How much extra evidence is necessary? How do we know when a miracle claim becomes credible?
I just read your reply above to my earlier post, and you have misstated what my actual position is several times. You often abbreviate what my viewpoint is by attributing absolutist words to me that actually do not represent my views. I try to be careful and emphasize that we are dealing in terms of probabilities, likelihoods, chances, etc. You have instead used absolutist terms and phrases like "could ever" or "possible" or "impossible" to describe my views, so it is hard to take you as an accurate describer of what my position really is. Just as some examples here---
Through our own current observations of the world around us, we humans tend to learn about what is and is not possible, or at least what is likely or unlikely to be the case.
Our own direct current observations of the world leave out 99.99999% of all the stuff happening. There could easily be some unique or unusual events happening, or which did happen, which are rare enough that the majority of us never experience such things. It's not reasonable to think that if we never personally experienced such a thing ourselves that then no such thing could ever happen. Our non-experience of it might reduce the probability that it ever happens, or happened, but if there are some reports saying it happened, it increases the possibility that it did happen, even though we did not experience such a thing ourselves. So it can't be ruled out as a possibility.
For instance, if you come across a note that describes an elephant flying around in the air, your initial assumption should be that the note is NOT describing accurately what actually happened.
Sure, but what if you come across 1 or 2 further reports saying this, beyond that one note. Doesn't that increase the possibility that it happened? Maybe it's still less than 50% probable, but the probability increases incrementally with each additional report.
Yes, if those additional reports are demonstrated to be generally unbiased, then . . .
But even a "biased" source saying something is additional evidence. None of the ancient historians was really unbiased. Also, even the sources which seem to be less biased might not really be so. For 1000 or 2000 years ago it's very difficult to say for sure that this or that writer was unbiased. But whether biased or not, the additional source is additional evidence.
If we can detect the bias very definitely, then you can say this might be a factor, carrying some weight, but it does not cancel out this additional report as evidence. It's not easy to measure what the higher or lower probability is, when we try to factor in every perceived bias or other possible distortion.
. . . to be generally unbiased, then that increases the POSSIBILITY that it happened. It does not, to any significant degree, make it likely that it really happened though.
In some cases it does. For a fantastic miracle claim, we probably need more than only one extra source. But what if we have 2 extra sources? or 3? At some point the probability reaches 50%.
For the resurrection of Jesus we have 5 separate sources saying this happened. It's arbitrary to claim that the probability is still less than 50%. It might be much higher. There is no scientific objective way we can calculate exactly what the probability is, or claim it to within a spread of 10 or 20 percentage points. We don't know.
You can't arbitrarily dictate that we must have 50 extra independent sources, or 20, or whatever number.
The PROBABILITY would still be in the likelihood that it is a fictional story or somesuch.
With 5 extra sources you can't be sure of this. It might be up in the 70% or higher range.
Also, even if it's 49% or less, belief can be based on probability less than 50% in some cases. Some decisions are made based on a possibility of something happening even if the probability is less than 50%. Like fastening a seatbelt as a precaution in case of an accident. So a belief might still be reasonable in some cases where the actual probability (if it could be calculated) would be under 50%.
Maybe it was not intended to be taken literally in the first place but instead as a fictional story, or maybe it was intended literally and the person believes it really happened. Either way, the rest of us who did not witness such a thing should still presume that such a thing did not really happen.
Probably, but if there are extra sources saying it happened, then the likelihood of it being true increases. Some odd events do happen even though most of us never experience such a thing.
Notice the change in terms you are giving there, however. You say it is "probably" the case that such a miracle event did not happen. Even if its probability increases with further evidence, it will still be the case that it more likely did not.
No, it depends on HOW MUCH further evidence there is. An extra 2 or 3 or 4 sources might turn it into a likely-did-happen from a likely-did-not. You're right that in some cases only one extra source isn't enough. Maybe most cases. Maybe. But 3, 4, 5 extra sources?
So even if its likelihood increased from a 3% chance to an 8% chance, it is still likely to not have happened as such.
But maybe its likelihood increased from 5% to 51% because of the extra evidence.
There is still a much stronger probability that it did not happen.
Not necessarily.
If the number of sources increases from 1 to 5, this very well could increase the probability to over 50%.
Please again note that I am not saying it is IMPOSSIBLE to have happened. We are dealing in what is PROBABLE AND IMPROBABLE here, so that needs to be figured into your worldview so you do not confuse those terms and concepts again here.
There's no reason why the 5 sources for the resurrection of Jesus does not increase the probability of that event (5 sources vs. 1 source) from 5% to 60% or 70%. We cannot calculate with certainty what the increased probability is.
We have plenty of experience ourselves with elephants, and in all that experience they have never been observed to be flying around. If somebody says otherwise, the burden of proof is on them.
Only one person claiming it is not enough. Or two. But if others also say this happened, and witnesses were present, then at some point it we have to start taking it seriously. It starts to be in the doubtful rather than absolutely-not category.
You're using the elephants example to make your point, because of the humor and also the extreme nature of it, so we reject it as ridiculous. But that's only because there are NO examples of any such observations. But that doesn't prove your point that no type of phenomenon can ever happen unless it is observed regularly by most people.
Please stop so blatantly and flagrantly misstating what my actual position is. It is not my argument that such phenomenon that we have given as examples of miracles CANNOT EVER HAPPEN. Instead, we need to work within the confines of just what is most likely to be the case.
For only one source, it's only 1 or 2% probable. But for 3 sources it becomes 20 or 30% probable. For 5 sources it becomes 50 or 60% probable. Maybe. It depends. In some cases the 5 sources pushes up the probability to even 90%.
We work in probabilities, odds, chances, likelihoods, evidence, etc. We just do not usually have the luxury of being able to have proof, absolute certitude, etc. Please stop misstating and confusing what my real position is here.
4 or 5 sources for the same reported miracle event (the resurrection of Jesus), in documents that have come down from that time is certainly the ONLY case of any such event reported in multiple documents. So this one example of a miracle claim has more evidence (far more evidence) than any other such reported event, from centuries ago.
We agree that we cannot simply rule out a miracle event regardless of any evidence. If there's extra evidence, then at some point the reported event becomes credible. Or rather, it's not unreasonable to believe it, even if there is still doubt.
This is a good place to clear up a related point:
Modern Publishing vs. publishing 2000 years ago
How many sources do we need for the year 2000 AD vs. 100 AD?
How much EXTRA EVIDENCE is necessary to believe a miracle claim?
The time difference issue (today vs. 2000 years ago) came up in regard to the
Joseph Smith reputed miracles. It is argued that we have more sources for the JS miracles than for the Jesus miracles in the gospels.
And one could also cite miracle claims on
YouTube and other modern media sources. No doubt there are some miracle claims in modern times for which there are more than only 5 "sources" claiming some miracle happened.
A
MATHEMATICAL FORMULA can be devised to deal with this. We have to take account of the fact that in modern times there are a million times as many potential sources than for 2000 (or 1000) years ago.
We can't plug accurate realistic empirical numbers into such a formula. So the principle can be stated generally, to make the point. And some conjecture has to try to fill in the possible details. Nothing of this can be PROVED, but we can make a reasonable case for comparing miracle claims of today to claims from 1000 or 2000 years ago. We can draw conclusions from it, though it's still only conjecture, not proof. Reasonable conjecture, which is legitimate for making the point.
PS: Total publishing volume / total outlets/sources
For this formula, we need a number, or symbol, to represent the TOTAL PUBLISHING VOLUME in existence during the time period.
This number represents the total number of published sources, outlets, media which report the events, or which report/publish any information, or ideas, etc.
So let's just call this quantity
PS for published sources.
We use this term, or symbol, or quantity, along with NR below, to express the degree of evidence which exists for any miracle claim(s).
NR: A higher degree of evidence is directly related to the greater amount of evidence, or pieces of evidence, for the claim.
So we can call this
NR, meaning the actual
number of reports such as written sources, etc. making the miracle claim in question.
For the Jesus resurrection, this number is 5, or for the healing miracles it is 4.
For a modern miracle claim, appearing on 10 or 20 different YouTube channels, this NR would then be 10 (or 20) etc.
So we have a NR of 20 for this modern miracle claim, vs the Jesus resurrection NR of only 5.
So then do we have more "evidence" for the modern YouTube miracle than for the Jesus resurrection, because 20 is greater than 5?
Obviously not.
What we have to do is divide the NR by the PS number to attain the true weight of evidence for either miracle claim. Thus,
NR/PS represents the true value of the total evidence for any miracle claim.
For miracle claims during the same period, this formula is not necessary. And maybe all miracle claims from before 1000 AD could be expressed by just the NR number. Though to be really precise, we'd have to factor in some conditions which took place in the middle ages which make that period more susceptible to miracle claims than the 1st century AD.
But for now let's just use the formula to point out the difference between modern miracle claims, in the year 2017, vs. claims from about 50 AD.
And also, let's compare to miracle claims of the 19th century, or 1800-1900, vs. 50 AD.
The PS number, for theoretical purposes, can be expressed with a simple number, like 10 or 50 or 100 or 1000 etc. And we can use approximations, or abstract quantities, expressed symbolically, to make the point, and one is free to adjust the numbers up or down to try to make it more realistic in their opinion.
Whereas the NR number is more literal, and real, such as the 5 sources for the Jesus resurrection, or the 20 YouTube videos making the same claim.
NR/PS then gives us the expression for the degree of evidence in each case of a miracle claim.
Let's say that PS is the simple number 1 for the 1st century AD. I.e.,
PS = 1 (1st century AD)
Then for 1500 AD, the PS might be 100.
PS = 100, meaning that there are 100 times more total publishing sources in the year 1500 AD than in 50 or 100 AD.
With increasing publishing resources, by 1800 the PS number would be more like 500.
PS = 500 Meaning there are 500 times as many publishing outlets/sources in 1800 than there were in 50 AD. (The real number is probably much higher.)
Then for 2017, it must easily be more than 1000. Probably more like 10,000 or 100,000. We could say
PS = 5000. Obviously it gets very difficult to guestimate the total increase in publishing outlets/sources today with the vastly expanding technology.
Now, for the Joseph Smith miracle claims there might be 20 sources. These would have to be 19th century sources only. So, given these hypothetical values, the measure of the evidence is:
Evidence for Joseph Smith miracle claims = NR/PS =
20/500.
Evidence for the Jesus miracle claims = NR/PS =
5/1.
Evidence for modern YouTube miracle claim on 20 sites = NR/PS =
20/5000 (or 20/10,000) etc.
These adjustments for comparing miracle claims from different time periods thus make it possible to compare the degree of evidence for modern miracle claims vs. miracle claims from the 1st century. And this makes it clear that we have more evidence for the Jesus miracle stories than for any other cases that are known, or for which there is any record.
Thus we can establish a criterion for measuring the weight of the evidence for modern claims vs. claims from many centuries past, and compensate for the extreme increase in publishing in modern times which distorts the comparison. The number of sources claiming an event happened is a measure of the evidence, or constitutes most of the evidence for claims of what happened. But as the total number of publishing outlets/sources increases, an increase of claims or reports is inevitable.
Another way to express this would be to compare the total number of claims made in one time period vs. another time period. And then replace the PS value above with this total number of claims value.
So,
TC = the total number of claims made, or known to have been made, during the time period.
Combine this with the NR number, to get the formula:
Total evidence =
NR/TC for any miracle claim. I.e., divide the number of sources for the claim, NR, by all the claims being made, or published, or reported.
In the 1st century, we could estimate the total number of claims as 100 (though obviously there is no officially-established number)
So TC = 100, and NR (Jesus resurrection) = 5
So the total evidence is NR/TC = 5/100.
Meanwhile in the 19th century, there would easily be thousands of such claims. Maybe 5000 such claims.
With the NR for Joseph Smith being 20, the calculation would be
TC = 5000, and NR (JS miracle claims) = 20
so the total evidence is NR/TC = 20/5000.
Now of course you can laugh at this (here, I'll help you laugh at it:
), ho ho ho, because of the arbitrary choice of numbers, but does anyone really believe the total number of publishing sources in 1800 was not vastly greater than that of 50 AD?
or that the total number of miracle stories circulated in 1800 was not vastly greater than that of 50 AD?
Plug in your own numbers.
So the principle is legitimate, even though there's much speculation over what particular numbers to insert.
The point: there is nothing arbitrary about requiring a vastly greater number of "sources" or reports for miracle claims today vs. miracle claims 2000 years ago.