Could we have an unprecedented Coral Sea cyclone this winter?

[bilby]

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology have restarted their 3-day cyclone outlook for the Coral Sea, due to an increased risk that the tropical disturbance currently known as Invest 90P, located northeast of the Solomon Islands (4.5°S 162.3°E) at 00:00UTC on 29 June, could strengthen further.

If this system reaches cyclone status, which the BoM estimates it has a 20 to 50% probability of doing, it would be the first tropical cyclone on record for the Coral Sea, outside the usual 'Cyclone season' which runs from 1 November to 30 April.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Monday 29 June 2015
for the period until midnight EST Thursday 2 July 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low has developed to the northeast of the Solomon Islands and is currently moving in a westwards direction. The tropical low is expected to develop further over the next couple of days and could move into the Eastern Region area of responsibility during Tuesday.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. This out of season outlook is being issued due to the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:

Tuesday:Moderate
Wednesday:Moderate
Thursday:Moderate

NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%
The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Cyclones in wintertime are a predicted consequence of global warming; However it is also possible that this is evidence of God's wrath at the SCOTUS marriage equality ruling, and that He has decided to give the devout Kansans and Oklahomans a break, and bash the devout Solomon Islanders instead for a change.

 

[DBT]

It's been incredibly unusual June weather here in North Qld. Never seen it like this. It's more like March, hot and humid and rains every day. It's supposed to be the dry season.

 

[bilby]

It's been incredibly unusual June weather here in North Qld. Never seen it like this. It's more like March, hot and humid and rains every day. It's supposed to be the dry season.

It is unseasonably damp here in SEQ too. Most unusual.

 

[DBT]

It made front page news in the Cairns Post today, with a Weather Bureau spokesperson commenting on how unusual our June weather has been, based on records.

 

[bilby]

It made front page news in the Cairns Post today, with a Weather Bureau spokesperson commenting on how unusual our June weather has been, based on records.

It has been very unusual, that's for sure. Still, the farmers in the Maranoa and Warrego will be happy; they have had some unseasonal rain in some of the worst drought areas, which must have come as a pleasant surprise.

 

[bilby]

The chance of a cyclone has now been upgraded to 'High', meaning the BoM rate the chance of a cyclone developing tomorrow or Thursday above 50%.

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Tuesday 30 June 2015
for the period until midnight EST Friday 3 July 2015.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A tropical low situated to the north of the Solomon Islands is currently moving in a southwestwards direction and could enter the Eastern Region area of responsibility late Tuesday or during Wednesday. The tropical low is expected to develop further and could form into a tropical cyclone near the Solomon Islands on Wednesday or Thursday.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the Queensland coast.

The official tropical cyclone season runs from November 1st to April 30th. This out of season outlook is being issued due to the heightened risk of tropical cyclone development.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Wednesday:High
Thursday:High
Friday:Moderate



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% to 20%
Moderate: 20 to 50% High: Over 50%

The area of coverage for this outlook is the Coral Sea and northern Tasman Sea west of 160E.

Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/

 

[bilby]

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 4:56 am EST on Wednesday 1 July 2015
At 4 am EST Wednesday, Tropical Cyclone Raquel (Category 1) with central
pressure 999 hPa was located to the north of the Solomon Islands near latitude
5.8 south longitude 159.3 east, which is about 410 km north of Honiara.

The cyclone is moving southwest at about 16 kilometres per hour and should
gradually intensify over the next 24 hours as it approaches the Solomon Islands.

The system will remain very far offshore and does not pose a threat to the
Queensland coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 11 am EST today.

Tropical Cyclone Raquel. Now officially the first Southern Hemisphere July cyclone ever recorded.

I blame gay marriage. This NEVER happened until Tony Abbott came out in opposition to it.

 

[DBT]

Of course. It's obvious, it is an example of punishment being metered out by God for the sins of the flesh as a show of support for Tony Abbott, a man of God.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ohio just recently had what was like a winter storm in the summer. Not snow, mind you, however the elements of the storm's development were much more like a winter event than one in the summer.

 

[lpetrich]

I've been baking hot for some days now. It's almost like I'm living in an oven.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I've been baking hot for some days now. It's almost like I'm living in an oven.

Ohio has been the exception to the rules. Last year (or was it two years ago?) we had the record cold winter. This year we had a record cold March (a snow pack for 6 weeks or something ridiculous like that in the winter), record warm May, and this summer has been relatively mild. In Cleveland, only one day getting to 90 degrees or higher. We usually average 16 days of 90+ degrees over the summer, and June and July usually are the hottest months.