Clinton vs. Trump: Religion and Education Explain the White Vote

[lpetrich]

Religion And Education Explain The White Vote | FiveThirtyEight

How various sorts of demographics split. From the most pro-Clinton to the most pro-Trump in each category:

Factor	Group	HRC %	Group	HRC %
Religious attendance	Never	71%	Weekly	31%
Education	Post-grad	64%	HS grad or less	35%
Pop. density	Urban	64%	Rural	42%
Region	Northeast	59%	South	41%
Gender	Woman	56%	Man	43%
Age	18-29	56%	65+	47%
Income	30k-50k	51%	50k-75k	46%

Surprisingly, income is a poor predictor. But education and religiosity are the best predictors, and looking at them together reveals a combined effect.

	Never	Sometimes	Weekly
None	52%	34%	23%
Some	66%	39%	18%
Degree	77%	58%	37%

The differences for the equal-influence diagonal can be explained by rural vs. suburban vs. urban.

Author Milo Beckman then considered three theories for the difference between "college whites" and "church whites".

1: Different values

Members of white Christian congregations are more likely than any other racial-religious group to rank personal responsibility above structural factors, such as unequal access to education, in explaining racial disparities in income. And while secular universities rarely purport to give moral teachings to their students, research has found that college education increases tolerance.

2: Different knowledge

The statement “climate change is caused by human activity” is slightly more likely to be affirmed by those with a college degree; the statement “life begins at conception” is more likely to be affirmed by those with regular church attendance.

3: Different bubbles

This looks to be the theory favored by many church whites, or at least the conservative public figures who represent them.

 

[James Brown]

Is it significant that both college-educated and the unchurched are growing segments?