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Cutting the deficit, post 2017 tax reform

Ford is absolutely correct. The deficit is expected to explode due to SSN and Medicare growth. This coupled with the decrease in tax revenue from republican cuts will create the psychological need to cut programs in the future.

Emphasis on "psychological". Which is why it's critical for the left get off the neoliberal train.

What terrible thing will happen from these deficits?

Two questions(rhetorical, not aimed at HB):

Do you agree that govt tax provides money for the govt to spend?

Do you agree that govt issued bonds raise money for the govt to spend?

Almost everyone, no matter how progressive they are, will agree with the above. And they're wrong.

(40 minutes)
 
Abomination? Nah. Trump may have just secured his reelection.

AT&T, Comcast giving $1,000 bonuses to hundreds of thousands of workers after tax bill



Wells Fargo, Fifth Third Bancorp unveil minimum wage hikes after tax bill passage

Fifth Third Bancorp will pay more than 13,500 employees a bonus and raise the minimum wage of its workforce to $15 an hour after the passage of the Republican tax plan that will cut the bank's corporate tax rate.
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Cincinnati-based Fifth Third, the fifteenth largest U.S. bank by asset size, said the tax cut allowed it to re-evaluate its employee pay and pass along some of the windfall. Nearly 3,000 workers will see hourly wages rise to $15. The $1,000 one-time bonus is expected to be paid by the end of this year, the bank said, assuming President Donald Trump signs the bill into law by Christmas.

Senior managers and top executives are excluded from the special payments. "It is good for our communities, employees and Fifth Third Bank," said CEO Greg Carmichael in a statement.

Boeing CEO promises increased investment after GOP tax bill passes

Aerospace giant Boeing quickly praised passage of the GOP tax bill, promising $300 million in new charitable investments and workforce development.

Lol moving numbers around. The pay raises wont matter if the benefits and deductions those employees depended on are gone.
 
I have to laugh at the ATT show...yeah it couldn't have anything to do with trying to butter up FFvC, so his administration might get friendlier to the massive Time-Warner merger plans.

Lol moving numbers around. The pay raises wont matter if the benefits and deductions those employees depended on are gone.

Uhm...just what kind of scenario are you envisioning that would negatively impact such lower wage workers (not considering the tax plan rescinding many of the cuts in a decade for Joe-Sixpack)? With the big banks making out like bandits with the tax change, throwing out a little chump change to their base workers is good PR.

This article provides 8 example scenarios, with a good example with a married couple in Milwaukee. The pic from the article has the details.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-tax-bill-will-affect-eight-american-families

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I have to laugh at the ATT show...yeah it couldn't have anything to do with trying to butter up FFvC, so his administration might get friendlier to the massive Time-Warner merger plans.

Lol moving numbers around. The pay raises wont matter if the benefits and deductions those employees depended on are gone.

Uhm...just what kind of scenario are you envisioning that would negatively impact such lower wage workers (not considering the tax plan rescinding many of the cuts in a decade for Joe-Sixpack)? With the big banks making out like bandits with the tax change, throwing out a little chump change to their base workers is good PR.

This article provides 8 example scenarios, with a good example with a married couple in Milwaukee. The pic from the article has the details.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-tax-bill-will-affect-eight-american-families

View attachment 13728

Well, sure but take that example and assume they're living in a $10,000,000 home and paying $35,000 per year mortgage interest and their taxes probably go up a little.
 
I have to laugh at the ATT show...yeah it couldn't have anything to do with trying to butter up FFvC, so his administration might get friendlier to the massive Time-Warner merger plans.

Lol moving numbers around. The pay raises wont matter if the benefits and deductions those employees depended on are gone.

Uhm...just what kind of scenario are you envisioning that would negatively impact such lower wage workers (not considering the tax plan rescinding many of the cuts in a decade for Joe-Sixpack)? With the big banks making out like bandits with the tax change, throwing out a little chump change to their base workers is good PR.

This article provides 8 example scenarios, with a good example with a married couple in Milwaukee. The pic from the article has the details.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-tax-bill-will-affect-eight-american-families

View attachment 13728

Oh I get this is probably a PR move, made to work in tandem with their servants in Washington so they can say "See its working!" even though if they end up cutting social benefits to offset the tax cuts most of the working poor will end up losing ground.
 
There are reasons why a balanced budget is a good thing, but none of those reasons are considered worthwhile in our current Keynesian paradigm.

As for cutting the deficit, there is not now and there has not been for decades any actual impetus to cut the deficit. Considering that if you look at the whole budget (not just the on-budget items) that the revenues come to about 2/3 of the expenditures, cutting the deficit would be a very difficult task. One option is significant tax hikes, across the board, nobody left out. Another option is significant cuts, including all the large sacred cows, including programs you think are some of the best things the government does. The third option is some mix of the two, but in this option there are still plenty of hard decisions to make and nothing is left off the table.

Raising taxes on only the rich isn't enough. Cutting waste isn't enough (unless, like me, you think over half of what the government does is waste).

There isn't anyone in Washington with the testicular fortitude to even say this, much less act on it.

What are the worthwhile reasons for balancing the budget? The ones that aren't being considered now.

In order to respond to this, I have to discuss this with two different groups that both disagree with me. One are Neo-Keynesians like Krugman who actually have no problems with ongoing deficits, unlike Keynes who believed that half the time the government should run a deficit and the other half the time it should run a surplus. The other are proponents of Modern Monetary theory or Modern Money Theory (the advocates can't even agree on the name) (Or Magic Money Tree as critics call it). Even Krugman doesn't agree with MMT.

Keynesians and Neo-Keynesians both believe in deficits as a way to stimulate the economy. I disagree that it is even possible, as the economy is a dynamic system with many parts. Focusing on Aggregate Demand is like pushing on a thread, it fails to address what the demand is, what it is for, who is making the demand, etc. Although Macro and Micro are distinct, they do interrelate. It is a free-market view that attempts to manipulate this complex system create imbalances that further distort the market leading to preventing a smaller decline by causing a later greater decline. The recession of 2001 was nipped in the bud by creating the crash of 2008 and Great Depression II, for example.

Although K and N-K both agree that a crowding out effect exists, they never see it in the borrowing market. When the government borrows, it does impact the borrowing market. The effect is hidden but not erased by the use of central banking fiat currency, in which the end result is decreased purchasing power of the dollar. To me that eventually creates two separate market distortions. The first is of course what the money is spent on to stimulate the economy, and the other is the ongoing inflation problem. I do not agree there is a target inflation rate.

Here's the crux. People might be fooled in the short run, but seldom in the long run. If the inflation rate exceeds the treasury bond rate, the result is that bonds become an unattractive source of investment. Not completely unattractive, it is still better than holding currency because at least you are losing value slower. That is one of the points ignored by K and N-K, that the value of the dollar is separate from the dollar itself. All currencies are accepted on the belief that they can be redeemed for goods and services at a future date, the alternative is the primitive system of barter.

So, not only do deficits imbalance the economy in two ways, borrowing itself has a limit, unless the Federal Reserve actually completely monetizes the debt at which point the problem of the value of the currency is compounded. That is slowly happening now, by the way.

Taxes are the income of the government, that is a basic fact that even K and N-K agree on but the MMTs don't.

The reason K and N-K say it can't be balanced now is so much is needed right now. Cut anything, and we get forecasts of doom and gloom. And people say Miseans are predictors of gloom. Look what happens if there is a proposal to cut anything from the budget. It is true that people have become addicted to government largess, and quitting cold turkey may not be possible right now, but even so that doesn't mean you should never try to quit.

Then there's MMT, who have completely reversed economic understanding, and actually think that taxes exist only to withdraw money from the economy. They have severed the last link between currency and value which Ks and N-Ks still have. It is their belief that deficits don't matter because the government creates the money by spending and then pulls some of it back by taxes. Goodness it is hard to know where to start with something so not-even-wrong. Every Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian error is compounded, such as looking at aggregates at the cost of looking at a more complex economic system, but even then the do it backwards. I can't even come up with good analogies for them yet. They are not Neo-Keynesian, but are definitely post-Keynesian. They don't believe in crowding out, since the government creates the money. They don't believe there will be a time when there are no more borrowers, and if they do acknowledge it they don't see it as a problem. They believe that if inflation becomes a problem taxes can be raised to compensate but don't think it has any relation to the deficit.

Market distortions, currency distortions, borrower fatigue.

The last president to run a surplus was Eisenhower. Think about the strength of the US economy under Eisenhower. No, we didn't have a massive collapse because he had a brief surplus.
 
You're mistaken wrt to MMT and crowding out.

The reason crowding out is a myth, is that the "borrowing" is matched dollar for dollar by govt spending. There are more investment vehicles for sale, but there is also more money available to invest, in the same amount as the borrowing, in the private sector.

Your reasoning on deficits is very fuzzy, if not incoherent. Why are deficits sometimes desirable and other times not?
 
Were we running trade surpluses under Eisenhower? I don't have time to look right now, but I believe so. If so, a surplus may be a good idea.

There is no rule or first principle of surplus good, deficit bad. It all depends.
 
Were we running trade surpluses under Eisenhower? I don't have time to look right now, but I believe so. If so, a surplus may be a good idea.

There is no rule or first principle of surplus good, deficit bad. It all depends.

No, a budget surplus. The United States Federal Government ran a budget surplus.

I don't believe deficits are sometimes desirable. Keynes did.
 
Reducing a deficit until it disappears requires some level of discipline. For example, Congress could commit to holding spending under "normal" (say when unemployment is below 7%) to a percent point less than the growth in tax revenues. When conditions are abnormal, temporary spending appropriations could kick in but would have to disappear when normality returned.

An approach like this would reduce the deficit over time. But it requires a level of commitment to fiscal discipline that neither party has demonstrated over the past 50 years or so.

This, of course, begs the questions of what is the right amount/size of a gov't deficit.
 
Were we running trade surpluses under Eisenhower? I don't have time to look right now, but I believe so. If so, a surplus may be a good idea.

There is no rule or first principle of surplus good, deficit bad. It all depends.

No, a budget surplus. The United States Federal Government ran a budget surplus.

I don't believe deficits are sometimes desirable. Keynes did.

I understand, the govt ran a surplus. My question was, was there also a trade surplus?
 
It wasn't easy to find the data, but it looks like the US ran a trade surplus throughout most of the 1950s.

In that case, our trading partners carried the deficit.

But we’re no longer a net exporter. If you recover all govt so


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Sorry, hit “send” accidentally...

If you tax back all federal spending, while we’re in debt to our trading partners, we’ll go broke.

Not gonna happen.


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It wasn't easy to find the data, but it looks like the US ran a trade surplus throughout most of the 1950s.

In that case, our trading partners carried the deficit.

But we’re no longer a net exporter. If you recover all govt so

Sorry, hit “send” accidentally...

If you tax back all federal spending, while we’re in debt to our trading partners, we’ll go broke.

Not gonna happen.

You'll need to elaborate. Which of these four situations works and which of these doesn't work.

Trade surplus, budget surplus
Trade surplus, budget deficit
Trade deficit, budget surplus
Trade deficit, budget deficit
 
Or changes numbers up or down on a computer screen.

The real analogy to a household would be one where the head of household credits points for chores and debits
them for rent. Household members get a point or whatever for washing the dishes or sweeping etc, and are then periodically debited to pay their rent. The rent is a tax and the tax is incentive to earn points. The points themselves are just abstractions or symbols.

Ford is absolutely correct. The deficit is expected to explode due to SSN and Medicare growth. This coupled with the decrease in tax revenue from republican cuts will create the psychological need to cut programs in the future.

If they care about the deficit they shouldn't have passed this giveaway.
 
Financially we've already hit the iceberg, but only those on the lower decks notice right now. The only question before our politicians is if we should back up and hit it again, or lock all the poor in their cabins to make more room on the lifeboats. Also the arrangement of the deck chairs.
 
Sorry, hit “send” accidentally...

If you tax back all federal spending, while we’re in debt to our trading partners, we’ll go broke.

Not gonna happen.

You'll need to elaborate. Which of these four situations works and which of these doesn't work.

Trade surplus, budget surplus
Trade surplus, budget deficit
Trade deficit, budget surplus
Trade deficit, budget deficit

It's incomplete. The private sector is split into domestic and foreign. Right now, govt and foreign is in deficit, and domestic is in surplus. If the govt stays in surplus and foreign in deficit, the private sector will run a deficit. IOW private savings will be drawn down or people will have to borrow to pay their bills.

No. 1 draws money out of private domestic into govt. This is Germany or Norway's situation, net exporters.
No. 2 has potential to be inflationary, if both govt and foreign are adding financial assets to the private sector. I don't know of any examples.
No. 3 is austerity, likely to cause a recession. There were large trade deficits with the Clinton surpluses. Caused a recession.
No. 4 is what we have now, along with the UK, Japan and others.

They all "work", but 2 and 3 look to be the least desirable on the face of it.

The main point is that all money comes from the govt. If you demand govt surpluses when running a trade deficit, it'll starve the domestic private sector. Recipe for disaster.
 
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