You're making irrelevant distinctions. The airlines have a revenue model. Part of the revenue model is they sell some number of excess seats on a given flight knowing there will likely be some no-shows. I would guess they have some algorithm that takes into account the historical distribution of no-shows, the cost of buying back seats from volunteers, the fare someone is willing to pay for the next incremental seat, etc etc, that determines how much they'll overbook a flight. So, for example, maybe it spits out an answer like "sell 4 more tickets than are available, then set the price to $800 and sell up to 2 more". Putting a $2000 fine on an oversold seat will change the calculus. They will sell fewer seats. They will have more empty seats. All other things being equal, they will get less revenue. Since their operating costs will not change, except for perhaps increasing as they pay occasional penalties they will likely attempt to make the lost revenue/higher cost back by charging more for the tickets they do sell. The only thing that would prevent them from doing so is competition. But since all other airlines are in the same boat essentially and will also be looking to recoup lost revenue, they should be able to pass this on to consumers.
Yes, I know all about their revenue model... it is very much like their Risk Management model, whereby the cost of a human life is calculated by the average wrongful death award, and if it costs less to kill people than to fix a deadly flaw, they will kill people every single time and smile the whole way to the bank.
Their revenue model is "what are they going to do about it, miss Thanksgiving dinner with their family that they only can see a couple of times a year?"
A payed-for empty seat is MORE profit than a payed-for full seat... less fuel, less soda, less work for cabin crew, less likelihood of passenger-induced delay.
The amount of revenue of a full flight is identical (well, slightly less) than the amount of revenue for a fully booked flight that people don't actually get on.
There is not one single cent of nonrefundable ticket sales that goes lost. not one penny. If not one penny is lost, then what is it they need to recoup by price increase? Show me the math. I buy 12 apples for $6. The apples cost the store $1, and another $1 in overhead. The store made $4 from this transaction so far. I bring the apples home and eat 2 of them. How much did the store make now? I eat two more. Now how much did they make? I throw the rest of the apples in the garbage. Now how much did the store make?
The only possible argument for utilizing that revenue model falls exclusively in situations where revenue potentially falls off... and that is exclusively with the tickets they sell along with an offer to refund them. That is their choice.. .and they can set the price for refundable seats following that model. The model is completely indefensible when the premise is invalid... which is the case for the vast majority of non-business travelers that are paying for their nonrefundable tickets that represent guaranteed revenue for the airline whether they show up to sit in that seat or not.
"I don't want to pay more" as an argument works for slavery too... if we are to ban slavery, then the price of strawberries will increase... I accept slavery because I don't want to pay more for strawberries.
You support unfair business practices that negatively impact people because you don't want them cheating you even more... but why would they mind cheating you out more if you are going to just let them?