crimes committed, and mild winters in particular seem to influence the statistics in the first half of the year.

The jury is still out, but the trends are alarming, the crime spike seems quite severe when we are talking about violent crimes at levels above 50% compared to the prior year. I hope we see a reversal soon back to norms.

 

[KeepTalking]

And what do you think explains the 47 percent increase in murders and 82 percent increase in robberies? Angry rioting and general lawlessness by a significant segment the citizenry? As a response to Ferguson, or something else?

- - - Updated - - -

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

You already used the word "seems", so why would I need to pile in more qualifiers?

I don't know what is causing it, but I know it is not because the police are pulling back from proactive policing, at least in St. Louis, and Chief Dotson should know it too. I am just a guy in the area who watches the news, and sees that they are still doing Hot Spot Policing all over STL. Anything I say will be a guess, but I will note that we had a particularly mild winter here in STL, and that the spring has been hotter than normal. What the weather is like does seem to have an impact on the number of violent crimes committed, and mild winters in particular seem to influence the statistics in the first half of the year.

The jury is still out, but the trends are alarming, the crime spike seems quite severe when we are talking about violent crimes at levels above 50% compared to the prior year. I hope we see a reversal soon back to norms.

It is probably a confluence of several factors, and all of the high profile cases of police brutality and police killing unarmed civilians certainly aren't helping, especially when most of these cases are letting the cop perpetrators off with no charges, or rigged grand juries. But there is no way Chief Dotson is going to point that out, now is there? No, better for him to say that it is because the cops are now holding back, so maybe he can get even more money shoved his way for his pet Hot Spot Policing program.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And what do you think explains the 47 percent increase in murders and 82 percent increase in robberies? Angry rioting and general lawlessness by a significant segment the citizenry? As a response to Ferguson, or something else?

- - - Updated - - -

Overboard cautious to prevent making a mistake and upsetting anyone would be a more apt description, with perhaps a drop in morale (meaning their motivation to do their job has declined).

I think your forgot to include an "alleged" somewhere in that sentence.

You already used the word "seems", so why would I need to pile in more qualifiers?

I don't know what is causing it, but I know it is not because the police are pulling back from proactive policing, at least in St. Louis, and Chief Dotson should know it too. I am just a guy in the area who watches the news, and sees that they are still doing Hot Spot Policing all over STL. Anything I say will be a guess, but I will note that we had a particularly mild winter here in STL, and that the spring has been hotter than normal. What the weather is like does seem to have an impact on the number of violent crimes committed, and mild winters in particular seem to influence the statistics in the first half of the year.

The jury is still out...

The case hasn't even been heard yet, pulling back from proactive policing is alleged, and the statistics are of a short duration so trends aren't established yet.