How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Copernicus]

From reporting and some online info Ujrain aND THE REGION HAVE AREAS OF ETHNIC rUSSIANS WHO FEE; LINKED TO rUSSIA.

Ukraine is yet another civil war. Like Syria, Iraq, Libya. and South Vietnam was never a state, it was arbitrary lines on a map over a treaty.

The idea that Ukraine will be a functioning democracy is about as probable as Libya or Iraq.

We are not learning from history. Democracy does not work unless there is a culture that will support it.

It is insanity to hear Biden say we will 'stand behind' both Taiwan and Ukraine. There are people in Taiwan who want to join china.

Not sure what to make of this. Ukraine is threatened by a blitzkrieg from its more powerful neighbor, but it is still a functioning democracy. It is hard to gauge what Russian speakers in the Donbas want while it is under the control of Russian-backed warlords, but the entire country of Ukraine did vote overwhelmingly (97%) for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 just before that country collapsed. The vote was overwhelming even in the Donbas region, but only about half or slightly more favored separation in Crimea. And that was a vote carried out by the Soviet Union itself. (See  1991 Soviet Union referendum)

Exactly 30 years ago today, Gorbachev resigned on December 25, causing the instant dissolution of the Soviet empire. In 1994, Russia, the US, the UK, and Ukraine, signed the  Budapest Memo that guaranteed Ukraine's territorial sovereignty in exchange for total denuclearization. Interestingly, Mearsheimer was a lone voice warning against denuclearization, on the grounds that lack of nuclear deterrence would lead to conflict with Russia. Barbos agrees with Mearsheimer about everything, so that must mean he also thinks Ukraine should have kept its weapons. In any case, Russia has unilaterally and egregiously violated its 1994 guarantee of security for Ukraine, but the US and UK are still obligated to stand by the agreement. Ukraine had that expectation then, and it has it now.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

There are people in the U.S. that prefer authoritarianism over democracy. That's why we vote. Putin is doing a good job of orchestrating the situation. Without him it's a nothingburger.

 

[steve_bank]

The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO. There is no need to provide militray supoort to Ukraine, another esource sink hole that gives us no benefit.

Biden campaigned on getting us out of conflict and took the political hit on withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Now he is potentialy putting us in another no win situation. Does anyone think given Afghanistan and Iraq Europeans are going to fight Russia in any capacity?

NATO was creqted to defend wetrn Europe from Russian aggression, not to go to war to try and crease a democracy.

You also have to commander collusion between China and Russia to create simultaneous military pressure over Ukraine and Taiwan. Add the potential for NK to take advantage and get agressive.

A potential two front conflict against well armed adversaries.

We could easily walk into a conflict that escalates out of control.

 

[barbos]

Mearsheimer has been addressed over several posts,

No, you did not. You skipped 95% of his arguments.

 

[barbos]

There are people in the U.S. that prefer authoritarianism over democracy. That's why we vote. Putin is doing a good job of orchestrating the situation. Without him it's a nothingburger.

I prefer democracy too. But Putin has little choice. West is hell bent on overthrowing him. And he remembers Kaddafi and .... Erdoğan.

 

[Copernicus]

The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO. There is no need to provide militray supoort to Ukraine, another esource sink hole that gives us no benefit.

Biden campaigned on getting us out of conflict and took the political hit on withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Now he is potentialy putting us in another no win situation. Does anyone think given Afghanistan and Iraq Europeans are going to fight Russia in any capacity?

NATO was creqted to defend wetrn Europe from Russian aggression, not to go to war to try and crease a democracy.

You also have to commander collusion between China and Russia to create simultaneous military pressure over Ukraine and Taiwan. Add the potential for NK to take advantage and get agressive.

A potential two front conflict against well armed adversaries.

We could easily walk into a conflict that escalates out of control.

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union. Right now, Belarus is pretty much controlled by Russia and may well be absorbed in the future. What is happening in Ukraine is destabilizing Europe. That is not instigated by the US or NATO, which poses no realistic threat to Russia except as a safeguard against intimidation and blackmail against its neighbors. Putin is quite clear that the greatest tragedy in his life was the breakup of the Soviet Union, which followed a free and open vote within the Soviet Union about whether its member republics wanted to remain in the union. That was a resounding "no", even within Russia itself.

If we were not to stand firm against Russian aggression in Ukraine, which we have formally pledged to guarantee (along with the UK and Russia), then that would encourage even more aggression elsewhere, likely in the Baltics and Georgia. It would not end with Ukraine any more than Hitler's concessions in Czechoslovakia led him to stop himself from invading neighboring countries. Moreover, the main pro-Kremlin mouthpiece--RT--has just published an article that appears to threaten the right of Sweden and Finland to join NATO, even though they have long had close ties with the alliance. (See Finland & Sweden in NATO would trigger response – Russia). This behavior by Russia is driving countries in eastern Europe closer to NATO and the EU, not further away from it, and it does not justify Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukrainian territory.

 

[barbos]

The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO.

That depends on what is your strategic interests are. If your interest is to keep things the way they are then Ukraine has no interest, but that's not US strategic interest.

 

[barbos]

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union.

Why do you keep repeating this lie?

 

[Copernicus]

Mearsheimer has been addressed over several posts,

No, you did not. You skipped 95% of his arguments.

The video was an interesting distraction, and I addressed the parts of it that I felt relevant to this thread. You chose not to critique my discussion, but just to react negatively to it. If you had something substantive to say in rebuttal to my remarks, you would have said it.

 

[Copernicus]

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union.

Why do you keep repeating this lie?

The 1991 vote is a matter of record, as I've already noted above. If you want to dispute it, then don't just call it a lie. Point out the falsehood and I'll respond.

 

[barbos]

Mearsheimer has been addressed over several posts,

No, you did not. You skipped 95% of his arguments.

The video was an interesting distraction, and I addressed the parts of it that I felt relevant to this thread. You chose not to critique my discussion, but just to react negatively to it. If you had something substantive to say in rebuttal to my remarks, you would have said it.

It was not a distraction at all. I created a thread specifically about that video.
You have not addressed any important points of the video.

 

[barbos]

Steve, Europe itself is threatened by expansion of the Russian Federation to reoccupy countries that had voted overwhelmingly to leave the Russia-dominated Soviet Union.

Why do you keep repeating this lie?

The 1991 vote is a matter of record, as I've already noted above. If you want to dispute it, then don't just call it a lie. Point out the falsehood and I'll respond.

That's not what I called a lie.
Stop distorting my views.
And check your links before posting

 

[laughing dog]

The question is strategic interest. There is none in Ukraine. We have a nuclear deterrent and NATO.

That depends on what is your strategic interests are. If your interest is to keep things the way they are then Ukraine has no interest, but that's not US strategic interest.

Why do you keep repeating that illusion?

 

[Jason Harvestdancer]

Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?

Donetsk is a part of Ukraine, and the current regime that governs it--the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (DPR)--is an unelected self-proclaimed government.

When you say "unelected" do you mean "the US doesn't recognize the election"?

There are many people making the argument "but the vote to secede doesn't count". Yeah, sure, it is just a coincidence that a vote the US doesn't like also doesn't count.

Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?

Requested by whom, the DPR terrorist organization?
Yes.

Yup, standard Russian tactics. Prop up some two-bit movement (or even create it from scratch) then come to the aid of the "legitimate" government.

Oh wow. Sorry, but if the US uses that criticism on any other country it is so absurdly hypocritical that it is hard to know where to start.

Are you honestly taking the stance that imperialism committed by the US is bad, but if done by other countries its okay?

Okay? No. None of my business? Yes. I've explained this twice already, so of course you haven't read it yet. So here goes again.

The job of the US government is the US. It is not Europe, it is not Asia, it is not Africa or South America. In North America, it nos not Canada, Mexico, or any country to the south of the US. The job of the US government is the US. Since I vote and pay taxes in the US, my concern is what the US does. When I start paying taxes to Ukraine or Russia, I'll start caring about those. When Ukraine or Russia starts paying taxes to the US, then the US actually has an actual interest there.

The political obligation and the moral obligation do not intersect, and we are talking about a political response. All we are talking about is a political response. We are not talking about anything other than a political response, so do not pretend that my opposition to a political response indicates any sort of moral stand for or against anything.

 

[barbos]

If Donetsk is a part of Ukraine, then Taiwan is part of China for sure.

 

[barbos]

Pretty funny.

На Украине уволили замминистра после фото помощницы в откровенном платье

Замминистра образования Украины Игорь Гарбарук уволен после того, как его помощница, 27-летняя Кристина Тишкун, опубликовала в соцсети фото в откровенном платье. «Только что замминистра образования Игорь Гарбарук был уволен Кабмином по его заявлению», — сообщила депутат от «Слуги народа» Юлия...

lenta.ru

Deputy minister of education was fired for picture of his assistant.
The assistant is second from the left
better picture and more pictures in the gallery:

"Эскорт, какаяразница": откровенное декольте помощницы замминистра образования наделало шум в сетях

Заместитель министра образования и науки Игорь Гарбарук приехал во Львов с помощницей, одетой в черное платье-миди с глубоким декольте и высоким вырезом на бедре. В минувшую пятницу, 24 декабря, чиновник осматривал работу профтехучилищ, встретился с мэром Андреем Садовым, сообщает ...

gazeta.ua

US taxpayers money are well spent.

 

[Copernicus]

Not much has changed in the last week, but Biden has agreed, at Putin's request, to speak with him again tomorrow (Thursday, Jan. 30). The US will attend talks in Geneva that start on January 10.

The neoconservative American Enterprise Institute has put out an interesting analysis that claims Russia has no intention of attacking Ukraine. It is simply engaging in "hybrid" or "threshold" warfare, which entails the use of military force as leverage to gain concessions. Since the US and other European nations will not send troops to defend Ukraine, nobody disputes that Russia could win a war against Ukraine. With the threat of military invasion behind him, Putin wants to negotiate a new European security framework that expands Russia's sphere of influence. In the process, he has managed to increase Ukraine's sense of national identity, making more Ukrainians want to join NATO when surveyed. NATO's eastern border military capabilities are being bolstered, with an invasion of Ukraine likely to trigger mobilizations. The US military budget just signed by Biden allocates $300 million for military aid to Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 has been put on indefinite hold. Russia may be booted out of SWIFT financial transactions, which means that it will no longer be able to conduct foreign currency exchanges in any convenient way. Other sanctions are also being contemplated.

See: Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine Is Backfiring

Back before the Soviet Union disappeared, Gorbachev made a number of blunders that led to its collapse, even though he was trying to hold it together. The disintegration started in 1988, when the eastern European satellite nations started rebelling and agitating for freedom from Soviet domination. The Baltic states were among the first to agitate for more autonomy or outright secession, but Ukraine held its own referendum for leaving the SU in 1991, which passed overwhelmingly. Gorbachev's biggest error was to assume that the Soviet Union could liberalize without aggressive use of force to bring recalcitrant republics back in line. The reality was that it was 15 republics held together by coercion. Putin can almost certainly win a military victory in Ukraine, but he will have an almost impossible task in holding the occupation. Both the US and Russia faced the same dilemma in Afghanistan, where both countries won the military occupation but could not sustain it.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?

Donetsk is a part of Ukraine, and the current regime that governs it--the so-called Donetsk People's Republic (DPR)--is an unelected self-proclaimed government.

When you say "unelected" do you mean "the US doesn't recognize the election"?

There are many people making the argument "but the vote to secede doesn't count". Yeah, sure, it is just a coincidence that a vote the US doesn't like also doesn't count.

Is it invading Ukraine if Donetsk requests intervention?

Requested by whom, the DPR terrorist organization?
Yes.

Yup, standard Russian tactics. Prop up some two-bit movement (or even create it from scratch) then come to the aid of the "legitimate" government.

Oh wow. Sorry, but if the US uses that criticism on any other country it is so absurdly hypocritical that it is hard to know where to start.

Are you honestly taking the stance that imperialism committed by the US is bad, but if done by other countries its okay?

Okay? No. None of my business? Yes. I've explained this twice already, so of course you haven't read it yet. So here goes again.

The job of the US government is the US. It is not Europe, it is not Asia, it is not Africa or South America. In North America, it nos not Canada, Mexico, or any country to the south of the US. The job of the US government is the US. Since I vote and pay taxes in the US, my concern is what the US does. When I start paying taxes to Ukraine or Russia, I'll start caring about those. When Ukraine or Russia starts paying taxes to the US, then the US actually has an actual interest there.

The political obligation and the moral obligation do not intersect, and we are talking about a political response. All we are talking about is a political response. We are not talking about anything other than a political response, so do not pretend that my opposition to a political response indicates any sort of moral stand for or against anything.

Jason: I understand now. However, this isn't a US foreign policy thread! I'd be happy to join in a new thread on this if you want. And I'd readily agree with many of your critiques on US foreign policy. But not everything revolves around the US. In fact, this might be our biggest issue is assuming that everything revolves around the US! This thread is about Russia threatening (already has) to invade a sovereign country. And whether or the west (which includes the countries in Europe) should band together to stop this imperialism.

And it appears that Putin is backing down somewhat. The gas pipeline is almost operational. And it appears that Putin may favor the pipeline over expansion.

 

[barbos]

However, this isn't a US foreign policy thread!

I have created few such threads. You can hear crickets there. Latest one was merged with this stupid thread and everyone ignored the video I posted.

This thread is about Russia threatening (already has) to invade a sovereign country. And whether or the west (which includes the countries in Europe) should band together to stop this imperialism.

No, this thread is about about american imperialism

But not everything revolves around the US.

Of course, everyone knows everything revolves around Putin. US Media says so.

 

[barbos]

but the entire country of Ukraine did vote overwhelmingly (97%) for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 just before that country collapsed. The vote was overwhelming even in the Donbas region, but only about half or slightly more favored separation in Crimea. And that was a vote carried out by the Soviet Union itself. (See

1991 Soviet Union referendum)

Do you have some kind of impediment or something?
I told you to read your damn links before posting them.
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!
They voted to stay in that referendum!


The one which they voted to leave was held after August 1991 putsch.

Stop posting garbage and start reading your own links.