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Black Crime Rate

JonA

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Do black Americans commit disproportionately more crimes than white Americans (compared to representation in overall population)?

Folks wanted a thread on this, so there it is.

Have fun. Pouring another drink.
 
We have multiple lines of data that demonstrate that black Americans commit disproportionately more violent crime than other Americans. The focus here is only on violent crime, as the offence rate for other types of crimes isn't necessary higher.

First, we start with victimization surveys. These are surveys of a random sample of people that asks them if they were victims of a crime during the previous year and, if so, it asks for details. One such detail they are asked is what the perceived race of the victim was.

The most recent data I could find for this info was 2008 (as apparently the BJS stopped publishing this part of the data after 2008).

In 2008, for single offender victimizations, crimes of violence, there were 3,652,340 offenses. 58.4% were reported as done by a white offender (which would include Hispanic) while 22.8% were reported as done by a black offender.

Table 40 http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cvus08.pdf

In 2010 (best data I could find), the percent of the population in 2010 that was African American was 12.2 %

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

So black offenders are over represented by 1.86x in crime victimization surveys of violent crime.

The gap jumps up even more if we focus only on the most serious violent crimes, those that were actually completed rather than just threatened or attempted, to 28.3%, which is a 2.32x over representation in proportion to their size of the US population.

Next, we can look at homicide rates by race of offender, which was exluded from the above data because it is a survey of victims that are still alive. Those who are murdered obviously can not respond to a survey.

In 2013, we have 47.1% of all homicides with single victim/single offender being reported has having been committed by someone with a race of black or African American. This represents a 3.86x over representation in comparison to the size of the population.

https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/u...f_vicitm_by_race_and_sex_of_offender_2013.xls

This data is also consistent with other forms of data. For example, the number one cause of death for black men aged 15-34? Murder, and not by cops.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, homicide was indeed the No. 1 killer of black men between the ages of 15 and 34 in 2011, the most recent year with statistics available.

Compared to other ethnicities, the numbers really stand out. Forty percent of African-American males 15-34 who died were murdered, according to the CDC, compared to just 3.8 percent of white males who died. Overall, 14 percent of all men 15-34 who died in 2011 were murdered.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfac...hecking-claims-about-race-after-ferguson-sho/

It is also consistent with the race of victims for the other violent crimes, with 44.2% more blacks reporting being victims of serious violent crimes than whites in 2014. This is what we would expect if blacks were indeed committing disproportionately more crime as the victims are most likely to live near the offenders, as most such crimes are crimes of proximity. African Americans tend to live in neighborhoods with other African Americans.

http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cv14.pdf

One final line of data I will post, rates of domestic violence.

Overall, African Americans were victimized by intimate partners a significantly higher rates than persons of any other race between 1993 and 1998. Black females experienced intimate partner violence at a rate 35% higher than that of white females, and about 2.2 times the rate of women of other races. Black males experienced intimate partner violence at a rate about 62% higher than that of white males and about 2.5 times the rate of men of other races.

http://www.americanbar.org/groups/d...ces/statistics/Race_Ethnicity_Statisitcs.html

By the way, only 4.6% of blacks have a white partner, so the disparity is almost entirely from partners of the same race.

We could also talk about arrest rates and conviction rates for these crimes by race, but that isn't really necessary as the data above supports the conclusion well enough and that data will be argued away as being due to discrimination (although I believe it supports the argument as it is exceedingly unlikely that _the entire difference_ can be explained away strictly by discrimination. Some of it certainly can be, but that doesn't mean all of the disparity is explainable by it).
 
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How does this data breakdown socioeconomically across races? - Because I suspect a correlation.
 
How does this data breakdown socioeconomically across races? - Because I suspect a correlation.

You are definitely right about that. The highest violent crime areas tend to be poor, inner city neighborhoods where minorities tend to be prevalent.

Can the entire violent crime disparity difference by race be explained by socioeconomic status? I'm not sure about that. It is a very controversial topic without really good data to be able to conclude one way or another. It is difficult enough as it is to pin down precisely what the violent crime disparity difference by race even is. I am convinced, however, that there is a disparity based on multiple lines of evidence, but am unsure on precisely how large that disparity is.

Someone else is welcome to post some data about SES and crime if they like.
 
I think that if Blacks just name their kids Chad and Brittany then they will have a lot more calls for job interviews. Then they won't have to do crimes to get money.
 
The stats are probably distorted by the fact that blacks often commit crimes in groups. So, multiple convictions and multiple perps for a single crime.

I've seen references to this, but no statistical analyses.

I do know that here in NYC, NYPD uses social media to identify gangs and gang members, and gang members can be convicted of conspiracy for crimes they weren't even present at.


According to Chris Lawson, a prosecutor in San Diego, three ingredients must be present to bring a conspiracy charge against gang members in his state: knowledge of a gang’s criminality, active participation in the gang, and intent to further the gang’s overall goals. Prosecutors can glean evidence for all of this off social media. "If you go out and represent yourself as a members of the Crip killers, and if shortly after you make threats online, a Crip is killed—even though we don’t know who pulled the trigger—we can hold you legally responsible for conspiracy to commit those murders."

http://www.theverge.com/2014/12/10/7341077/nypd-harlem-crews-social-media-rikers-prison

This is a question that needs to be studied.
 
How does this data breakdown socioeconomically across races? - Because I suspect a correlation.

I suspect a strong correlation here. Unfortunately the nature of his data precludes measuring that.

- - - Updated - - -

How does this data breakdown socioeconomically across races? - Because I suspect a correlation.

You are definitely right about that. The highest violent crime areas tend to be poor, inner city neighborhoods where minorities tend to be prevalent.

Can the entire violent crime disparity difference by race be explained by socioeconomic status? I'm not sure about that. It is a very controversial topic without really good data to be able to conclude one way or another. It is difficult enough as it is to pin down precisely what the violent crime disparity difference by race even is. I am convinced, however, that there is a disparity based on multiple lines of evidence, but am unsure on precisely how large that disparity is.

Someone else is welcome to post some data about SES and crime if they like.

I don't think it's 100% socioeconomic as I think there's a cultural factor involved also--high crime areas encourage crime as an approach to life.

- - - Updated - - -

I think that if Blacks just name their kids Chad and Brittany then they will have a lot more calls for job interviews. Then they won't have to do crimes to get money.

As what, ballot counters? :):)
 
The stats are probably distorted by the fact that blacks often commit crimes in groups. So, multiple convictions and multiple perps for a single crime.

I've seen references to this, but no statistical analyses.

I do know that here in NYC, NYPD uses social media to identify gangs and gang members, and gang members can be convicted of conspiracy for crimes they weren't even present at.

That probably doesn't explain the data posted by Axulus, since those data were based on surveys of victims, who can obviously only identify the people who were present when the crime occurred.

This may explain other statistics, though.
 
Something to ponder:
CQ_DeTiU8AEYlBS.jpg
 
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