Before you can believe anything, do you first have to refute every other belief in the universe?
According to Pascal's Wager, as you seem to understand it, our options are Heaven, Hell or It doesn't matter. The only way to get to Heaven, it concludes, is to accept a religion, and the only way to get to Hell is not to accept a religion.
No, the way to "get to Heaven" is to believe in Christ.
This is a lie, though, as you concede that picking the wrong religion leaves you 'just as bad off.'
A phrase like "the right religion" or "the wrong religion" is non-serious and has to be understood only in a sarcastic sense to have any legitimate point to it.
So of the four possible outcomes, the choice you make will more likely lead you to Hell than Heaven, thus the Wager lies.
What "four possible outcomes"? My point is that if there is a "Heaven" to get to or a "Hell" to escape from or a way to avoid annihilation at death, I think it's by believing in Christ that it's possible, or it's the life-giving power he possessed that might make it possible. I.e., this is the best possible hope for gaining that "salvation" or escape from death/Hell. And I think there is evidence for this, though there is also doubt.
The phrase "the Wager lies" means nothing.
Or at least, it's only valuable as a rationalization to feel smug after you've selected a religion.
And your obsession with bashing PW is only a rationalization for you to feel smug after you've rejected a religion. Your inability to explain your nonbelief without continuing to beat this dead horse suggests you might be insecure in your nonbelief.
You seem to think i have some sort of prejudice against 'better safe than sorry' arguments because of PW.
The actual state of affairs is that PW only purports to be an argument.
It's too flawed to count, though.
You've not pointed out any real flaw in it. Just because you can nit-pick it doesn't mean it's flawed.
The outburst "Pascal's Wager! Pascal's Wager!" is not a good argument against a "we don't know" or "it might be" reasoning.
But i've explained why Pascal's Wager is not valuable for reasoning.
You mean it is always unreasonable to say something like, "we don't know" or "I'm not sure" or "there is some doubt"? Whenever someone says this in a reasoning process, they are committing the flaw of Pascal's Wager and so whatever the point is, it must be incorrect? Any statement that says "I don't know for sure," or "this might be, but it's not a certainty," has to automatically be false? or the point being made must always be false?
Why is it not sometimes "valuable for reasoning" to say that one still has doubt, or that we don't know but that here is a possibility that might be true? Why is it automatically wrong to believe something based on evidence or reasoning, but also add that it is not a certainty, or that there still is doubt? What compels you to immediately pounce on that and accuse that doubting believer of committing some imagined logical flaw which you impulsively brand as a Pascal's Wager fallacy?
So once more, PW is a lie.
So according to you, it's a lie to ever say "I think this is the truth, but it's not a certainty," or "I don't know it for certain."
You can adopt a virtuous life and still be burning in Hell, just like an atheist.
Yes, it's only by believing in Christ that one escapes Hell (if there is a "Hell"), not by being morally superior.
Pascal's Wager is only good as a rationalization after the fact. To make a believer feel good about their belief.
No more so than rejecting Pascal's Wager is also a rationalization after the fact -- to make a non-believer feel good about their nonbelief.
Not at all. I don't believe because i see no reason to believe in gods. Or damnation. I have thought about the wager, though, and i see why it's seductive.
It just isn't worth a damn as an argument.
Then why do you waste space here propping it up as though it is an issue someone has raised, and then bash it again and again as if someone needs to be deprogrammed from it, and pretend that someone is committing this fallacy?
Your obsession with PW suggests that you feel insecure in your unbelief and need PW as a scapegoat to beat up on to make you feel good about your nonbelief. If you really are strong in your nonbelief, or have reasoned it through, why don't you find a way to express it without continually making PW your punching bag?
If instead one takes an agnostic view that we don't know what the truth is, then a P.W. kind of reasoning might be correct.
But it's not reasoning, therefore that 'kind' of reasoning cannot be correct.
It can be correct.
If someone begins by saying, "I have a belief which I can support with evidence or reasoning, but I do not have certainty, only good reasons to believe it is true, but there is still some doubt, . . ." that is a P.W. kind of reasoning. There is nothing wrong with holding a belief in this manner, where you think it might be true, that it's even
probably true, but still you have some doubt, and allow the possibility that it might not be true. And yet, because of the reasonable possibility, you believe it.
An agnostic might believe this way: "I don't know the truth, but I have a belief about it based on good reasoning or evidence." That is a legitimate agnostic view. It means not knowing, or admitting one doesn't know. But that does not preclude the possibility of holding a reasonable belief about it. And this is a Pascal's Wager kind of reasoning. It IS reasoning. It is an approach of questioning and looking for answers and being open to different possibilities, even though one has made a choice to believe one of the possibilities because it is reasonable.
I had a philosophy instructor in college who said that he figures some percentage of his beliefs are probably incorrect. I don't remember exactly, but maybe he said something like 5% or 10% of them.
I'm sure he meant that he would argue for every one of those beliefs. Taken one at a time, he thinks each one is true, and he would make the case for it. And yet, add them all up, maybe a hundred beliefs, and probably 5 or 10 of them are actually false. Why isn't it good to hold beliefs in this way? Why shouldn't this kind of believer try to make his case, even argue with gusto to prove the truth of it, even though there's a possibility he might be wrong? What's wrong with believing and reasoning that way? How is that not a form of reasoning?
You claim that no one can ever act or choose an answer or make a judgment without first establishing The Truth with absolute certainty? Only an ABSOLUTIST can ever be right or be entrusted to make a good decision?
One can hold a good belief, one which might be true and for which there is good reasoning or evidence, yet also have doubt about it, and from that standpoint make a valid argument, or state a reasonable case for that belief. If our reasoning is good, we will turn out right most of the time, and yet, we have to recognize sometimes that what we once believed, even with good reason, turned out to be incorrect.
I once believed that the "Trojan Horse" story was in Homer. Though this was an error, I was more correct in holding this belief than I would have been if I had thought it came from Herodotus. Believing it came from Herodotus would have been a worse error than the error of believing it came from Homer. You cannot simply brand every belief as true or false and condemn all the false ones equally. We can keep improving our beliefs, but it is a mistake to reject every belief no matter what until we KNOW the truth for certain. It's better to adopt beliefs based on reason and evidence, and recognize that some of those beliefs could turn out to be incorrect.
And science works better this way. Adopt a belief, or hypothesis, and proceed on the assumption that it's true, and go wherever it leads. But not just ANY belief. Choose what seems most likely as the hypothesis to work from. It's not blind faith. It's belief or faith based on evidence. There is still uncertainty, less evidence than one would prefer, but you believe based on what evidence there is.
There can never be anything wrong with saying, "I don't know, but what if it's true?"
[First, I need to correct my statement above. I should have said: There's nothing wrong with saying, "I don't know, but what if it's true?" Rather than: There's never anything wrong with saying . . . etc. Of course it might be wrong in some cases. Generally it's not wrong.]
Well, by 'it' do you mean all religion in general? Because then we have to determine
what if Satanism is true? and,
what if Shintoism is true? and,
what if Shatnerism is true? and,
666 Watch
Adidam The Way Of The Heart
[etc.]
The above listed beliefs and the millions more which could be added, are not mutually exclusive and might be considered as possibly true. Perhaps several on this list are true, or mostly true. There are degrees of truth here, where you have a complex belief system.
Is "Marxism" true? There are parts of Marxism that are true. It would be incorrect to brand it or almost any ideology as 100% false. And this being the case, all the "isms" on this list (except any prank names slipped in) should be considered to determine how much truth there may be to them.
African Methodist Episcopalian Church
AME Church
Amish
Anglican
Anthroposophy
Apollinarian
Apostolics
Aquarian Concepts
Aradianic Faerie Witches . . . . . . .
. . . . .Yoga Research Society
Zen Atheism
Zen Buddhism
Zodian New Age
Zones of Apollyon Sell your soul here.
Zukav New Age
Zendik Farm
Zentech
Zerubbabel
Zoroastrianism
Tenets of the Zoroastrians
Zygon International
How do you go about considering what if it (all of the above) is true?
What's the point? Most are at least partly true. You're saying no one can consider any belief at all unless one considers EVERY belief that ever existed? Can't read Plato unless you also read Plotinus and Spinoza and Squarcialuppi and every crackpot who ever self-published his theory of the universe?
Or, how do you go about trimming off some of the possibles?
You start by choosing the one on the list which you think is the most believable, and you consider it, having a proponent of it present their pitch to you.
You aren't making any case for anything on this list. What kind of claim do they make? Do they claim to have disproved that Christ ever had any power? What do they claim that addresses my point, or the point Pascal makes in his "wager"?
Just printing a long list of names, perhaps just random names from the phone book, doesn't prove anything. What claim are you making about anything on this list? It's not up to Pascal to examine every possible list of random names and disprove everything on the list.
If you think something on this list has something to say about our topic, tell us what it is. Just running out a long list of loose names doesn't disprove anything about Christ.
Choose one name off this list and tell us what that "ism" teaches that contradicts Christ or Pascal or the church or the Bible or whatever you claim it contradicts.
Not by PW, that's for sure.
Why does PW need to trim this list? Maybe many of them believe the same teaching that Pascal believed in. It's up to you, not Pascal, to show the relevance of something on this list. If you think this random list of names needs some trimming, then it's your job to do it.
If you're saying some of these are "rival" cults to the Christ belief, then pick out one of them and tell us how it is superior or equal to the Christ belief.
It's never worthless to seek what is more likely true, even if you can't know for sure, unless there is no benefit from finding truth. If there is a benefit to knowing the truth, or believing it, then it's beneficial if P.W. comes into play to help one find that truth.
But the wager does NOT help find the TRUTH. It does nothing to help a seeker differentiate between two offered truths to find the real one.
It doesn't have to. That help already exists, before Pascal presented his wager argument. Pascal doesn't have to provide what already exists.
It has no capacity for their being more than one religion.
Yes it does. There IS more than one religion and everyone knows there's more than one. And "the Wager" does not deny that there's more than one. The truth-seeker who considers "the Wager" argument has to take that into consideration. He doesn't need "the Wager" argument to tell him of the different many religions or beliefs. Rather, "the Wager" offers one, and the truth-seeker considers this one choice along with any others he thinks are equally important.
A choice that is presented to someone seeking answers does not have to provide ALL the choices that are possible to the seeker. Rather, the seeker has the option of considering any other choices that may also be out there.
If someone offers you a $100 bill (suppose you're a panhandler), do you have to make him wait while you first check everyone else in the world who might offer you a larger amount instead? No, there's nothing wrong with responding to the one choice offered, even if there are a million other choices also out there, and taking only the one presently offered. Or, you can also check around for other choices if you want. But the existence of all those other choices does not negate the one choice that is presently offered to you.
You could ask: Why is your offer better than any of the others out there?
But others offered this choice might not ask this. They may already know of other choices and have decided they're not very attractive.
Maybe, e.g., they know about Hinduism and Islam and Buddhism, and they know that the founders or teachers of these doctrines have no power or any evidence of the truth that they teach. Or that they teach only elusive mystical feelings about "oneness with the Universe" or "enlightenment" and so on which have no tangible meaning. Whereas they know that Christ performed miracle healing acts, thus demonstrating power that the others do not have.
So the hearer of "the Wager" already has knowledge of the other choices or beliefs and doesn't need Pascal to present those to him.
Any philosophical teaching has some imperfection or element of incompleteness about it that leaves it open to attack. The Golden Rule ("Do unto others . . ." etc.) is "flawed" because the one who is to "do" might be a masochist who likes to be whipped or beaten, and so if he follows the rule strictly, he has to go around whipping or beating others.
Any rule of life, or any principle, however lofty, will have some minor technical flaw that you can nit-pick about. That doesn't disprove the rule. It can still be a good rule or good principle. That Pascal doesn't provide a run-down on ALL the choices in the universe is just a nit-picking attack that does not undermine the basic point of his "Wager" argument. It doesn't refute Pascal anymore than the fact that some people are masochists refutes the Golden Rule as a universal ethical rule.
It is easy to factor in any of the other choices also, if one wants to, and ask why choice 1 or 2 or 3 would not really be a better one. If Pascal was asked that, I think he'd have to give some kind of answer. But he has to be asked first. Did someone interrupt him and ask: "Hey Blaise, what about this cult that teaches I can get to Heaven by believing in the Great White Pumpkin? How do I know their way is not the true path to salvation?"?
You have to put forth one of the choices like this and make a case for the Great White Pumpkin, or whatever it is, and show why you think that's not a better belief than the Christ belief. Then there's a real question to deal with, or a "Reason to Reject Christianity" to answer -- but just running out a long list of Great White Pumpkin cults does not give us anything of substance to deal with. (And I don't mean to ridicule the fine organizations listed here, many of which I know have some valuable ideas or teachings, but I don't think their existence
per se constitutes some kind of refutation of Christ belief.)
This is so even though there may be several conflicting beliefs competing for attention. This competition going on does not then lead to the conclusion, "Oh they're all hogwash! To Hell with them all!"
I'm not saying that a rejection of PW means that i reject everything BECAUSE i reject PW.
Your rejection of PW, as you've stated it, means that you reject ANY choice offered to you, unless you first examine ALL the choices in the universe first, and prove that all the other choices are worse than the one offered to you, and then only can you ever make a choice. You're branding that one choice offered as being "one religion only" which ignores all the others, and so it has to be rejected because all the others are not also presented to you along with it.
A better response to PW would be to mention 2 or 3 other choices and ask, "Why wouldn't these choices be just as good?" and show that these 2 or 3 alternative choices seem just as attractive or even more attractive than the PW choice.
I'm saying PW is not an argument.
It's a principle of arguing just as legitimate as any other. Even if it has flaws in it, that doesn't mean it isn't an argument. An argument doesn't have to be flawless to be an argument. Ptolemy's argument for the geocentric theory was an argument, even though it was wrong. There are arguments for a flat earth. I heard a flat-earther on a radio talk show who gave arguments, and he ran circles around every caller who challenged him. Just because you don't agree with an argument, or it has flaws, does not mean it's not really an "argument."