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Now US Afgan and post Trump. Was: Brexit derail

Swammerdami

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... The mistake the political elites did was that they failed to listen to what the working class were saying. They took them for granted for too long. The Brexit referendum wasn't about Brexit. It was a referendum on the people's confidence with their leaders. They got a much needed wake up call. Yes, it was a shame that this led to leaving the EU of all things. But it is what it is. I see Trump being voted into power in USA the same kind of thing. If you don't take the impoverished uneducated grey masses seriously for long enough, they will rise up and do dumb shit.

In general I think these kinds of things act to keep politicians on their toes. That's not necessarily a bad thing, in the long run.

Your reference to "impoverished uneducated grey masses" may apply, weakly, to the Brexit vote, but it doesn't fit the facts of the 2016 U.S. election: Clinton won among those with less than $50,000 income by a large margin. (The above-$100,000 vote was split almost evenly. Trump's win came from the middle-income group. You are right about the "uneducated" though: Clinton won ALL income groups among college graduates.)

I think the big divide in both elections derived from Truth vs Lies. In the Brave New Information Age, Winston Churchill's adage applies: "A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." Truth-tellers just can't keep up with the lying propaganda which has taken over social media and the air-waves.


It's interesting how the American vote demographics have shifted just in a few decades. In the mid-20th century, income was the best single predictor of the D-R split; by the late-20th and early-21st century, church-going was the best single predictor for white voters! Today, the best single predictor for white voters is education level.
 
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... The mistake the political elites did was that they failed to listen to what the working class were saying. They took them for granted for too long. The Brexit referendum wasn't about Brexit. It was a referendum on the people's confidence with their leaders. They got a much needed wake up call. Yes, it was a shame that this led to leaving the EU of all things. But it is what it is. I see Trump being voted into power in USA the same kind of thing. If you don't take the impoverished uneducated grey masses seriously for long enough, they will rise up and do dumb shit.

In general I think these kinds of things act to keep politicians on their toes. That's not necessarily a bad thing, in the long run.

Your reference to "impoverished uneducated grey masses" may apply, weakly, to the Brexit vote, but it doesn't fit the facts of the 2016 U.S. election: Clinton won among those with less than $50,000 income by a large margin. (The above-$100,000 vote was split almost evenly. Trump's win came from the middle-income group. You are right about the "uneducated" though: Clinton won ALL income groups among college graduates.)

I think the big divide in both elections derived from Truth vs Lies. In the Brave New Information Age, Winston Churchill's adage applies: "A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on." Truth-tellers just can't keep up with the lying propaganda which has taken over social media and the air-waves.


It's interesting how the American vote demographics have shifted just in a few decades. In the mid-20th century, income was the best single predictor of the D-R split; by the late-20th and early-21st century, church-going was the best single predictor for white voters! Today, the best single predictor for white voters is education level.

I think it's too easy of an explanation. It's too self congratulatory. Labelling your political opponents as gullible fools unable to think for themselves is a bit arrogant IMHO. Perhaps there's another explanation?

I'd hesitate to call it a failure of political elites. One important question to ask is do American politicians actually have tangible and complete control over the U.S. economy. And if the answer is no then U.S. history is actually a product of international politics, the international economy, and it's own electorate, not American politicians (or for Brexit it's politicians).

And usually what we see when an economy starts to decline are people becoming more susceptible to populists - those who deceive with a promise of a better life and free money.

So I don't think you can really pin this kind of thing on politicians, some nation-states just have a trajectory and it is what it is. Even more, there is an element of randomness - consider U.S. history if Donald Trump didn't exist, or if 9/11 didn't happen.
 
Well, there's still more than four months to the end of the extension to the extended extension of the transition period, and already the Army are being brought in to keep the supermarkets from running out of food.

Anyone tired of all the winning yet?

View attachment 34797
Isn't it less supply and more distribution? Regardless, it doesn't look good.

PM Johnson's "Let it (the Pandemic) go" plan has done marvelously at spreading the virus, which sidelined drivers for trucks (called lorry's by the Brits for some reason). Again, this is one of those, well if you are vax'd, why should you care issues. Well, we cared and now there are gaps on the grocery shelves, because the food that should be on them, hasn't been delivered. I'm noticing gaps growing again state side in Ohio. Frozen waffles and confectionaries apparently are stuck in customs or something.

But you know, freedom is awesome. The freedom to wait for food to be delivered is sweet!

Is there anything more absurd than a grocery shortage without a food supply shortage?!

The Covid "pingdemic" is a desperate propaganda tactic, designed to conceal the fact that the problem is Brexit.

And it's a supply problem - not of produce, but of labour. Specifically, blue-collar labour.

The EU depends on free movement of workers, with the middle class white-collar workforce in the UK, Germany and France being supported by a working class of tradesmen from Eastern and Southern Europe. Brexit sent away all those Eastern Europeans from the UK, and it turns out that having them 'over here stealing our jobs' was far better than having them over there not doing those jobs.

Almost nobody in England is ready, willing and able to pick fruit or harvest vegetables, but that's a minor issue as the UK largely depends on imports for her food supply anyway.

The big issues are in the skilled blue-collar sector. Tradesmen such as plumbers and electricians cannot be created overnight; And the UK hasn't had enough home grown skilled tradesmen for decades.

But where the shortage is most pressing and noticeable is haulage. The UK depended on European truck drivers, and Brexit made commercial driving to and from the UK undesirable on many levels, and commercial driving within the UK illegal for non UK residents.

The UK has an estimated shortage of 100,000 truck drivers, and this shortage cannot be explained by Covid - Germany, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Spain, Italy, etc., all have Covid, but none have this problem.

The problem is that when you 'send them back where they came from', you can no longer depend on them to work for you.

And there are few people in the UK who want to do such a horrible job for anything close to the wages on offer, and even those who can be incentivised to do so by increasing wages and handing out bonuses are not able to start at once - it takes weeks or months to get a license, and at least a couple of years to get the experience and skills to do the job well enough to be useful and profitable to an employer.

The only viable solution is to import skilled drivers (and other trades - a shortage of plumbers and electricians isn't as visible or as urgent, but it's nevertheless a significant problem). They won't come from the EU, because they're not allowed to - the Home Office refuses to add truck drivers to the working visa categories that would allow it, and because even if they did, it's easier for EU citizens to get work in (for example) Germany, and the pay and conditions are the same or better there. So ultimately the UK has now got to choose between serious shortages of essential workers, or mass immigration mostly from non-EU countries - which is EXACTLY what the dumb shit Brexit voters and the dumb shit government they elected are most adamantly opposed to.

What a clusterfuck. If only someone had mentioned back in 2016 that it might not all be easy and glorious. :rolleyes:
So somewhat like the shortage in landscaping and other fields in the US when Trump went bonkers on the Southern border.
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
Based on the damage done to our Democracy... the Afghan pullout... the USPS still getting destroyed... and other Trump policies that Biden can't just 180 out of because of bureacracy, we've got too many things to worry about to be giddy over Brexit, which doesn't help our allies. We don't lose directly from Brexit, but we don't gain anything, and it diminishes ties in Europe.
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
Based on the damage done to our Democracy... the Afghan pullout... the USPS still getting destroyed... and other Trump policies that Biden can't just 180 out of because of bureacracy, we've got too many things to worry about to be giddy over Brexit, which doesn't help our allies. We don't lose directly from Brexit, but we don't gain anything, and it diminishes ties in Europe.

I'm not giddy. I think it's the kind of "act in haste, repent in leisure" sort of thing that Western style government is prone to.

But yeah, we Americans do stand to gain, at least in terms of corporate profits. Burning bridges with the EU makes GB more reliant on USA markets. That's great news for America.

At least the American banking and investing class.
Tom
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
Based on the damage done to our Democracy... the Afghan pullout... the USPS still getting destroyed... and other Trump policies that Biden can't just 180 out of because of bureacracy, we've got too many things to worry about to be giddy over Brexit, which doesn't help our allies. We don't lose directly from Brexit, but we don't gain anything, and it diminishes ties in Europe.

I'm not giddy. I think it's the kind of "act in haste, repent in leisure" sort of thing that Western style government is prone to.

But yeah, we Americans do stand to gain, at least in terms of corporate profits. Burning bridges with the EU makes GB more reliant on USA markets. That's great news for America.

At least the American banking and investing class.
Tom
A weaker Western Europe is not in the US's best interest.
 
I'm not giddy. I think it's the kind of "act in haste, repent in leisure" sort of thing that Western style government is prone to.

But yeah, we Americans do stand to gain, at least in terms of corporate profits. Burning bridges with the EU makes GB more reliant on USA markets. That's great news for America.

At least the American banking and investing class.
Tom
A weaker Western Europe is not in the US's best interest.

I didn't say America. I said the rich folk.

You know, the people who can buy Senators. I think it is in their best interests, at least for the next several financial quarters.
Tom
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
Based on the damage done to our Democracy... the Afghan pullout... the USPS still getting destroyed... and other Trump policies that Biden can't just 180 out of because of bureacracy, we've got too many things to worry about to be giddy over Brexit, which doesn't help our allies. We don't lose directly from Brexit, but we don't gain anything, and it diminishes ties in Europe.

The Afghan pullout has been the best strategic decision in the two decades we were there.
 
Heh.

Y'all got Brexit. We got Trump.

Disastrous as he was, I'm pretty sure fixing the Trump issues will be less painful than fixing Brexit.

As an Irish American I'm giggling.
Tom
Based on the damage done to our Democracy... the Afghan pullout... the USPS still getting destroyed... and other Trump policies that Biden can't just 180 out of because of bureacracy, we've got too many things to worry about to be giddy over Brexit, which doesn't help our allies. We don't lose directly from Brexit, but we don't gain anything, and it diminishes ties in Europe.

The Afghan pullout has been the best strategic decision in the two decades we were there.

I completely agree.

Someone upthread referred to it as a huge blunder on Biden's part. I sorta agree, but not at all in the way they meant. Biden's blunder was not doing it a decade ago.

Obama, Biden, and Clinton might have done it many years ago. The Obama administration's Middle East policy was a huge disappointment, IMHO.

But I also recognize that, as now, they were scrambling to repair the wreckage left behind by the previous Republican administration. They didn't have any magic wand to wave around. By the time they'd pulled the USA out of the economic nose dive we were in, Capitol Hill was dominated by TeaParty obstructionist politicians who's goal was to make Obama a one term President by trashing anything that might improve the situation for Americans as a whole.

So Biden could have done better back in 2010. By 2021, things were so bad that just following Trump's exit plan was the best of all the ugly options.
That's what we've got.
Tom
 
Perhaps the TFT staff would be kind enough to move utterly irrelevant posts about USA foreign policy to a more appropriate thread?
Tom
 
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