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The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

^According to the article, last year China installed 300GW of solar and wind and 1GW of nuclear. Divide 300 by five to establish the equivalent capacity, and China has produced 60 times more capacity in solar and wind than nuclear in one year.
Yeah. But what does "installed" mean, and where do those numbers come from (and why should we believe them)?

According to Wikipedia, as of 31st December 2024:
There are 27 additional [nuclear] plants under construction with a total power of 32.31 GW

32.31 is a touch more than 1.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China
 
^Some numbers are available here:

China Energy Transition Review 2025

Here is one highlight:

In the 12 months to June 2025, wind and solar (2,073 TWh) generated more electricity than all other clean sources (nuclear, hydro and bioenergy) combined (1,936 TWh). Just four years ago, wind and solar generated half as much electricity as other clean sources combined.

The trend in China is definitely toward solar.
 
^Some numbers are available here:

China Energy Transition Review 2025

Here is one highlight:

In the 12 months to June 2025, wind and solar (2,073 TWh) generated more electricity than all other clean sources (nuclear, hydro and bioenergy) combined (1,936 TWh). Just four years ago, wind and solar generated half as much electricity as other clean sources combined.

The trend in China is definitely toward solar.
It still doesn't work at night.
 
^China is making progress on concentrated solar, which provides 24/7 power supply:

Nation sees rise in scale of concentrated solar power

From the article:

CSP technology, which uses mirrors to concentrate solar energy to heat a fluid that drives a turbine, has the unique advantage of built-in thermal energy storage. This allows it to generate dispatchable power, providing grid stability by supplying electricity even when the sun is not shining, a feature essential for national energy security.

According to Yang Kun, executive vice-chairman of the council, China's installed CSP capacity reached 1.57 million kilowatts across 21 power stations by the end of September, placing it third globally.

Crucially, the country currently has 30 CSP projects under construction, representing a massive 3.10 million kW of capacity. This makes China the primary contributor to new CSP installations worldwide, he said.
 
China is gong renewable in a big way because it is an authoritarian system

The CCP leadership is not encumbered by a divisive legislature and there is no political dissent allowed.

They p;an out years ahead.



The Five-Year Plans (Chinese: 五年计划; pinyin: Wǔnián Jìhuà) are a series of social and economic development initiatives issued by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since 1953 in the People's Republic of China. Since 1949, the CCP has shaped the Chinese economy through the plenums of its Central Committee and national party congresses. The plenums follow a customary pattern of themes; since the 14th Party Congress (1992–1997), the fifth plenum has evaluated the current five-year plan and outlined the next five-year plan.[1]

We could learn something from China.
 
...Also,for some years there have been ideas about using 'Thorium' reactors, being cleaner fuel than conventional nuclear fuels in abundance The Chinese have apparently built the first of its kind, fairly recently. I haven't been following it up, but I'm curious as to how they've got on. Does it really work?
 
^China is making progress on concentrated solar, which provides 24/7 power supply:

Nation sees rise in scale of concentrated solar power

From the article:

CSP technology, which uses mirrors to concentrate solar energy to heat a fluid that drives a turbine, has the unique advantage of built-in thermal energy storage. This allows it to generate dispatchable power, providing grid stability by supplying electricity even when the sun is not shining, a feature essential for national energy security.

According to Yang Kun, executive vice-chairman of the council, China's installed CSP capacity reached 1.57 million kilowatts across 21 power stations by the end of September, placing it third globally.

Crucially, the country currently has 30 CSP projects under construction, representing a massive 3.10 million kW of capacity. This makes China the primary contributor to new CSP installations worldwide, he said.
A million kW is a GW. 1.57GW is the same output as one or two large coal or nuclear facilities; 3.1GW is two or maybe three such facilities.

Many CSP programs worldwide have been abandoned, as they are very expensive to build and run, have frequent and long maintenance shutdowns, and are environmentally damaging - they are very effective at incinerating large numbers of birds.

California is abandoning their CSP plant:
In January 2025, the plant’s co-owner NRG Energy announced it was unwinding power purchase agreements with Pacific Gas & Electric Company and Southern California Edison and, subject to regulatory approval, would begin closing the plant in early 2026, readying the site to potentially be repurposed for a different type of solar energy.

The facility, though cost effective at the time it was planned (2009), is now more expensive to run than solar photovoltaic technology, which has decreased in price much more rapidly than was expected in the 15 years since Ivanpah's construction began.

The power companies purchasing electricity from Ivanpah said that they expect the closure will save their ratepayers money.

NRG declined to say how much of the $1.6bn loans guaranteed by the government remained unpaid as of 2025.
(wikipedia)

Spain has switched to parabolic concentrators, rather than having a single heat reservoir. This solves some of the engineering and environmental issues, but at the cost of only working during daytime - the Spanish facility uses fossil gas to generate electricity at night, so it's not so much a solar power plant as it is a gas power plant with solar boost - even in ideal sites, Solucar only has about a 24% solar capacity factor, so 76% of the time, it's a gas powered generator, or isn't generating electricity at all.

The Solnova Solar Power Station is a large CSP power station made up of five separate units of 50 MW each. With the commissioning of the third 50 MW unit, the Solnova-IV in August 2010, the power station ranks as one of the largest CSP power stations in the world.

Solnova-I, Solnova-III, and Solnova-IV were commissioned in mid-2010 and are all rated at 50 MWe in installed capacity each. All five plants are built, owned and operated by Abengoa Solar, a Spanish solar power company.

All five power stations, the three commissioned and two under development, will be utilizing parabolic troughs, a technology to use concentrated solar power. The three commissioned power stations are also equipped to support natural gas as its secondary fuel source for power generation.

Note that at 150MW (0.15GW) this is "one of the largest CSP power stations in the world". You would need ten of them to equal the output from one large coal or nuclear facility.
 
Batteries need to improve their storage cost by implausibly large amounts if they are to allow a 24x7 electricity supply generated from wind and solar.

They are useful for grid stability, but not for power storage over many hours or days.

The only practical and cost effective mass storage technology we currently have is pumped storage hydro, and there's simply not enough suitable sites for that technology to make much more of a contribution than they already do.

I have posted extensively in this very thread about the inability of battery storage to solve the intermittency problem of wind and solar power.
 
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Wow. So you only need about twenty of them, plus four GW of solar and/or wind generation capacity, and you could replace one large coal or nuclear facility.

Until your battery catches fire, of course.

And there's no mention of how much CO2 is emitted by the manufacturing process, nor of any other environmental issues they cause.

This was ten years ago. Do you think the situation has likely improved since then, or gotten worse with the massive increase in demand for high capacity batteries? My guess is that China learned their lesson from that article, and made sure to ban journalists from the area.

If nothing else, the Chinese are getting very good at propaganda.
 
The solution is reduce energy demand and live within a sustainable energy budget.

Which of course will never happen by choice.

China launched its first railway project integrating renewable energy at the end of September. The 303-kilometre-long demonstration route is part of the Baoshen Railway, a freight line for very heavy cargo which runs just over 1,000 km from Shenmu in Shaanxi province to Baotou in Inner Mongolia.Oct 9, 2025

And we have Trump and the climate deniers....
 
...Also,for some years there have been ideas about using 'Thorium' reactors, being cleaner fuel than conventional nuclear fuels in abundance The Chinese have apparently built the first of its kind, fairly recently. I haven't been following it up, but I'm curious as to how they've got on. Does it really work?
Yes, it works. India is investing heaviliy in it to avoid reliance on imported uranium or plutonium.

It's doubtful that thorium is "cleaner" than traditional fission, which is already by far the cleanest industrial process in history, and is the only industry that completely manages its entire waste stream indefinitely.
 
The solution is reduce energy demand and live within a sustainable energy budget.
Fuck that.

Increasing energy demand is so closely linked to civilisation that one can measure the latter solely by reference to the former. A Tanzanian subsistence farmer lives within a sustainable energy budget. No urban American ever could - without energy, a modern city is ininhabitable.

Energy poverty is no more desirable than financial poverty - it is strictly for monks and other religious kooks.

And if energy poverty were imposed on the Earth today, it would entail the deaths of billions.

The solution is nuclear fission. We can have as much energy as we want, whenever we want it, at roughly the same dollar cost we currently pay, and with zero carbon dioxide emissions, with safety and health levels that are as good as we have ever been able to achieve, and whose waste products are so small in volume that we have seventy years worth of them in storage where it has never hurt anyone, and has done about the same environmental damage as laying a concrete driveway. Oh, and the "waste" can be used as fuel in more modern reactor designs.

A profligate American electricity user, if his energy were supplied from fast spectrum fission reactors, would produce in his entire lifetime a volume of waste the size of three m&m's. If we use the highly inefficient thermal spectrum reactors that are the current technology, that waste volume "balloons" to the volume of a can of Coke.

All the problems with nuclear power that were panicked over in the 1960s and '70s have turned out to be nonexistent - pure fear, no reality. The only remaining cards that the anti-nuclear lobby have to play are "It's unpopular" and "It's expensive", and both are entirly due to their concerted effort to make it so.

There is no technical reason why nuclear fission should be either. If it were invented today for the first time, a new technology that generates carbon-free electricity, 24x7, with minuscule use of materials and minuscle waste products, we would be calling it the miracle solution to climate change.

Lots of people are hanging out for fusion power, as that "miracle solution" - but literally the ONLY thing fusion power has going for it, that fission doesn't, is that fusion power doesn't exist, so we can imagine any problems it may create not to exist either.
 
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