Can a new Cold War be avoided?

[Harry Bosch]

Gorbachev warns world on brink of new Cold War:

http://news.yahoo.com/gorbachev-warns-world-brink-cold-war-114711367.html

I think that it's scary that the tumbling Russian economy isn't stopping the Russians from continuing their invasion of Ukraine in the least. The Russian economy is tumbling due to the worldwide drop in oil, currency crashing, western sanctions, inflation, and investors moving their money to safer markets. I think that Ukraine is gone. It's too far away and not a part of NATO. To me, the larger issue is where will Russia stop? Do they have plans to invade the Baltics, Poland, or Finland. Why is Russia uniting the Eastern Europe countries against it?

 

[barbos]

West should stop behaving like 7 year old having tantrum.

 

[barbos]

And yes, Gorbachev blames US.

 

[Harry Bosch]

West should stop behaving like 7 year old having tantrum.

So you have no blame for mother Russia? It's okay to bully and intimidate other countries because the "US is behaving like a 7-year old having tantrum"?

 

[Jayjay]

Gorbachev warns world on brink of new Cold War:

http://news.yahoo.com/gorbachev-warns-world-brink-cold-war-114711367.html

I think that it's scary that the tumbling Russian economy isn't stopping the Russians from continuing their invasion of Ukraine in the least. The Russian economy is tumbling due to the worldwide drop in oil, currency crashing, western sanctions, inflation, and investors moving their money to safer markets. I think that Ukraine is gone. It's too far away and not a part of NATO. To me, the larger issue is where will Russia stop? Do they have plans to invade the Baltics, Poland, or Finland. Why is Russia uniting the Eastern Europe countries against it?

I don't think Russia will invade straight up NATO and EU countries. Putin's ambition is to make sure that the countries who are on the fence or under Russian influence ar eput on a tighter leash: Belarus, Kazakstan, Ukraine, Serbia among others. One tool for this purpose is the customs union between the countries. And if he gets lucky, he can sow discord between EU countries and try to break them from within. Hungary is already on that path despite being an EU member. I figure that Putin thinks he can weather the sanctions for now as long as they don't start escalating, and that he can keep EU at bay by holding Ukraine hostage. He already managed to convince EU to postpone the implementation of the Ukraine-EU association agreement by more than two years.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

As I've said before, it takes only one country to decide on the path of war.

Russia has decided on the path of at least limited war.

 

[dystopian]

I don't think Russia will invade straight up NATO and EU countries.

Putin and his advisers have some not so subtle threats implying he's willing to do just that in the case of the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden though. Those are *probably* just petty attempts to intimidate and influence, and have been mostly politely ignored by their recipients until recently. Nonetheless, the deteriorating situation in Russia itself makes me concerned that Russian leaders could grow desperate/overconfident enough to carry through with their bygone dreams. I think they might just be crazy enough under the 'right' circumstances.

The Russians like to push as far as they can, when they can. During the cold-war, we ignored it because what else where we going to do? After the cold-war, we ignored it because nobody took Russia all that seriously anymore. I think maybe some, like Putin, have come to interpret that indifference as the sort that stretches far further than it actually does. A belief that they can get away with anything, coupled with rampant nationalism and autocratic rule, is a recipe for disaster.

And if he gets lucky, he can sow discord between EU countries and try to break them from within. Hungary is already on that path despite being an EU member.

Hungary would be on that path regardless of Putin, though. They have some serious problems with corrupt leaders and the far right coming into power; and Brussels is the bogeyman of the far right in pretty much every EU country, Russia doesn't really influence that at all. Seeing how Hungarians respond to some of the government's efforts though, there seem to be many parallels to Ukraine pre-invasion. My guess is it won't go quite that far, and Hungary will very slowly shift back before we can see a similar popular revolt take place.

 

[barbos]

West should stop behaving like 7 year old having tantrum.

So you have no blame for mother Russia? It's okay to bully and intimidate other countries because the "US is behaving like a 7-year old having tantrum"?

I agree with Gorbachev and put blame on US.

 

[Togo]

Putin and his advisers have some not so subtle threats implying he's willing to do just that in the case of the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden though.

Estonia is the most obvious target, since it has a large russian-speaking population, and a small military. Finland would be much much more difficult, because there's a large amount of teritory to try and control, not much Russian-facing infrastructure, and little or no sympathy with Russia. Sweden is a pipe dream - unless they committed to open overt warfare they'd simply lose the fight trying to go over by land, and there's no practical way of deploying a sea force in the Baltic, off the coast of Poland and Germany, while pretending that it isn't an all-out war on NATO.

Those are *probably* just petty attempts to intimidate and influence, and have been mostly politely ignored by their recipients until recently. Nonetheless, the deteriorating situation in Russia itself makes me concerned that Russian leaders could grow desperate/overconfident enough to carry through with their bygone dreams. I think they might just be crazy enough under the 'right' circumstances.

The most obvious circumstance to my mind would be 'Putin starting to lose power'. Under that circumstance, there's a limit to how far the Russian army would go, I think.

And if he gets lucky, he can sow discord between EU countries and try to break them from within. Hungary is already on that path despite being an EU member.

Hungary would be on that path regardless of Putin, though. They have some serious problems with corrupt leaders and the far right coming into power; and Brussels is the bogeyman of the far right in pretty much every EU country, Russia doesn't really influence that at all. Seeing how Hungarians respond to some of the government's efforts though, there seem to be many parallels to Ukraine pre-invasion. My guess is it won't go quite that far, and Hungary will very slowly shift back before we can see a similar popular revolt take place.

I can't see Russia havng much luck in splitting up the EU. They don't agree on much, but forming an economic block against Russian aggression is kinda the entire point.

 

[barbos]

That's just in, Churchill tried to convince Truman to nuke Soviet Union.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-win-Cold-War-uncovered-secret-FBI-files.html

 

[funinspace]

"Can a new Cold War be avoided?" - I don't think the US can afford the Global War on Terror and a Cold War as well. We are already spending on the spy-military-complex at a break neck pace....

 

[Loren Pechtel]

"Can a new Cold War be avoided?" - I don't think the US can afford the Global War on Terror and a Cold War as well. We are already spending on the spy-military-complex at a break neck pace....

One doesn't get to choose the defensive wars one is in.

 

[ksen]

"Can a new Cold War be avoided?"

That's kind of up to Russia.

 

[funinspace]

"Can a new Cold War be avoided?" - I don't think the US can afford the Global War on Terror and a Cold War as well. We are already spending on the spy-military-complex at a break neck pace....

One doesn't get to choose the defensive wars one is in.

LOL...yeah right...700% comes to mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
1 United States United States 640.0 3.8
2 China People's Republic of China[a] 188.0 2
3 Russia Russia[a] 87.

 

[Harry Bosch]

"Can a new Cold War be avoided?" - I don't think the US can afford the Global War on Terror and a Cold War as well. We are already spending on the spy-military-complex at a break neck pace....

I don't think that there are many in the US or in the NATO countries who want a new cold war! But many of us are also against Russia annexing other people's land.

 

[arkirk]

One doesn't get to choose the defensive wars one is in.

LOL...yeah right...700% comes to mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
1 United States United States 640.0 3.8
2 China People's Republic of China[a] 188.0 2
3 Russia Russia[a] 87.

Could my eyes be deceiving me? Russia spending 1/17th as much as the U.S. on miliary shit. We are really in danger here...my my! Who is kidding who here. Gorbachev has it right. We can't avoid hot or cold wars because that is all we are set up to do. All the money put into spying and nuclear bomb "modernization" and meddling world wide to maintain dominance....also all the ignoring of the real human problems in foreign lands and pretending to be champions of democracy. We are pissing away not just our future, but those of about everybody on earth. Our one and only national priority seems to be world domination. So, until we change OUR WAYS, there is no end to the cold and hot wars we will be participating in. This terrorism thing is nothing more than blowback. We all had better get that straight. We believe in peace? It don't look that way to me.

 

[Harry Bosch]

LOL...yeah right...700% comes to mind.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
1 United States United States 640.0 3.8
2 China People's Republic of China[a] 188.0 2
3 Russia Russia[a] 87.

Could my eyes be deceiving me? Russia spending 1/17th as much as the U.S. on miliary shit. We are really in danger here...my my! Who is kidding who here. Gorbachev has it right. We can't avoid hot or cold wars because that is all we are set up to do. All the money put into spying and nuclear bomb "modernization" and meddling world wide to maintain dominance....also all the ignoring of the real human problems in foreign lands and pretending to be champions of democracy. We are pissing away not just our future, but those of about everybody on earth. Our one and only national priority seems to be world domination. So, until we change OUR WAYS, there is no end to the cold and hot wars we will be participating in. This terrorism thing is nothing more than blowback. We all had better get that straight. We believe in peace? It don't look that way to me.

Huh? How does the level of American military spending affect Russian invasion of sovereign countries?

 

[Jayjay]

Russian and American military spending as percentage of GDP is about the same, ~4%.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Russian and American military spending as percentage of GDP is about the same, ~4%.

As a percentage of GDP hardly matters here if 4% gets you a tin can and the guy an aircraft carrier.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Russian and American military spending as percentage of GDP is about the same, ~4%.

As a percentage of GDP hardly matters here if 4% gets you a tin can and the guy an aircraft carrier.

Holy Crap! So if the US just reduces it's military spending, Russia won't invade any more countries? If so, that's totally cool!!