Are US cities about to enter a long period of decline?

[SimpleDon]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

The modern corporate campaigns against science and facts began with the denial of the harmful effects of lead in paint in young children. The techniques learned in this fight, boldface lying, bribing politicians with campaign contributions, paying researchers to produce favorable studies arguing against the consensus, claiming that it is not settled science and that more research needs to be done, claiming that the researchers supporting the consensus were doing so seeking personal gains, crying excessive regulation and government interference in the free market, etc., would be used in the subsequent campaigns against removing lead from gasoline, against tobacco use causing cancer, against building codes, against workplace safety standards, against vehicle fuel efficiency and safety standards, and recently, against the overwhelming consensus supporting man made climate change. All of these mainly appealing to conservatives and their beliefs in preserving the status quo, their mistrust of government, their inability to run the government, their susceptibility to propaganda, and their heighten sense of seeing conspiracies everywhere.

The Freakonomics hypothesis of a correlation between legalized abortion and declining crime rates suffered from some problems. Not the least of which was that in a book championing the application of economics statistical methods to other, smaller problems than the macroeconomy, they presented no compelling statistical evidence of the offered correlation. They didn't even attempt to establish if there were more abortions done after abortions were legalized, which would have required them to estimate how many illegal abortions were done before, how many so-called Catholic abortions were done - doctors doing D&Cs to "restore menstruation," and how many women traveled aboard to have an abortion.

 

[J842P]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

Can you elaborate on what you are trying to say here?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

The Lead Paint hypothesis explains the same thing as the Freakonomics explanation of greater access to abortion.

Can you elaborate on what you are trying to say here?

I meant "leaded gas" not "lead paint" but I will elaborate.

Freakonomics had a different potential explanation for the drop in crime. Their suggestion, which I find intriguing but am not sold on, is that greater access to abortion led to fewer unwanted children. Fewer unwanted children meant that fewer children with a greater propensity to become criminals. As a result it is possible that the lack of criminals is due to them not being born.

That is perhaps supported by Jimmy pointing out that crime decreased in the cities but not rural areas, because when it comes to access to birth control the cities are definitely areas with greater access.

 

[Derec]

No, it is not rational, but it is human to make such mistakes.

No mistake. Those idiots are racist, even if you refuse to acknowledge that black people can be racist.

Maybe now you have an inkling why some blacks feel the same way when they are stopped by the police.

There is a huge difference between an armed racist mob not letting white people through and police officers enforcing the law.

 

[Derec]

So you believe that blacks don't have any legitimate grievance against the police?

Nothing that justifies blocking roads like University Ave. with armed force, killing 8 year olds or vandalizing Georgia Department of Public Safety headquarters. And that's just Atlanta!

Occupying 6 city blocks and a part in Seattle (CHAZ/CHOP) and occupying I5 for weeks (why is police letting them do it?) resulting in one protester getting driven over by a Jag is not appropriate either.

All of these actions are just making life in cities more dangerous for regular people.

That blacks should expect and even welcome to be shot and killed much more often than whites because they are genetically predisposed to crime and poverty?

Who said genetic? Whatever the cause (I think it's violence-glorifying culture, in present era mostly dominated by hip hop, is the major cause) the fact remains that blacks commit more crimes. As such, it is to be expected that they get into fatal confrontations with police in proportion to the crime rates.
Should there be a quota on police shootings? Vast majority of police shootings are completely justified. If some perp points a gun at police, is police automatically at fault if the perp was black? Does that justify protesting against police or even rioting/looting?

That only white males have legitimate grievances against the current state of affairs because medical schools and private universities discriminate against them in admissions?

That is an actual example of systemic racism though. Blacks and hispanics are given preferential treatment because of their race and ethnicity as a matter of policy. Blacks are not shot by police more often as a matter of policy. So apples and oranges. Also vastly more people participate in college education than are killed by police, so many more people are affected.

 

[Derec]

While I believe your logic is sound, the reality is that no one is really moving out or going to move out. Because if they were, the property values would be declining and they aren't. You simply can not argue with supply and demand economics.

Surely, it's a gradual process that will take years. Note that my threat title is in the present tense. I am not expecting something I predict will happen in the near future (unless there is a swift backlash to this "great awokening") to already be reflected in property values.
Note that this has already happeened with the decline of cities in the 70s and 80s in the wake of riots of the 60s and racist violence by groups such as Black Liberation Army going into 70s and 80s.
Also, it is a major decision to sell a house and move. So I suspect first indicator will be decisions by people not to move into cities rather than people actually moving out. Also, renters are more mobile than home owners so expect to see movement in rents first.

So the only explanation I can give for this is that people in general are stupid sheep who love to live in violence and shit. It is the same typical stupid moron sheep who were probably responsible for buying up the toilet paper during the beginning of the pandemic. Even though the virus had nothing to do with pooping! Those are the same moronic sheep who thrive in the cities and pay 3-4 times more for the pleasure to live in all their filth and violence. They obviously like to walk through shit and not have any police.

In recent decades many people who do not fit that description were moving into the cities, gentrifying neighborhoods and driving up property values and the tax base. That will probably be over unless mayors like DeBlasio, Mayor Jenny or our own KLB get their heads out of their asses and do something about the extremists. Right now the extremists are given more or less a free reign.

 

[laughing dog]

No, it is not rational, but it is human to make such mistakes.

No mistake.

Of course it is a mistake. You had no evidence that would shoot anyone at the time of your post. Your fear appeared driven either by bigotry or irrationality.

Those idiots are racist, even if you refuse to acknowledge that black people can be racist.

You confuse your irrational conclusions with reality. Those armed blacks may be bigots and/or racists. There is a difference between a bigot and a racist. In my view, a racist is someone who thinks a race is inferior to another race while a bigot is someone who either judges people by their race or dislikes a particular race.

There is a huge difference between an armed racist mob not letting white people through and police officers enforcing the law.

Not when one fear the police in ones community represent an "armed racist mob". It doesn't matter whether your or their fear is rational or not.

But there is huge difference in that the police have state support and cannot be avoided, while non-state armed racist mobs can be avoided.

 

[Harry Bosch]

I think that the double whammy of COVID and now the protests are starting to devastate the downtowns.