Congratulations Iran on your own goal

[Loren Pechtel]

One of many hits in Iran. And it appears that the only injury in Israel wasn't even a Jew.

 

[pood]

I can’t help but wonder if this would be the same result if incompetent and corrupt Russia ever really did decide to fire nukes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I can’t help but wonder if this would be the same result if incompetent and corrupt Russia ever really did decide to fire nukes.

I think Russia's weapons were a lot better as they left the factory. However, what the years have done to them is another matter--they might be in worse shape than Iran's. And there's the little detail that a lot of Russian weapons are in silos. Holes in the ground. What happens when you don't take care of a hole in the ground? Water seeps in. Even if the water doesn't reach the missile the humidity will.

And look at what we see of the ground-launch missiles we have been sending to Ukraine: they come in boxes. Not shipping containers, they stay in their boxes until somebody pushes the button. That's to protect them from the elements--a missile will last a lot longer in a sealed box. However, it's not really practical to put something the size of an ICBM in a sealed box.

Personally, I expect that if Putin were to push the button that the majority of the missiles would fail to kaboom on their targets. I wouldn't want to bet on a 0% success rate but neither would I be shocked at it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Citing Twitter for war related intelligence seems dubious.

One of many hits in Iran. And it appears that the only injury in Israel wasn't even a Jew.

That sounds crass.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Citing Twitter for war related intelligence seems dubious.

It tends to be the source for current events video these days.

One of many hits in Iran. And it appears that the only injury in Israel wasn't even a Jew.

That sounds crass.

The point is they went to all that effort and accomplished basically nothing other than hurting themselves. One girl was hit by debris from a successful intercept.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Citing Twitter for war related intelligence seems dubious.

It tends to be the source for current events video these days.

...and misinformation. It could be true, but it's Twitter. So back up the truck full of road salt.

One of many hits in Iran. And it appears that the only injury in Israel wasn't even a Jew.

That sounds crass.

The point is they went to all that effort and accomplished basically nothing other than hurting themselves. One girl was hit by debris from a successful intercept.

I got the point, it was crass.

 

[Jarhyn]

I can’t help but wonder if this would be the same result if incompetent and corrupt Russia ever really did decide to fire nukes.

I think Russia's weapons were a lot better as they left the factory. However, what the years have done to them is another matter--they might be in worse shape than Iran's. And there's the little detail that a lot of Russian weapons are in silos. Holes in the ground. What happens when you don't take care of a hole in the ground? Water seeps in. Even if the water doesn't reach the missile the humidity will.

And look at what we see of the ground-launch missiles we have been sending to Ukraine: they come in boxes. Not shipping containers, they stay in their boxes until somebody pushes the button. That's to protect them from the elements--a missile will last a lot longer in a sealed box. However, it's not really practical to put something the size of an ICBM in a sealed box.

Personally, I expect that if Putin were to push the button that the majority of the missiles would fail to kaboom on their targets. I wouldn't want to bet on a 0% success rate but neither would I be shocked at it.

I would expect a nontrivial number of failures, and a number of returns promptly to Russian soil. What they do there or on the way is anyone's guess.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I can’t help but wonder if this would be the same result if incompetent and corrupt Russia ever really did decide to fire nukes.

I think Russia's weapons were a lot better as they left the factory. However, what the years have done to them is another matter--they might be in worse shape than Iran's. And there's the little detail that a lot of Russian weapons are in silos. Holes in the ground. What happens when you don't take care of a hole in the ground? Water seeps in. Even if the water doesn't reach the missile the humidity will.

And look at what we see of the ground-launch missiles we have been sending to Ukraine: they come in boxes. Not shipping containers, they stay in their boxes until somebody pushes the button. That's to protect them from the elements--a missile will last a lot longer in a sealed box. However, it's not really practical to put something the size of an ICBM in a sealed box.

Personally, I expect that if Putin were to push the button that the majority of the missiles would fail to kaboom on their targets. I wouldn't want to bet on a 0% success rate but neither would I be shocked at it.

I would expect a nontrivial number of failures, and a number of returns promptly to Russian soil. What they do there or on the way is anyone's guess.

Yeah. Ours have sense enough not to arm without what appears to be a proper booster burn. What's Russian nuclear security like, though? We explicitly gave them the design for the PAL codes on our missiles to hopefully avoid misuse--they did not have anything equivalent. If a booster fails will theirs come down armed?

 

[GenesisNemesis]

Citing Twitter for war related intelligence seems dubious.

One of many hits in Iran. And it appears that the only injury in Israel wasn't even a Jew.

That sounds crass.

About the kind of intelligence I would expect.