Turkish troops enter Iraq?

[Will Wiley]

According to Stratfor

December 4, 2015 | 17:52 GMT
Turkish troops reportedly entered Iraqi territory on Dec. 3, allegedly arriving at the Al Shikhan militia camp to help forces retake Mosul from the Islamic State, according to sources in the National Crowd for Liberating Ninevah militia and an anonymous peshmerga official, Aena News and Shafaq News reported Dec. 4. Ninevah Gov. Nawfal Humadi and Ninevah Operations Command leader Maj. Gen. Najim al-Jubouri denied the report, as did the Kurdistan Democratic Party. The anonymous peshmerga source said that the Turkish force is composed of three regiments armed with heavy weapons and that it will assist the fighters of the National Crowd for Liberating Ninevah, an umbrella group of militias, to combat the Islamic State. The Al Shikhan base camp, also known as Nargizliya Camp, is located on the border of Dahuk and Ninevah provinces and has to date trained 3,500 fighters. The report also suggested that an assault on Mosul would occur soon. Given the surprisingly sparse media reports about the supposed deployment of such a large force, Stratfor believes that this information should be taken with a note of caution. The presence of Turkish forces could be a mischaracterization of an expansion of Ankara's footprint in training the National Crowd for Liberating Ninevah rather than an actual deployment of large Turkish units for a mission to retake Mosul. If some element of this report is true, however, this would be a very notable development and a sizable increase in Turkey's commitment to the conflict in Iraq. The addition of three Turkish combat regiments could upend the balance in what has been a largely stagnant front. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said Dec. 3 that he would reject any foreign ground troops in the fight against the Islamic State, calling any such incursion a violation of sovereignty that would be dealt with accordingly. Iraqi security forces have been working to isolate Islamic State-held Mosul by cutting lines of communication and directing airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition

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https://www.stratfor.com/sample/sit...rge-turkish-troops-arriving-help-retake-mosul

 

[barbos]

I interpret this as Erdogan losing it. He realized that Su24 shoot-down was clearly a bad idea and wants to replace it with something else in the news.

 

[Will Wiley]

I interpret this as Erdogan losing it. He realized that Su24 shoot-down was clearly a bad idea and wants to replace it with something else in the news.

Turkey has done this before

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Turkish_incursion_into_northern_Iraq

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Steel

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Hammer_(1997)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northern_Iraq

 

[barbos]

I have no doubt they have done it before. Question is why now? And general feeling is that Erdogan has no plan of action now.
I mean Su24 shotdown did not go as planned. His plan was to shoot it down, pilots are alive, Russia is reasonably pissed off, NATO is strongly behind Turkey, anti-ISIS coalition between US/NATO is broken and Erdogan is on a white horse giving orders in the Middle East. Did not work that way, and he has no plan B.

 

[J842P]

I have no doubt they have done it before. Question is why now? And general feeling is that Erdogan has no plan of action now.
I mean Su24 shotdown did not go as planned. His plan was to shoot it down, pilots are alive, Russia is reasonably pissed off, NATO is strongly behind Turkey, anti-ISIS coalition between US/NATO is broken and Erdogan is on a white horse giving orders in the Middle East. Did not work that way, and he has no plan B.

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

- - - Updated - - -

I have no doubt they have done it before. Question is why now? And general feeling is that Erdogan has no plan of action now.
I mean Su24 shotdown did not go as planned. His plan was to shoot it down, pilots are alive, Russia is reasonably pissed off, NATO is strongly behind Turkey, anti-ISIS coalition between US/NATO is broken and Erdogan is on a white horse giving orders in the Middle East. Did not work that way, and he has no plan B.

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

 

[barbos]

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

And the commander of these turkmen is turkish, son of some mayor there.
Erdogan can't back down (his supporters would not like it) and can't escalate it, because everybody else (turkish business, NATO, US) would not understand. He really need some distraction.

 

[iolo]

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

And the commander of these turkmen is turkish, son of some mayor there.
Erdogan can't back down (his supporters would not like it) and can't escalate it, because everybody else (turkish business, NATO, US) would not understand. He really need some distraction.

He can always find some Kurds to murder or lynch safely, surely - or perhaps invite a few Armenians back?

 

[Horatio Parker]

Some say that if the Turks and Kurds allied, they would be the region's most powerful players. Pretty counter intuitive, especially as the Turks recently have bombed the PKK, and closed their border against the YPG. OTOH, maybe the Kurds would agree to give up any claim against Turkey and be satisfied with pieces of Iraq and Syria.

Let's see what happens.

 

[fromderinside]

So some enterprising 'reporter' makes up a story enlarging the 130 person Turk Training unit in Northern Iraq for the Sunni resistance forces to three regiments invading and we have an 'international 'incident? Turkish training operations in Iraq have been ongoing since September at least.

Seems to me the soviet disinformation network is working this overtime.

Check CNN and WSJ stories on the topic as well as somewhat older NYT articles. sputniknews seems a bit fishy. How about a more reliable report by al jazeera http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...wal-turkish-troops-mosul-151205061510572.html which covers Iraq central government demands and a bit of history and process for the training going on in the region by Turkey for about 2 years now. Seems the governor of Mosul, in exile, requested the help.

Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said on Saturday that no permission had been given for the stationing of "around one armed battalion" of Turkish soldiers in the northern Nineveh area near Mosul, a city under the control of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group.Turkey's Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, though, said the troops were there as part of an ongoing training mission at the request of Mosul's governor and in coordination with Iraq's defense ministry.

"No one should arrive at wrong conclusions from our support. Turkey is not after any country's soil," Davutoglu said.

and the background

A senior Kurdish military officer based on the Bashiqa front-line told Reuters that additional Turkish trainers had arrived at a camp in the area overnight on Thursday escorted by a Turkish protection force."Our soldiers are already in Iraq. A battalion of soldiers has gone there. Training was already being given in that region for the last two to three years. This is a part of that training," a Turkish official told Reuters.

In Washington, two US defense officials said on Friday that the United States was aware of Turkey's deployment, but the move was not part of the US-led coalition's activities.

Turkey has close relations with the Kurdish regional government

Seems Turkey doesn't have it in for Kurds, just PPK.

Seems a lot less Erdogon and a lot more business as usual.

 

[Will Wiley]

So some enterprising 'reporter' makes up a story enlarging the 130 person Turk Training unit in Northern Iraq for the Sunni resistance forces to three regiments invading and we have an 'international 'incident? Turkish training operations in Iraq have been ongoing since September at least.

Seems to me the soviet disinformation network is working this overtime.

In all likelihood Turkish troops are involved in stealing Iraqi oil or buying oil ISIS is stealing

 

[Jayjay]

It sounds a bit fishy to me. If Turkish forces were there by inviation of Mosul's governor and in coordination with Iraq's defence ministry, then how come it seems that the central government in Baghdad has no knowledge of it? Or is the Iraqi government just so splintered that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing?

 

[Will Wiley]

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

- - - Updated - - -

I have no doubt they have done it before. Question is why now? And general feeling is that Erdogan has no plan of action now.
I mean Su24 shotdown did not go as planned. His plan was to shoot it down, pilots are alive, Russia is reasonably pissed off, NATO is strongly behind Turkey, anti-ISIS coalition between US/NATO is broken and Erdogan is on a white horse giving orders in the Middle East. Did not work that way, and he has no plan B.

Yeah his Turkmen really fucked him by killing those pilots.

I think there is some doubt as to how many of the people around the border are Turkmen
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/1...some-of-their-chechen-and-saudi-leaders-.html

 

[Will Wiley]

It sounds a bit fishy to me. If Turkish forces were there by inviation of Mosul's governor and in coordination with Iraq's defence ministry, then how come it seems that the central government in Baghdad has no knowledge of it? Or is the Iraqi government just so splintered that the left hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing?

The Turkish troops are on the route where oil is being smuggled from Iraq to Turkey. Turkey is working with ISIS to steal and smuggle Iraq's oil.

http://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/fe...ellers-how-islamic-state-oil-flows-to-israel/

 

[Will Wiley]

Is Erdogan's Mosul Escapade Blackmail For Another Qatar-Turkey Pipeline?

Update: Iraqi sources confirm to Elijah J. Magnier that Turkey is indeed blackmailing Baghdad to get a Qatar-Turkey pipeline. The blackmail also has a water resource component. I wrote on that here back in August. I recommend to read the above linked Magnier piece together with my speculations below.
---

The Turkish move to annex Mosul is further developing into a serious conflict. Iraq has demanded that Turkey removes its soldiers and heavy weapons from the "training base" near Mosul within 48 hours. It asserts that these were put there without asking or informing the sovereign Iraqi government.

Turkey first denied that any new troops arrived in Iraq. It then said that the troops were only a replacement of the existing training force. Then it claimed that the new troops were there to protect the training force:

 

[Angra Mainyu]

It seems (according to Al Jazeera) Erdogan says the Iraqi Prime Minister requested it.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...ps-iraq-pm-abadi-request-151209215017789.html

 

[Will Wiley]

It seems (according to Al Jazeera) Erdogan says the Iraqi Prime Minister requested it.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...ps-iraq-pm-abadi-request-151209215017789.html

If you believe Erdogan that is.
Who knows? But as it is clear that Turkey and ISIS are stealing oil that belongs to the Iraqi people, the show is hopefully over

 

[Angra Mainyu]

It seems (according to Al Jazeera) Erdogan says the Iraqi Prime Minister requested it.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...ps-iraq-pm-abadi-request-151209215017789.html

If you believe Erdogan that is.

I said that Erdogan said that, according to Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera is probably telling the truth on this, but I have no idea whether Erdogan is.