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2023 House vote for speaker
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Jimmy Higgins
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Might end up being less interesting than hoped for. McCarthy has been handing out concessions to Republican House members like they were penny candy.
218 is the magic number. It'll be hard for the Dems to win this, but easier than it should have been. The winner currently needs a majority of the seated members. The rules can be changed allowing for a mere plurality, but that would be dangerous, especially if the "Freedom" Caucus protests that maneuver, providing the Democrats an ability to win a plurality vote. These people love shooting themselves in the foot, but I just don't see this going that far. I ponder if Biggs will tell the caucus to support McCarthy.
218 is the magic number. It'll be hard for the Dems to win this, but easier than it should have been. The winner currently needs a majority of the seated members. The rules can be changed allowing for a mere plurality, but that would be dangerous, especially if the "Freedom" Caucus protests that maneuver, providing the Democrats an ability to win a plurality vote. These people love shooting themselves in the foot, but I just don't see this going that far. I ponder if Biggs will tell the caucus to support McCarthy.
blastula
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They're going in alphabetical order. All McCarthy or Jeffries, till Biggs got his first vote from... Biggs. Then Boebert voted for Jim Jordan. Then Jim Banks got a vote. Currently 4 Republican votes against McCarthy, still in Cs. Can't afford any more defectors.
Jimmy Higgins
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Appears the House will not have a House Speaker that won the initial vote in about 100 years... unless five Republicans vote for the Dem. Thinking the chances of that are relatively small.
So far Jim Jordan has received two votes and Jim Banks one. Neither was nominated, which leads me to wonder what the point was of the prelude during which Biggs, Jeffries, and McCarthy were nominated...
Jimmy Higgins
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Official people as per the party line. Pondering whether Jordan eeks this out. Has a marathon to get there. If not McCarthy, the question becomes who? Who else would have a majority support of the GOP, forget a near unanimous one.
There is one Democrat missing (he died), so there are 222 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the chamber. We're not quite half done and there are 11 votes for third candidates. This means that if all the Democrats vote for Jeffries and all the rest of the Republicans vote for McCarthy Jeffries will have 212 votes and McCarthy will have 211....
Jimmy Higgins
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The Democrat seems assured to win the plurality of the first vote. That and a $5 bill will get Rep. Jeffries a coffee at Starbucks, but it is still quite something to behold, the dysfunction of the GOP is becoming historic.
Another Jordan vote.
If on the second round those who voted for third candiates simply vote "present" and nothing else changes, I believe Jeffries becomes speaker (one just needs the majority of those present *and voting*...)
If on the second round those who voted for third candiates simply vote "present" and nothing else changes, I believe Jeffries becomes speaker (one just needs the majority of those present *and voting*...)
Jimmy Higgins
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McCarthy has been fighting hard to peel away voters for the Speaker position. There are 19 GOP votes for other people, he can afford only 4. The chasm is growing.
Another way to look at this is that McCarthy is right-winger, a very partisan right-winger. And his speakership might be prevented by the alt-right of the GOP. But when we say alt-right, we means about 10 to 15% of the GOP. Again showing how the tyranny of the minority works. McCarthy needs 75% of so of the lost GOP voters to be one ballot protest votes.
Another way to look at this is that McCarthy is right-winger, a very partisan right-winger. And his speakership might be prevented by the alt-right of the GOP. But when we say alt-right, we means about 10 to 15% of the GOP. Again showing how the tyranny of the minority works. McCarthy needs 75% of so of the lost GOP voters to be one ballot protest votes.
crazyfingers
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Does it matter which member of the sedition caucus becomes speaker? The house is going to be a hard right train wreck for at least two years regardless.
Jimmy Higgins
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They want compromise, somewhere between hyper-partisan and rabidly-partisan.
The next question is does Biggs, et al... have caucuses that'll follow his direction? IE, for the unity of the party's sake... vote for McCarthy? Or if Biggs drops it, do they just find someone else.
The next question is does Biggs, et al... have caucuses that'll follow his direction? IE, for the unity of the party's sake... vote for McCarthy? Or if Biggs drops it, do they just find someone else.
Jimmy Higgins
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CNN has it flipped. Jeffries won the first vote, just only a plurality.
On the GOP side, the question for the 19 voters is "You for realz?" McCarthy has little else to give at this point. I'm really oblivious as to how this goes if they are "for realz". Jim Jordan (*-OH) is somewhat the long in the tooth House member that is alt-right, being elected in 2006. So he'd seemingly have the seniority. Biggs (*-AZ) has been in the house a decade less than Jordan (2016). So my money would be on Jordan.
So the question would be, how fucked up would a Jordan speakership be? I can't imagine much worse than McCarthy. Both assholes voted to fuck over the 2020 election.
On the GOP side, the question for the 19 voters is "You for realz?" McCarthy has little else to give at this point. I'm really oblivious as to how this goes if they are "for realz". Jim Jordan (*-OH) is somewhat the long in the tooth House member that is alt-right, being elected in 2006. So he'd seemingly have the seniority. Biggs (*-AZ) has been in the house a decade less than Jordan (2016). So my money would be on Jordan.
So the question would be, how fucked up would a Jordan speakership be? I can't imagine much worse than McCarthy. Both assholes voted to fuck over the 2020 election.