Many people extrapolate obvious events in the present into the future. During the 1950's, when people became aware of the existence of computers, many people called them "electronic brains." They thought that they would develop consciousnesses, and minds of their own. This did not happen. Many people also thought that computers would put a lot of people out of work. This is happening.
During the 1960's many people thought that by now there would be under water cities in the oceans, and colonies on the moon. These are technologically possible. However, they would cost too much to be worthwhile.
Also during the 1960's the economy had been growing fairly steadily since the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt in 1933. Nearly everyone got pay raises every year that beat inflation. Many people thought that this would keep on happening, and that the problem of production had been solved.
Hippies who dropped out during the late 1960's and early 1970's did so with the confidence that if they decided to drop back in later, they would have an easy time getting a good job.
Since the recession of 1974 the U.S. economy has become increasingly competitive, and much less forgiving of mistakes and failures.
During the 1970's I thought the War in Vietnam, the Watergate Scandal, and the stagflation that began with the recession of 1974 would push the United States to the left. Instead, we got the tax revolt, and the presidency of Ronald Reagan.
When Ronald Reagan was elected in 1980 I knew that he could not cut taxes, raise defense spending, and balance the budget without cutting popular domestic spending programs, like he promised to do. Nevertheless, I thought deficits caused by his policies would do the economy more harm than they did. I did not predict the fall of the Soviet Union. I predicted the fall of the United States.
Do I have predictions for the future? Yes. Don't bet on them.
