Marvin Edwards
Veteran Member
The specific causes of specific effects must be reliable in order to create a consistent pattern. For example, I press the "H" key and an "h" appears in my text. But, suppose the effect of pressing the "H" was indeterministic. Suppose that sometimes when I press the "H" I get an "m". Other times I press "H" and a "7" appears.
Let's turn up the indeterminism dial. Now, when I press any key on the keyboard, I get a random letter each no matter which key I press. All I will get is gibberish. My freedom to type my thoughts would be gone.
So, in order to have freedom, we must have control. In order to have control, the results of our actions must be predictable. And, in order for the results of our actions to be predictable, we must have reliable cause and effect.
Freedom requires a deterministic world, a world of reliable cause and effect. Agency requires determinism, or at least a deterministic world.
Don't make the mistake of equating stochastic processes with uniformly random processes. Statistics has clear cause and effect, but it is not deterministic. Statistics is stochastic.
Realistically, your keyboard does have the possibility of random letters in it already. The underlying hardware and software could end up with a bug, it could already have a bug for all you know. But since 99.99999999999999% of the time, any time you hit the "H" key, you're going to see "h" typed out. And that remaining 0.00---1% of the time you'll probably chalk it up to fat fingering the keyboard
Stochastic processes have very clear causes. They have very clear effects. It simply isn't a *single* effect. There are multiple possible effects prior to the event, but ultimately only a single effect will occur.
Consider a bag full of marbles. Before you reach in, you may have a 90% chance of pulling out a red marble, and a 105 chance of pulling out a blue marble. Those chances are real chances. There are two possible effects. But the cause is clearly you sticking your hand in and picking a marble.
After you have chosen a marble, the prior probabilities are no longer relevant. The fact that you had only a 10% chance to select the blue marble that you hold in your hand doesn't alter the fact that you now have a blue marble with 100% certainty.
This gets into some bayesian stuff, which I have mostly forgotten the mechanics of at this point.
I find it simpler to assume a world of perfectly reliable cause and effect. Chaotic or random behavior are problems with prediction, not causation. I assume that quantum events are also problems of prediction, and that the quarks are behaving deterministically, but by their own rules, which we have yet to decipher.
Once we assume that perfectly reliable cause and effect are universal, causal necessity becomes a triviality that can be dismissed. It is like a constant that appears on both sides of every equation, and it can be subtracted from both sides without affecting the result. For example, if causal necessity excuses the thief who stole your wallet, then it also excuses the judge who cuts off his hand.
Universal causal necessity changes nothing. It has no practical implications to any human scenarios. It makes itself irrelevant by its own ubiquity.