lpetrich
Contributor
Religion And Education Explain The White Vote | FiveThirtyEight
How various sorts of demographics split. From the most pro-Clinton to the most pro-Trump in each category:
Surprisingly, income is a poor predictor. But education and religiosity are the best predictors, and looking at them together reveals a combined effect.
The differences for the equal-influence diagonal can be explained by rural vs. suburban vs. urban.
Author Milo Beckman then considered three theories for the difference between "college whites" and "church whites".
1: Different values
How various sorts of demographics split. From the most pro-Clinton to the most pro-Trump in each category:
Factor | Group | HRC % | Group | HRC % |
Religious attendance | Never | 71% | Weekly | 31% |
Education | Post-grad | 64% | HS grad or less | 35% |
Pop. density | Urban | 64% | Rural | 42% |
Region | Northeast | 59% | South | 41% |
Gender | Woman | 56% | Man | 43% |
Age | 18-29 | 56% | 65+ | 47% |
Income | 30k-50k | 51% | 50k-75k | 46% |
Never | Sometimes | Weekly | |
None | 52% | 34% | 23% |
Some | 66% | 39% | 18% |
Degree | 77% | 58% | 37% |
Author Milo Beckman then considered three theories for the difference between "college whites" and "church whites".
1: Different values
2: Different knowledgeMembers of white Christian congregations are more likely than any other racial-religious group to rank personal responsibility above structural factors, such as unequal access to education, in explaining racial disparities in income. And while secular universities rarely purport to give moral teachings to their students, research has found that college education increases tolerance.
3: Different bubblesThe statement “climate change is caused by human activity” is slightly more likely to be affirmed by those with a college degree; the statement “life begins at conception” is more likely to be affirmed by those with regular church attendance.
This looks to be the theory favored by many church whites, or at least the conservative public figures who represent them.