Since it has been awhile, perhaps someone new looking in who thinks that the crucifixion took place on the 6th day of the week and who thinks that Matthew 12:40 is using commom idiomatic language, may know of some writing.
steve_bnk,
re: "Given a room full of women with fraternal twin pregnancies the probability of the sex on the next birth is 50%."
Agreed.
re: " Not the same question as what is the probability of one of the pair being a girl in the womb."
Agreed. But I'm afraid I don't see the point...
steve_bnk,
re: "Given equal male-female probabilitiesfor each embryo over many births sequentially as the babies aredelivered the probability of the next baby being male or female hasto be 50 percent."
Which is exactly the same as the coin toss. Each coin has a 50% chance of coming up...
Alcoholic Actuary,
re: "That's nothing like what anyone is saying. The probability of 'at least one girl' in a set of fraternal twins is .75. The probability of no girl is .25. The probability of 'at least one boy' in a set of fraternal twins is also .75. The probability of no boy is .25. "...
mAgeth,
re: "And my name is mAgeth."
Sorry for the typo.
re: "Actually, it's not. It's 2 in 3..."
What is the chance expressed as a percentage that the woman is going to leave the hospital with at least 1 girl?
Alcoholic Actuary,
re: "(Or to say it differently, there are only 3 outcomes..."
I assume by that, you mean only 3 outcomes where a girl is involved.
re: "...but they are not all equally likely)"
Why not?
Megeth,
re: "Alternatively, if interpreted as 'at least one..."
Yes, that is the correct interpretation.
re: "...then the probability that at least one twin is a girl would be two in three."
Actually, it's 3 in 4 or 75 percent.
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