maxparrish
Veteran Member
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2005
- Messages
- 2,262
- Location
- SF Bay Area
- Basic Beliefs
- Libertarian-Conservative, Agnostic.
What makes Venezuela a source of endless amusement (and tragedy) is that unlike most of the under-developed world of statist economics, the agony seems insoluble. The military has been purged and is completely loyal to the Chavesta's, so the usual coup is not an option. The economy's disastrous welfare-state socialism will always have a major stipend in oil money and payoff in enough votes, keeping at the country on endless life support - the economic body is barely alive and in agony, but otherwise brain dead.
The toilet paper is gone, soon to be followed by what remains of the international reserves. Its currency is imploding:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...as-bolivar-weakens/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Moody's view is equally pessimistic:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...still-possible-despite-imf-money-moodys-says/
Is the narco socialist experiment great or what?
The toilet paper is gone, soon to be followed by what remains of the international reserves. Its currency is imploding:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...as-bolivar-weakens/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Russ Dallen, who contributes to a newsletter for investors, and writes about Latin America, writes today that “Venezuela’s situation continues to unravel at increasing speed as the bolivar tumbled 30% over just the last week, while the country’s international reserves simultaneously hit a new 12-year low, closing at $17.5 billion.” He says the weak currency and decline in reserves means the country is “essentially running on fumes.” He writes:
“Venezuela’s reserves have now fallen 21% since the beginning of the year, but more importantly $6.7 billion from their high just 2 months ago – a high that not only included $2.8 billion from mortgaging Citgo, $1.9 billion from the selling of $4 billion of oil receivables from the Dominican Republic, and the transfer of previously unreported China Fonden funds into the reserves.”
Moody's view is equally pessimistic:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingma...still-possible-despite-imf-money-moodys-says/
We believe the sovereign will likely be able to close its 2015 external funding gap. Nevertheless, should oil prices remain at current levels through 2016, the sovereign could run down its external assets, heightening the probability of a default despite the authorities’ strong willingness to meet debt payments…
Total international reserves have fallen steeply in recent months, to $17.9 billion in mid-May, their lowest level since 2003.
Is the narco socialist experiment great or what?
