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Yet another war, this time with Iran

Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
 
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
That isn't the goal. The goal is to try and goad them into firing on one of our ships
Click to expand...
That is a reasonable conjecture, but it is neither the stated goal nor does the US need a reason to break a “ceasefire”.
 
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
What leverage do you think this creates ? If this inconveniences China by a sufficient margin, they can stem the access to rare earth minerals.
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
Are you serious or did something come out wrong.

Taking the Mediterranean shoots one out the Red Sea. Yes, all bodies of water look alike, but the Red Sea isn't connected to the Strait of Hormuz. I'm also uncertain whether the big ass tankers can fit in the Suez.

That also doesn't impact urea, gas, oil coming from the sources adjacent to the Persian Gulf which gets shipped along the gulf because... that is the body of water next to it.
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
Have you confused the Bab El Mandeb with the Strait of Hormuz?
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
Best case scenario, 28% of the oil that went through the Strait of Hormuz can get out through the Red Sea. That is max capacity of the pipelines/loading terminals.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
Are you serious or did something come out wrong.

Taking the Mediterranean shoots one out the Red Sea. Yes, all bodies of water look alike, but the Red Sea isn't connected to the Strait of Hormuz. I'm also uncertain whether the big ass tankers can fit in the Suez.

That also doesn't impact urea, gas, oil coming from the sources adjacent to the Persian Gulf which gets shipped along the gulf because... that is the body of water next to it.
Click to expand...


From the article:
Attached is a map of tanker ships worldwide from Marinetraffic.com. A steady stream of tankers has formed, sailing from the Indian Ocean, around the southern tip of Africa, and into the oil-producing South American/US Gulf ports. Simply put, world markets are finding their oil elsewhere, including the United States. As Bloomberg's graph showed yesterday, for the first time in history, US oil exports are approaching 5 million barrels per day.

This shift shows Iran's strategy to block the Strait of Hormuz is becoming domestically damaging. Even when Iran reopens the Strait, its former clients will likely have found new partnerships with a lower risk of disruption. Its current actions have a limited window of maximum effectiveness, after which their effectiveness gradually decreases each day as demand to use the Strait diminishes.

World markets run on supply and demand. If the supply is disrupted in one region, demand leads buyers to seek the product elsewhere. Reliability is a premium in the oil market, even if shipping costs increase as a result (costs would increase regardless if Iran places a toll).
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
You know that the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea are different things, right?

There is no shipping route that can bypass the Strait of Hormuz, it's the only way in and out of the Gulf, which is a cul-de-sac.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
I'm also uncertain whether the big ass tankers can fit in the Suez.
Click to expand...
They can't. Suezmax is bigger than Panamax*, (ca. 200,000DWT vs ca. 120,000DWT) but VLCCs are bigger than Suezmax (200,000 - 320,000DWT), and ULCCs are bigger even than that, (>320,000DWT).

If you want to go via Suez, you are stuck with a using piddly little two hundred thousand tonne ship. But Hormuz is twenty miles wide, so you can more than double that with no difficulty**






*New Panamax; Before 2016, Panamax topped out at ca. 52,000DWT.

**Unless you consider being sunk by either the Iranians or the Americans to be a "difficulty". Which to be fair, Lloyds of London pretty much do.
 
Last edited:
RVonse said:
A steady stream of tankers has formed, sailing from the Indian Ocean, around the southern tip of Africa, and into the oil-producing South American/US Gulf ports. Simply put, world markets are finding their oil elsewhere, including the United States.
Click to expand...
That's simply bullshit. That stream was already there, because VLCCs and ULCCs can't go any other way, being as they are too big to transit Suez, much less Panama.

Someone is assuming that his audience don't know shit about what marine traffic looked like before this pointless and stupid war, and is betting that they won't or can't find out.
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...
Are you serious or did something come out wrong.

Taking the Mediterranean shoots one out the Red Sea. Yes, all bodies of water look alike, but the Red Sea isn't connected to the Strait of Hormuz. I'm also uncertain whether the big ass tankers can fit in the Suez.

That also doesn't impact urea, gas, oil coming from the sources adjacent to the Persian Gulf which gets shipped along the gulf because... that is the body of water next to it.
Click to expand...


From the article:
Attached is a map of tanker ships worldwide from Marinetraffic.com. A steady stream of tankers has formed, sailing from the Indian Ocean, around the southern tip of Africa, and into the oil-producing South American/US Gulf ports. Simply put, world markets are finding their oil elsewhere, including the United States. As Bloomberg's graph showed yesterday, for the first time in history, US oil exports are approaching 5 million barrels per day.

This shift shows Iran's strategy to block the Strait of Hormuz is becoming domestically damaging. Even when Iran reopens the Strait, its former clients will likely have found new partnerships with a lower risk of disruption. Its current actions have a limited window of maximum effectiveness, after which their effectiveness gradually decreases each day as demand to use the Strait diminishes.

World markets run on supply and demand. If the supply is disrupted in one region, demand leads buyers to seek the product elsewhere. Reliability is a premium in the oil market, even if shipping costs increase as a result (costs would increase regardless if Iran places a toll).
Click to expand...

No, they aren't. Sri lanka has been having an issue with supply for weeks now. Korea is reducing driving due to supply issues.There isn't a magical location where 20% of oil is elsewhere.
 
RVonse said:
Jimmy Higgins said:
RVonse said:
laughing dog said:
Politesse said:
laughing dog said:
The USA will blockade the Strait of Hormuz in order to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Does anyone else find that confusing?
Click to expand...
Iran is only blockading enemy ships, their allies are allowed through "for a small fee". We are essentially threatening to copy what they are doing, and cut off access to the Strait altogether. Presumably unless "for a small fee". The difference being that they aren't our waters, so when we do it, it's piracy.
Click to expand...
What is confusing is why that would induce Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
Click to expand...
1) Because Iran will do exactly what China asks them to do. Iran and China are not just allies, Iran is mostly sub servant to China just like the US is sub servant to Zionist Israel.

2) The rest of the world is slowly making other plans for trade other than the Strait of Hormuz. Thus the longer this goes on, the less important is the Strait of Hormuz

I'm not saying I agree what Trump is doing. But I can at least understand the leverage he hopes to gain.
Click to expand...
It amazes me how out of touch with reality your posts are.

People aren't working around the Strait of Hormuz for Urea, Gas, Oil. It isn't that simple!
Click to expand...
They are shipping around the horn of Africa instead of through the Mediterranean. Capitalism always finds a way.
Click to expand...

What the fuck are you talking about? You can’t avoid the straits by going around the Horn of Africa. Capitalism cannot find another way- not for many years if not decades. Sheesh.🙄
 
barbos said:
So when is Trump planning to assassinate Pope?
Click to expand...
Trump's Jesus picture carried a bit more weight in criticism than I would have imagined.

Regardless, I wouldn't expect Trump to bomb the Vatican yet. In fact, most of the people Trump has spoken ill of are still doing just fine.
 
IAE, China is the key player. They’re not exactly an ally of Iran, but they do rely on their oil. Stop their oil, and you risk a serious escalation.

Today Xi issued a serious rebuke to Trump calling the blockade dangerous and irresponsible, and that the world must not revert to the law of the jungle.

TACO let a Chinese vessel through.
 
SLD said:
IAE, China is the key player. They’re not exactly an ally of Iran, but they do rely on their oil. Stop their oil, and you risk a serious escalation.

Today Xi issued a serious rebuke to Trump calling the blockade dangerous and irresponsible, and that the world must not revert to the law of the jungle.

TACO let a Chinese vessel through.
Click to expand...
This is the problem with creating situations you can't possibly defend. China has a ship, you going to stop it, board it, destroy it? While Trump has shown little in the way of diplomatic skill, and his Cabinet is a collection of castrated baboons, the US didn't do anything to the Chinese ship, effectively making the blockade a "blockade". This makes Trump and the US look even weaker.

Trying to save face, and they keep losing it!
 
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