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Split: Sanders impact on Abortion Laws

That the election would be decided by Pennsylvania and other Rust Belt states was obvious to anyone with common-sense about simple math who clicked to fivethirtyeight dot com and read about "tipping states." The website showed a graphic with Pennsylvania conspicuously placed at the fulcrum of a teeter-totter. That website could have been used as a blueprint for where to campaign. Instead Clinton surrounded herself with idiots.

I wasn't a member of TFT in 2016, but I was posting regularly at The.Other.Message.Board. Whenever I pointed out that Pennsylvania was indeed the Keystone for that election, I was met with derision and zero support. Come November I didn't bother with "Told you so;" there were too many other idiocies to whack at. :)
You were right to be derided. Clinton was "winning" in the polls, but it turned out that "unknown" was actually Trump support. There was also a major wave of anti-establishment washing across the Western Hemisphere.

There were people like Moore who thought Trump would win, but the numbers didn't seem capable of lying. They did. Trump's influence on the world was unprecedented in our elections. The 'grab them by the pussy' would have Mondale'd any other candidate before 2016.

I think you completely missed the point. The issue was not whether Clinton's chance for victory was 90% or just 60%. (And anyone who assumed that chance was 99+% wasn't studying the polls.) Clinton should have operated to optimize her success probability regardless of whether that increased her chance from 90% to 92% or from 60% to 62%. Only the tipping states mattered. If those Rust Belt tipping states were really "in her pocket" that meant she was going to win easily, and it wouldn't matter where she campaigned.

When playing a game like contract bridge when success seems very likely, you identify what bad breaks are possible and play to cater for that scenario, however unlikely. Similarly the Clinton campaign should have taken the "safety play."

This is pretty good game theory, yeah. The problem is that a lot of democrats seem to think being good and right in principle gets you the win, and the republicans are whole hog in on playing game. In reality, you need both to know where you want to be AND good at game to get there.
 
I think you completely missed the point. The issue was not whether Clinton's chance for victory was 90% or just 60%. (And anyone who assumed that chance was 99+% wasn't studying the polls.) Clinton should have operated to optimize her success probability regardless of whether that increased her chance from 90% to 92% or from 60% to 62%. Only the tipping states mattered. If those Rust Belt tipping states were really "in her pocket" that meant she was going to win easily, and it wouldn't matter where she campaigned.

When playing a game like contract bridge when success seems very likely, you identify what bad breaks are possible and play to cater for that scenario, however unlikely. Similarly the Clinton campaign should have taken the "safety play."

I caucused for Bernie in '16. At the caucus, Clinton took the most votes. But that wasn't what discouraged me. What really told me the cause was lost was that the caucus tables for Clinton were populated by suits, and heavily made-up, jewelry-wearing Karens. The Bernie tables featured lots of hair, beards and granny dresses. It was apparent right then that lots of the Bernies weren't going to EVER vote for Clinton, so when she won the nomination I was fairly certain it was over.

Wow.

I'm a lot more like the hippy chick than the ladies who lunch and always have been. Fuck, my husband is that guy who's worn a beard since the 70's when it allowed him to buy beer underage. We're definitely not Sanders people. Our kids, including one former frat boy/lawyer who loves his suits is definitely in the Bernie camp. The crunchier among them, the less they were inclined to vote Sanders.

I would have voted for Sanders over Trump but it would have involved an awful lot of nose holding. And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.
 
I have never been fond of either Clinton but I did admire and respect Hillary's achievements and the respect she garnered on the hill and overseas. I still do.

This!

One of the big realizations I had during the Obama administration was the value of clout. No matter how good the intentions or character of the president, without clout on Capitol Hill s/he's just going to stay mired in the muck. While the rest of the Swamp Denizens slither around and gulp down anything they want.

Godzillary had that kind of clout. She was one of the most fearsome predators in The Swamp. She didn't acquire that kind of power by always being nice and playing fair. But she did have it. She could have accomplished more of Sanders' platform than Sanders.
Tom

See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.
 
I would have voted for Sanders over Trump but it would have involved an awful lot of nose holding. And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.

Me, too. Of course, I'd have voted for a trained monkey before I voted Trump.

However, had it been Sanders and Kasich I'd have probably voted Kasich. Not because I prefer his policies. Rather, because I consider him more competent and better representative of the American people as a whole.
Tom
 
I have never been fond of either Clinton but I did admire and respect Hillary's achievements and the respect she garnered on the hill and overseas. I still do.

This!

One of the big realizations I had during the Obama administration was the value of clout. No matter how good the intentions or character of the president, without clout on Capitol Hill s/he's just going to stay mired in the muck. While the rest of the Swamp Denizens slither around and gulp down anything they want.

Godzillary had that kind of clout. She was one of the most fearsome predators in The Swamp. She didn't acquire that kind of power by always being nice and playing fair. But she did have it. She could have accomplished more of Sanders' platform than Sanders.
Tom

See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.

Misogyny?
I had similar terms to refer to Mr. Clinton. My usual was Slick Willy. Does that make me a misandrist?

Sorry. What I'm seeing in your post is gender bigotry.
Woke gender bigotry.
Tom
 
Fuck, my husband is that guy who's worn a beard since the 70's when it allowed him to buy beer underage.
Heh...
I've still got mine too. Started growing it in 1976, at age 18.
Tom
 
See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.

Misogyny?
I had similar terms to refer to Mr. Clinton. My usual was Slick Willy. Does that make me a misandrist?

Sorry. What I'm seeing in your post is gender bigotry.
Woke gender bigotry.
Tom

What you're seeing is someone, a woman, in fact, who has faced bigotry directed against all females, every single day of her life. The name calling, the implication that if one didn't like the proscribed 'girl' things that she wasn't a real girl, that it wasn't ok to be smart--or if you were, you should definitely not let the boys or men know. Same thing with sports. The slurs I heard directed at girls who were good athletes were definitely worse than the slurs I heard directed against boys who were obviously and effeminately gay. Nobody lynches uppity women but they sure do get a lot of rape threats. Not always just threats. And by uppity, I mean being good at something that some insecure male likes to do.

So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters. Bill, at least, earned the Slick Willy nomer, with his "it depends on what is means..." crap.
 
And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.

Except we saw more Bernie supporters voting for Hillary than we saw Hillary supporters voting for Obama. As for talking trash, heck this thread started with trashing Bernie and his supporters. Hillary herself trashed Bernie in interviews blaming him for not supporting her enough, even though he did around 39 rallies and events for her.
 
thus in conclusion, since a statistically not insignificant percentage of democratic voters said they would absolutely refuse to vote democrat except for this one guy, the problem is that the DNC didn't make bernie the nominee.

Had they done that, 2016 would have been a landslide. Maybe not like 1972 or 1984, but certainly like 1988.

if your ONLY argument is "we must get as many votes as possible in order to beat trump" it is 100% your fault if your nominee is someone that a portion of your voting base has loudly sworn that they absolutely will not vote for.
People usually do not react well to extortion.

2016 was a clear cut case of "the system" doing it wrong. all the people who were clutching pearls over the idea of trump should have immediately gotten behind bernie if they really wanted the largest voting body possible.
Not really, as Bernie would have turned off a lot of moderates.
 
So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters.

Male politicians get called names all the time, so why should not female ones? Gender equality should not only be when convenient for women.

Also, do you get this outraged over all female politicians or just the ones from your side of the aisle? What did you think of the names Margaret Thatcher was called, or closer to home, Sarah Palin?
 
See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.
If "Godzillary" is "misogynistic", are all the insults that have been thrown at Trump (like "Fuckface von Clownstick") misandrist? Or is this yet another of your signature double standards?
 
See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.
If "Godzillary" is "misogynistic", are all the insults that have been thrown at Trump (like "Fuckface von Clownstick") misandrist? Or is this yet another of your signature double standards?

Yea, I'm guilty of this as well. I didn't call Bush, Reagan, McConnell, and other republicans that I disagree with such names. However, I just think that Trump is just such a vile and repulsive person. He's destroying our country. And the sad thing is that many of republican friends don't see it.
 
So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters.

Male politicians get called names all the time, so why should not female ones? Gender equality should not only be when convenient for women.

Also, do you get this outraged over all female politicians or just the ones from your side of the aisle? What did you think of the names Margaret Thatcher was called, or closer to home, Sarah Palin?

What's really ironic is that I was supporting Hillary, explaining how I went from despising her to admiring and supporting her.
Tom
 
See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.
If "Godzillary" is "misogynistic", are all the insults that have been thrown at Trump (like "Fuckface von Clownstick") misandrist? Or is this yet another of your signature double standards?

I don’t think that Hillary is a monster. Trump has demonstrated that he’s a monster. He’s earned every single epithet hurled at him. And so, btw, did Sarah Palin and so does MTG and Boebert and all of those idiot crowd.
 
See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.
If "Godzillary" is "misogynistic", are all the insults that have been thrown at Trump (like "Fuckface von Clownstick") misandrist? Or is this yet another of your signature double standards?

Yea, I'm guilty of this as well. I didn't call Bush, Reagan, McConnell, and other republicans that I disagree with such names. However, I just think that Trump is just such a vile and repulsive person. He's destroying our country. And the sad thing is that many of republican friends don't see it.

I think that McConnell is as bad because he was and remains quite willing to use Trump to achieve his desired goals—and no mercy fir him that instead Trump used him even more so. McConnell just uses better grammar, is functionally literate, dressed better and doesn’t brag about his sex life. On the margin, I rate them the same: vile, disgusting, with no genuine thought about what is best for anyone outside themselves (Trump) or those like them (McConnell).
 
So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters.

Male politicians get called names all the time, so why should not female ones? Gender equality should not only be when convenient for women.

Also, do you get this outraged over all female politicians or just the ones from your side of the aisle? What did you think of the names Margaret Thatcher was called, or closer to home, Sarah Palin?

What's really ironic is that I was supporting Hillary, explaining how I went from despising her to admiring and supporting her.
Tom

And you had to throw in the ugly name.
 
And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.

Except we saw more Bernie supporters voting for Hillary than we saw Hillary supporters voting for Obama. As for talking trash, heck this thread started with trashing Bernie and his supporters. Hillary herself trashed Bernie in interviews blaming him for not supporting her enough, even though he did around 39 rallies and events for her.

I strongly doubt that ‘we’ve seen’ that. I STILL read/hear Bernie supporters/bros trashing Clinton, claiming he was robbed a d how their geezer would have beaten Trump ( no, he would not have). Clinton supporters simply re-organized and are supporting other candidates for other offices.
 
So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters.

Male politicians get called names all the time, so why should not female ones? Gender equality should not only be when convenient for women.
As usual, you missed the point - smart and outspoken does not mean every politician. Nor is name calling the same thing as referring to someone as a monster.
[
Also, do you get this outraged over all female politicians or just the ones from your side of the aisle? What did you think of the names Margaret Thatcher was called, or closer to home, Sarah Palin?
Ms. Palin is not smart, so she does not fit the criterion of smart and outspoken. And was Ms Thatcher referred to as some sort of monster? If not, once again, you have nothing but straw.
 
Hillary Clinton is an extremely intelligent and compassionate woman. She delivered an award-winning speech on women's rights to a major U.N. organization. Some say it was Hillary, not Bill, who'd have made the better President. It is heart-breaking to see all the dislike directed against her by rational Americans. Part of it is misogyny; part of it is the lies repeated over and over and over and over by right-wing haters: After a while, even rational people start assuming "there must be something to it." (And part of the problem is that Hillary wasn't an experienced politician, i.e. experienced liar.)

As just one example, consider the Iraq War Authorization for which Senator Hillary voted Yea. She delivered a powerful speech on the floor of the Senate, explaining why — If the Bush-Cheney Administration truly were good-spirited rather than hypocritical liars — her vote was the way to avoid war. Yet all one ever hears is "The Witch of Benghazi voted for the Iraq War; Natter natter blah-blah." These people aren't even aware of her speech, and certainly never read it. Joe Biden voted for the same Authorization but nobody cares about that.

It is truly a huge shame the way Americans have treated Hillary Clinton. (She even gets more heat for Monica's blow-jobs than Bill got!) ... And it should be a warning: In 2024 Biden will be too old and the Veep, whatever her qualities, lacks the most important qualification for American Potus: a penis.

It was apparent right then that lots of the Bernies weren't going to EVER vote for Clinton, so when she won the nomination I was fairly certain it was over.

Bernie Bros too stupid to vote for Hillary are beneath contempt. And adopting the tactic of Mafia protection racketeers ("Do you love your children? Vote for Bernie if you don't want us to hurt them") makes the pretense that Sanderistas seek an ethical society laughable.

I think you completely missed the point. The issue was not whether Clinton's chance for victory was 90% or just 60%. (And anyone who assumed that chance was 99+% wasn't studying the polls.) Clinton should have operated to optimize her success probability regardless of whether that increased her chance from 90% to 92% or from 60% to 62%. Only the tipping states mattered. If those Rust Belt tipping states were really "in her pocket" that meant she was going to win easily, and it wouldn't matter where she campaigned.

When playing a game like contract bridge when success seems very likely, you identify what bad breaks are possible and play to cater for that scenario, however unlikely. Similarly the Clinton campaign should have taken the "safety play."

I caucused for Bernie in '16. At the caucus, Clinton took the most votes. But that wasn't what discouraged me. What really told me the cause was lost was that the caucus tables for Clinton were populated by suits, and heavily made-up, jewelry-wearing Karens. The Bernie tables featured lots of hair, beards and granny dresses. It was apparent right then that lots of the Bernies weren't going to EVER vote for Clinton, so when she won the nomination I was fairly certain it was over.

Wow.

I'm a lot more like the hippy chick than the ladies who lunch and always have been. Fuck, my husband is that guy who's worn a beard since the 70's when it allowed him to buy beer underage. We're definitely not Sanders people. Our kids, including one former frat boy/lawyer who loves his suits is definitely in the Bernie camp. The crunchier among them, the less they were inclined to vote Sanders.

I would have voted for Sanders over Trump but it would have involved an awful lot of nose holding. And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.

I approve of Toni's post.

See? That Godzillary comment is exactly the misogyny that lost Clinton the election.

Misogyny?
I had similar terms to refer to Mr. Clinton. My usual was Slick Willy. Does that make me a misandrist?

Sorry. What I'm seeing in your post is gender bigotry.
Woke gender bigotry.
Tom

What you're seeing is someone, a woman, in fact, who has faced bigotry directed against all females, every single day of her life. The name calling, the implication that if one didn't like the proscribed 'girl' things that she wasn't a real girl, that it wasn't ok to be smart--or if you were, you should definitely not let the boys or men know. Same thing with sports. The slurs I heard directed at girls who were good athletes were definitely worse than the slurs I heard directed against boys who were obviously and effeminately gay. Nobody lynches uppity women but they sure do get a lot of rape threats. Not always just threats. And by uppity, I mean being good at something that some insecure male likes to do.

So, yeah, I'm a bit touchy about smart women who dare to be also outspoken and worse, powerful on their own referred to as monsters. Bill, at least, earned the Slick Willy nomer, with his "it depends on what is means..." crap.

And this one.

Not really, as Bernie would have turned off a lot of moderates.

Polls — whether nationwide or in the critical Rust Belt states — agreed with Derec that Sanders would have gotten fewer votes in the November election than Clinton got. Yet Bernie Bros — so eager to repeat every little factoid that supports their view — ignore polls that don't fit their narrative.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Speaking of the 2016 election: In the summer of 2016, while I still thought Clinton victory was probable, it was obvious to me that the election was going to be very close, and that Biden would be a stronger candidate than Clinton. It would have been possible (especially if Hillary cooperated) for the Party to "switch horses," the earlier the better. Not having the ears of major D.C. politicos, I posted this opinion at The.Other.Message.Board. (The response was exclusively "Nanner nanner nanner, Swammi doesn't know how primaries work.")

Later it was revealed that the Chairwoman (or such) of the DNC had the same idea as I.
 
And that's the difference between most Clinton and most Sanders voters. Clinton voters would have sucked it up and jumped on that train. Sanders voters are still talking trash about Hillary.

Except we saw more Bernie supporters voting for Hillary than we saw Hillary supporters voting for Obama. As for talking trash, heck this thread started with trashing Bernie and his supporters. Hillary herself trashed Bernie in interviews blaming him for not supporting her enough, even though he did around 39 rallies and events for her.

I strongly doubt that ‘we’ve seen’ that.
Actually we have.
CNN exit polling in '08 had 15% of Hillary supporters voting for McCain.

Meanwhile 12% of Sanders supporters voted for Trump.



I STILL read/hear Bernie supporters/bros trashing Clinton,

Well those whiney assholes need to stop. Just like the Clinton supporters need to stop blaming Bernie for her loss.


claiming he was robbed a d how their geezer would have beaten Trump ( no, he would not have).

I believe there was a chance. Some of the Trump support was from people just disgusted with 'politics as usual' and Hillary was just another standard politician to them. Trump also had the advantage of 25 years worth of smear campaigns against Hillary. He wouldn't have either of those advantages against Bernie. Some pro-establishment dems like to say Bernie couldn't win because he is a socialist, but moderate dems like Biden and Hillary get smeared as being extreme socialists/communists/etc. so I don't see that being a disadvantage for him.
 
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