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2020 Redistricting v Gerrymandering Setback

Jimmy Higgins

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Well, Ohio's population grew, however, despite tax cut after tax cut by the Republicans, the state will be losing a seat, so goodbye to one of the Democrats in the Ho....

Hey... what's that? Gerrymandering is rife in Ohio.
C5C4JG6CMLUCDC4NUUQFOTY6AM.jpg

Is it mathematically possible for redistricting to consolidate one last Democrat district? Non-contiguous District 9 can't get much skinnier to allow Districts 4 and 5 to gerrymander an extra seat. Summit County has already been sliced up every which way to provide gerrymandering bonuses for the Dems. Just look at the mess of 13,14, and 16. I live where the three converge.

So Ohio will be losing a House seat, but without some extraordinary math on a computer, it might be impossible for the GOP not to be the party to lose it, because they had already artificially taken as many of the Democrat seats they possibly could.
 
Are the results I see for the new Congressional apportionment official? Does this twitter have the numbers right?
Six states gained seat(s); seven lost a seat; 37 stayed the same.

Texas +2
Colorado +1
Florida +1
North Carolina +1
Montana +1
Oregon +1


California -1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
New York -1
Ohio -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1

The Census Bureau estimates populations by state every year, including 2019, so the 2020 numbers shouldn't be a big surprise. Yet this new apportionment, if correct, is significantly different from predictions a year ago.

Arizona expected to gain 1, gained zero.
Florida expected to gain 2, gained only 1
Texas expected to gain 3, gained only 2

Alabama expected to lose 1, but didn't
Minnesota expected to lose 1, but didn't
North Carolina expected to stay even, but gained a seat.

(Wikipedia's prediction was slightly different from mine: They expected Rhode Island to lose a seat.)

I wonder if GOP's cheating backfired on them!* By implicitly threatening to use the census to track down illegals, they discouraged reporting in states with high Hispanic populations. And sure enough, Arizona, Texas, Florida — all with high Hispanic populations — each ended up with one fewer seat than expected. Among the other "brownishest" states, NV and NM weren't near threshold. California might have been affected: it was close to staying even.)

* - Unforunately, this may help the GOP to gerrymander. Many of the non-reporting in Texas are LEGAL Hispanics, who will now have over-large districts to dilute their voting power.
 
I caught the tail end of a conversation on this subject this morning. They said California gained population by a greater amount than Montana but Montana gets a new rep and California loses one.

Is this true?
 
So basically... the GOP has gerrymandered the districts so much, that there are no more gerries to mander?
 
Looks like I lost a post here. I noted that Electoral-Vote.com covered this and it is possible that the Dems gain a net +2 (ie Dem's gain one seat overall) out of all of this.
 
Ohio map.png

Looking at the old district map for Ohio is deceiving because dedicated gerrymanderers don't actually care where the lines were drawn last time. They only really care about maps like this one. They will happily redraw ALL the old lines to get their desired outcome. If they have have to crack an urban center that used to be packed, they don't care. If they have to make a single district that stretches the entire length of the Ohio River, they don't care. Don't underestimate the skill of a dedicated partisan redistricter.
 
Looks like I lost a post here. I noted that Electoral-Vote.com covered this and it is possible that the Dems gain a net +2 (ie Dem's gain one seat overall) out of all of this.

They did a nice write-up:

Go visit for a state-by-state discussion
https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2021/Pres/Maps/Apr27.html#item-1

So, with the eight seats where we're willing to hazard a guess, we've got the Republicans with a net of -1, and the Democrats with a net of +1. Or, put another way, that's Democrats +2. If the six mystery seats split evenly, that means the Democrats finish the process actually having gained two seats. If the six mystery seats break 4-2 for the Republicans, then the whole thing ends up as a wash. Either way, Republican control of the House is going to depend on successful campaigning, or on successful gerrymandering. The GOP is not likely to pick up enough seats via population growth/movement to get the job done
 
I caught the tail end of a conversation on this subject this morning. They said California gained population by a greater amount than Montana but Montana gets a new rep and California loses one.

Is this true?

It wouldn't be impossible. House seats are 1 per x people--and since the population of the US has gone up x has also gone up. 2019 figures:

California has 39.51 million, 53 seats
Montana has 1.069 million, 1 seat

Looks like Montana should get a seat.
 
I caught the tail end of a conversation on this subject this morning. They said California gained population by a greater amount than Montana but Montana gets a new rep and California loses one.

Is this true?

It wouldn't be impossible. House seats are 1 per x people--and since the population of the US has gone up x has also gone up. 2019 figures:

California has 39.51 million, 53 seats
Montana has 1.069 million, 1 seat

Looks like Montana should get a seat.

From census.gov.

Screenshot 2021-04-27 at 9.03.23 PM.png
 
I hope the percent increase isn't driving anything. It should be raw numbers.
 
I hope the percent increase isn't driving anything. It should be raw numbers.

The number of congressional districts is fixed at 435. It does not go up with population. If the population of your state rises less than the country at large, you risk losing a seat.
US population rose 7.4% over the last decade, while California's rose 6.1%.
What additionally complicates the issue is that districts/seats each state gets is by necessity an integer. So Montana's population increased 9.6%, but the number of seats increased 100% because you have to go from 1 to 2. They actually use a specific algorithm to allot seats to states.
Georgia increased 10.6% in population, but we didn't get any additional seats, because of the luck of the algorithm.

apportionment-2020-map03.png
Map1_2020.png
 
The algorithm for determining how many seats each state gets in the House of Reps may be off-topic here, but the history seems interesting to me. I'll hide this summary to minimize the hijack.



The basic idea of apportionment is trivial: Representation is proportional to population, and every state gets at least one seat. But the detailed algorithm — in particular the tie-breaking rules — is not a trivial problem. The following summary mentions no less than eight different algorithms that have been proposed.

For example, suppose that states A, B, C have populations of 601k, 600k, 200k respectively.

If the House has 7 seats, it's easy: 3-3-1 ,,, Perfect!
With 8 seats, 4-3-1, 9 seats 4-4-1, 10 seats 4-4-2. All pretty logical. In the 8-seat case, A gets an extra seat even though its population is only a tiny bit bigger than B, but what can you do?

However, what if Congress has set the size at 11 seats? 5-5-1 is the logical apportionment and is the allocation found by both the Hamilton and Jefferson algorithms. But this means the representation of State C falls from 2 seats to 1, when the size of Congress rises from ten (4-4-2) to eleven (5-5-1)! This absurdity is called the "Alabama Paradox." Wikipedia discusses this and other  Apportionment paradox es.

The Hamilton algorithm was passed by the first Congress but Washington vetoed it (his only 1st term veto). Congress then adopted the Jefferson algorithm which was used after the first six censuses. Both these schemes suffer from the Alabama Paradox (as we saw above) but that wasn't a concern then, since the House size had not been preset. (If we wait until after the census to decide how many seats the House will have, we can hand-pick that number and may avoid such problems.)

The Jefferson arithmetic was known to be slightly biased in favor of large states; J.Q. Adams proposed an alternative, biased for small states; Daniel Webster and mathematician James Dean each also provided a plan to a Congressional committee, but Congress plodded along with the Jefferson arithmetic, biased for large states. (Since small states have Senators, biasing the House for large states seems a good idea to me.)

But all this time, the House size was fixed after the census, when the "divisor" (the minimum district population) was set. After 1830, future-President Polk, handy with arithmetic and then Chairman of the House Apportionment Committee, set the divisor so that Georgia, Kentucky and New York would each get an extra seat. These were Jackson states; this ploy eventually helped Polk win the big job!

Jackson's opponents in Congress saw what had happened too late, but after the 1840 census there was a flurry of consternation, Webster's arithmetic was adopted, and the number of seats in the House decreased from 242 to 233.

To stop this partisan wrangling, legislation was passed before the 1850 census to keep the House fixed at 233 seats and adopt Hamilton's algorithm — the arithmetic vetoed by Washington almost 60 years before. This may have solved the naked partisanship but arithmetic paradoxes like the "Alabama paradox" came to light. After the 1880 and 1890 censuses, Congress addressed this problem by hand-picking sizes for the House where the Hamilton and Webster algorithms produced the same result. After the 1900 census, a kluged Hamilton-Webster combined algorithm was used! Finally, after the 1910 census Congress fixed the House size at 433 and adopted Webster's algorithm.

In the early 1920's Congress was so partisan that no re-apportionment was done. The House allocation was still set based on the 1910 census. In 1929 Hoover called a special session of Congress, which fixed the House size at 435 and agreed to Webster's algorithm. In 1940, Congress switched to a Huntington-Hill algorithm which has been used ever since. Mathematicians have since found a Balinski-Young algorithm which avoids some of the flaws of Huntington-Hill, but it seems Congress has had enough of all this arithmetic!

 
View attachment 33191

Looking at the old district map for Ohio is deceiving because dedicated gerrymanderers don't actually care where the lines were drawn last time. They only really care about maps like this one. They will happily redraw ALL the old lines to get their desired outcome. If they have have to crack an urban center that used to be packed, they don't care. If they have to make a single district that stretches the entire length of the Ohio River, they don't care. Don't underestimate the skill of a dedicated partisan redistricter.
The trouble is, they have too much concentrated Democrats in four districts. My District (Akron to Youngstown) would be the one they might try to carve (whitest remaining district), but it'll be hard, because in order to dilute the Democrat vote, that has to shift to adjacent districts, and cascades. And they already have a tenuous setup with the noncontiguous district running from Toledo to Cleveland (with a gap in between). Districts 4, 7, 14 are at risk with any modifications.
 
I caught the tail end of a conversation on this subject this morning. They said California gained population by a greater amount than Montana but Montana gets a new rep and California loses one.

Is this true?

Yes. CA gained a whopping 2.28 million since the 2010 census but lost a seat.
Montana gained just 65,000 but gained a seat.

HOWEVER, Montana increased its population by 9.6%, while California grew only 6.1%.
The U.S. population increased by 7.34% over the decade, so you can see Montana gained ground, while Calif lost ground.
The population of CA declined from 52.59 average districts (and 53 seats) in 2010 to 52.00 (52 seats) in 2020; Montana increased from 1.40 (1 seat) to 1.43 (2 seats). As seen, CA's 52 seats are exactly what they "deserved."

Using that arithmetic, the unfair winners were two small states: MT (deserved 1.43 but got 2) and RI (deserved 1.44 but got 2). Their victims were two large states: NY (deserved 26.57 but only got 26) and Ohio (deserved 15.52 but only got 15).

Obviously an arithmetic mean "error" could be reduced by giving MT's and RI's extra seats to NY and OH, but that's not how the  Hamilton-Hill method works: it is optimizing based on a geometric mean.
 
I read Minnesota kept the status quo by a few hundred people, New York lost a seat by a few hundred people.

And then we can discuss how Trump's attempts to undercount particular minorities might have cost the GOP three seats (TX, FL, AZ).
 
Well, Ohio's population grew, however, despite tax cut after tax cut by the Republicans, the state will be losing a seat, so goodbye to one of the Democrats in the Ho....

Hey... what's that? Gerrymandering is rife in Ohio.
View attachment 33177

Is it mathematically possible for redistricting to consolidate one last Democrat district? Non-contiguous District 9 can't get much skinnier to allow Districts 4 and 5 to gerrymander an extra seat. Summit County has already been sliced up every which way to provide gerrymandering bonuses for the Dems. Just look at the mess of 13,14, and 16. I live where the three converge.

So Ohio will be losing a House seat, but without some extraordinary math on a computer, it might be impossible for the GOP not to be the party to lose it, because they had already artificially taken as many of the Democrat seats they possibly could.

Holy shit that fucking map tho...
 
I've been looking at the state populations in the 2020 census and am slightly flabbergasted! (Google doesn't present me with actual totals that I could find, but census estimates for 2019 (and prior years) are available as is the Delta for P2020 - P2019. I submit the deduced 2020 pops to Hamilton-Hill, and get the published seat counts.)

From 2015 to 2016, Texas' population rose 1.6%; this was followed by annual rises of 1.4%, 1.4%, 1.1%. But from 2019 to 2020 the rise was just 0.5%. Did 150,000 Texans go missing? Were the census' estimates for 2015-2019 way off?

New York's population is even more baffling. It was 19.38 million in the 2010 census, then 19.40 (2010 estimate). 19.50, 19.57, 19.62, 19.65, 19.65, 19.63, 19.59, 19.53, and 19.45 million in the 2019 estimate. NY's population seems to be almost constant. But for the 2020 census? 20.20 million!

Texas' shortfall, if that's what it is, exceeds Texan Covid deaths, so that's not the explanation. And New York had many Covid deaths, but 750,000 more residents than "expected"! What happened?

Perhaps big mismatches from the Census estimates the year before a census and the census result are normal. (This hypothesis could be easily checked but — like most government websites — the census.gov website is too sadistic and tedious to make grabbing its data any fun.)

Perhaps Covid deaths did play at least a small role. Families are supposed to report totals without considering deaths in 2020, but surely there were errors.

Hispanics, even if legally resident, may have feared ICE and failed to be counted. This might have affected the count in Texas more than in California (also with high Hispanic numbers) simply because red-neck R-types in Texas would have provoked more fear than humane, mostly D census workers in California.
 
Holy shit that fucking map tho...

GovTrack maps are good. The more you zoom, the more holy shit it gets. Akron/Cuyahoga Falls is a hoot. In some spots, you'd have to turn sideways to stay in the district. I'm lucky. I'm in one of the fingers where the 16th looks like it's hitchhiking.

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/OH/16

I think Ohio's new redistricting rules are in effect this go around where Dems have some input into how things are drawn up. What comes of it remains to be seen.
 
Ohio's gerrymandering doesn't even make it into the top ten, according to https://www.statista.com/chart/21313/most-gerrymandered-districts-us/
Ohio was a purple state, yet 4 Dems and 12 Reps in the House?
Here is District Nine which consolidates Democrats in Toledo and Cleveland in order to make it possible for Districts 4 and 5 to be comfortably red.
lossless-page1-1920px-Ohio_US_Congressional_District_9_%28since_2013%29.tif.png

You'll notice it isn't contiguous (not even county wise). It is almost non-contiguous in two other locations! Famously, Joe the Plumber ran for this district back when he was a thing for 10 minutes. He got over 60,000 Red Hats to be to vote for him.

District 11 is better, but not much, connecting poorer black communities together in East Cleveland and Akron.
lossless-page1-1920px-Ohio_US_Congressional_District_11_%28since_2013%29.tif.png

It is hard to tell, but they are consolidating very specific regions to pluck out 50-50 territory to help out red district 14.

I won't argue there aren't worse situations of gerrymandering, but Ohio is so gerrymandered, the GOP might end up losing a seat because they can't make the Dems lose anymore seats.
 

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