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Creeping towards World War Three

Jason Harvestdancer

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The US government has shot down a warplane belonging to the Syrian Air Force. I know that most Americans think it is the right of the US to shoot anyone, anywhere, at any time. But I'm not in that majority. So I will put it in perspective with a mock headline.

Syrian Jet shoots down US Jet over Chicago in self defense

Yep, that's the excuse of the US.

There are three foreign powers with major involvement in Syria, and two of them were invited in by the government of Syria. I'm not one to hold governments in high regard, I regard the difference between a legitimate government and an illegitimate one as the difference between a legitimate and illegitimate turd. But I can still recognize which government is the legitimate one and therefore the one to have the authority to invite other countries to intervene. The Assad government, a real turd, is still the legitimate turd, and has invited Iran and Russia in to help the Syrian government. The US is there without an invitation, even though the US leadership thinks an invitation is not required.

So far it wasn't so bad, as long as the US only acted against insurgent groups. Of course that is supposed to include ISIS, and some people say that ISIS is the US stooge in the area. But this time the US acted in what is unquestionably an act of war. I've had people defend drone strikes as not acts of war, even though they are, as limited strikes. But this was a manned jet shooting down a manned jet.

This prompted a response from one of the countries that has any business there - Russia declared their own control over Syrian air space. They declared that coalition jets can be considered valid targets. This is following an unequivocal act of war by the US. Usually the US plays the game by provoking the other side until they hit first and then claim justification through victim status, but there is no victim status for the US following the shooting of a Syrian warplane. The US hit first. No real or false-flag of "they hit first".

Now all forces are closing in on the Deir el-Zour valley. It is a last stronghold of ISIS, but also a long holdout of a group aligned to the Syrian government. Iran, Russia, and Syria are there to defeat ISIS. Meanwhile Russia also recently confirmed that the U.S. had, indeed, deployed a long-range rocket launcher to the Al-Tanf base in Syria — a region where no ISIS fighters are present. Rather, that area is filled with Iranian-backed militia fighting under the banner of the Syrian Arab Army. Clearly ISIS is not the target of that launcher.

I don't give primary blame to Trump. I think he's not concentrating on foreign policy. He's busy with other stuff while he is basically letting the military run on autopilot as it carries out the last orders given by Obama and Hillary. But he's also not paying enough attention to stop it from getting worse, which he really should considering the stakes. If he really was a Russian puppet as so many tinfoil hat wearers think, this would be a great time for his puppet masters to avert World War Three. If they don't, the Pentagon might start it while Trump isn't paying attention.
 
saw on the evening news trump supporters, asked them how he was doing and literally the response was 'he gets respect from foreign countries' as if this is a new trend for presidents to be respected by foreign folks...
somehow I feel like he is going to get us killed.
 
All presidents think that killing foreigners is the best way to get respect, both at home and overseas. This really isn't unique to Trump. In fact, by not paying enough attention, Trump is actually deviating from the bloodthirsty norm. He's not a Bush or Clinton.
 
All presidents think that killing foreigners is the best way to get respect, both at home and overseas. This really isn't unique to Trump. In fact, by not paying enough attention, Trump is actually deviating from the bloodthirsty norm. He's not a Bush or Clinton.

Good post. I was getting worried about you! But the above reaffirms that you are kinda a closet trump supporter.
 
saw on the evening news trump supporters, asked them how he was doing and literally the response was 'he gets respect from foreign countries' as if this is a new trend for presidents to be respected by foreign folks...
somehow I feel like he is going to get us killed.

People who can't grasp the important difference between 'respect' and 'fear' are a big problem for the world.
 
A state of war already exists there.

We shot down a plane that was attacking our allies.
 
Talk about confirmation bias. Trump is concerned with domestic policy and not paying enough attention to foreign policy, therefore I somehow like him.

It's one of the confounding aspects of Trump is that many of his supporters won't admit publically that they support him. They vote for him, but won't admit it on forums or to pollsters. It's very sad to admit that Trump has far more broad support than what is reported.
 
Talk about confirmation bias. Trump is concerned with domestic policy and not paying enough attention to foreign policy, therefore I somehow like him.

It's one of the confounding aspects of Trump is that many of his supporters won't admit publically that they support him. They vote for him, but won't admit it on forums or to pollsters. It's very sad to admit that Trump has far more broad support than what is reported.

In that case there's no problem since I most assuredly didn't vote for him. Why do you think you and yours won't admit to liking him?

A state of war already exists there.

We shot down a plane that was attacking our allies.

Key question - what were US (and allied) forces doing in Syria in the first place? As I pointed out in the OP, there is an actual established legitimate government in Syria. It's not a nice one, but it is one. And this government has invited in Iran and Russia but not the US, and doesn't want the US in there. Claiming self defense is like if a Syrian jet were to shoot down a US F-18 over Chicago in self-defense.
 
A state of war already exists there.

We shot down a plane that was attacking our allies.

ISIS? The US started this war, caused hundreds of thousands of casualties and possibly trillions in damage and to rehouse migrants and a handful of Jihadis in the West.
The result in Syria is ISIS have a foothold.
 
The US government has shot down a warplane belonging to the Syrian Air Force. I know that most Americans think it is the right of the US to shoot anyone, anywhere, at any time. But I'm not in that majority. So I will put it in perspective with a mock headline.

Syrian Jet shoots down US Jet over Chicago in self defense

Yep, that's the excuse of the US.

There are three foreign powers with major involvement in Syria, and two of them were invited in by the government of Syria. I'm not one to hold governments in high regard, I regard the difference between a legitimate government and an illegitimate one as the difference between a legitimate and illegitimate turd. But I can still recognize which government is the legitimate one and therefore the one to have the authority to invite other countries to intervene. The Assad government, a real turd, is still the legitimate turd, and has invited Iran and Russia in to help the Syrian government. The US is there without an invitation, even though the US leadership thinks an invitation is not required.

So far it wasn't so bad, as long as the US only acted against insurgent groups. Of course that is supposed to include ISIS, and some people say that ISIS is the US stooge in the area. But this time the US acted in what is unquestionably an act of war. I've had people defend drone strikes as not acts of war, even though they are, as limited strikes. But this was a manned jet shooting down a manned jet.

This prompted a response from one of the countries that has any business there - Russia declared their own control over Syrian air space. They declared that coalition jets can be considered valid targets. This is following an unequivocal act of war by the US. Usually the US plays the game by provoking the other side until they hit first and then claim justification through victim status, but there is no victim status for the US following the shooting of a Syrian warplane. The US hit first. No real or false-flag of "they hit first".

Now all forces are closing in on the Deir el-Zour valley. It is a last stronghold of ISIS, but also a long holdout of a group aligned to the Syrian government. Iran, Russia, and Syria are there to defeat ISIS. Meanwhile Russia also recently confirmed that the U.S. had, indeed, deployed a long-range rocket launcher to the Al-Tanf base in Syria — a region where no ISIS fighters are present. Rather, that area is filled with Iranian-backed militia fighting under the banner of the Syrian Arab Army. Clearly ISIS is not the target of that launcher.

I don't give primary blame to Trump. I think he's not concentrating on foreign policy. He's busy with other stuff while he is basically letting the military run on autopilot as it carries out the last orders given by Obama and Hillary. But he's also not paying enough attention to stop it from getting worse, which he really should considering the stakes. If he really was a Russian puppet as so many tinfoil hat wearers think, this would be a great time for his puppet masters to avert World War Three. If they don't, the Pentagon might start it while Trump isn't paying attention.

Peace talks had started after Russia's intervention until the US again propped up it's funded rebels again. The rebels represent a rainbow coalition of diverse groups. If they win then the chaos would be worse.

Technically we can say WWIII exists without defined borders against ISIS and other groups.
 
Claiming self defense is like if a Syrian jet were to shoot down a US F-18 over Chicago in self-defense.

Jason,

I have tried a similar thought experiment with right wing Americans. Never had a response. Its because they know.

Alex.

The problem with that is how would the Syrians get a Jet to Chicago. The Syrians could use Western logic and say it is self-defence but we would call it terrorism. The Syrians I believe are not too dumb as to do such a thing. The Syrian regime separated Church from State and provided education for women. If the US Marionettes take over then it will be come a fractured state of warring factions including those who want a Theocracy.
 
Fucking Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are involved in this mess too.
 
This prompted a response from one of the countries that has any business there - Russia declared their own control over Syrian air space. They declared that coalition jets can be considered valid targets. This is following an unequivocal act of war by the US. Usually the US plays the game by provoking the other side until they hit first and then claim justification through victim status, but there is no victim status for the US following the shooting of a Syrian warplane. The US hit first. No real or false-flag of "they hit first".

Now all forces are closing in on the Deir el-Zour valley. It is a last stronghold of ISIS, but also a long holdout of a group aligned to the Syrian government. Iran, Russia, and Syria are there to defeat ISIS. Meanwhile Russia also recently confirmed that the U.S. had, indeed, deployed a long-range rocket launcher to the Al-Tanf base in Syria — a region where no ISIS fighters are present. Rather, that area is filled with Iranian-backed militia fighting under the banner of the Syrian Arab Army. Clearly ISIS is not the target of that launcher.
It sounds kind of weird to say this, but I'm not so worried about US-Russian military activities spinning out of control, as both parties are quite used to this dance and I think they have a feel for the boundaries about just how far each can go with foreplay...ergo little concern about a WWIII. Additionally, the UN has pretty much been sidelined as it seems that half the world has brought their toys to this fuster cluck. Neither China nor Russia will allow any new western military/policing resolutions to pass regarding Syria/Iraq/ISIS.

However, many of our generals have a real hard-on for Iran and I suspect that many of them still think of them as just another third world hell hole that we can fuck with impunity. And Iran has pretty much made it clear that they are all-in on supporting the Syrian government. Will they gauge US actions/reactions in a mutually safe way? And Russia could work to provide air support to Iranian supported militias to allow them to push forward while the US would be wary of a direct fight. If the US pushes/punishes Iran forces too hard, Iran could easily boast Taliban support in Afghanistan as a asymmetric response.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-and-iran-are-headed-for-a-collision-in-syria-2017-06-21
However, the mission’s limits are unclear, particularly given Iran’s influence over the PMF. Certain pro-Iranian elements may go on to disrupt the U.S.-backed SDF’s anti-ISIS advances in eastern Syria, perhaps under the pretext of (and indeed through) fighting ISIS, and through more pre-emptive land grabs, for example. In fact, factions like Liwa Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas are already operating across the border despite U.S. threats.

PMF Deputy Commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis rejected these threats, affirming that there “has to be a road linking the two countries.”
<snip>
The most confusing actor in all this is the United States itself. Its official mission in Syria remains defeating ISIS. Its aggressive actions against Iran in the eastern desert, such as attacking Iranian-backed forces and deploying long-range artillery, could merely be measures taken by field commanders to protect U.S. forces conducting anti-ISIS missions.
<snip>
f the United States itself has no clear policy, Iran is left testing its limits or acting without any idea of its constraints and therefore dangerously. The administration has not explained how it plans to tackle the inevitable Iranian obstacle on the U.S. advance into eastern Syria, so Iran cannot reliably gauge the scope and intensity of U.S. commitment to this race.
 
It sounds kind of weird to say this, but I'm not so worried about US-Russian military activities spinning out of control, as both parties are quite used to this dance and I think they have a feel for the boundaries about just how far each can go with foreplay...ergo little concern about a WWIII. Additionally, the UN has pretty much been sidelined as it seems that half the world has brought their toys to this fuster cluck. Neither China nor Russia will allow any new western military/policing resolutions to pass regarding Syria/Iraq/ISIS.

However, many of our generals have a real hard-on for Iran and I suspect that many of them still think of them as just another third world hell hole that we can fuck with impunity. And Iran has pretty much made it clear that they are all-in on supporting the Syrian government. Will they gauge US actions/reactions in a mutually safe way? And Russia could work to provide air support to Iranian supported militias to allow them to push forward while the US would be wary of a direct fight. If the US pushes/punishes Iran forces too hard, Iran could easily boast Taliban support in Afghanistan as a asymmetric response.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-and-iran-are-headed-for-a-collision-in-syria-2017-06-21
However, the mission’s limits are unclear, particularly given Iran’s influence over the PMF. Certain pro-Iranian elements may go on to disrupt the U.S.-backed SDF’s anti-ISIS advances in eastern Syria, perhaps under the pretext of (and indeed through) fighting ISIS, and through more pre-emptive land grabs, for example. In fact, factions like Liwa Abu al-Fadl al-Abbas are already operating across the border despite U.S. threats.

PMF Deputy Commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis rejected these threats, affirming that there “has to be a road linking the two countries.”
<snip>
The most confusing actor in all this is the United States itself. Its official mission in Syria remains defeating ISIS. Its aggressive actions against Iran in the eastern desert, such as attacking Iranian-backed forces and deploying long-range artillery, could merely be measures taken by field commanders to protect U.S. forces conducting anti-ISIS missions.
<snip>
f the United States itself has no clear policy, Iran is left testing its limits or acting without any idea of its constraints and therefore dangerously. The administration has not explained how it plans to tackle the inevitable Iranian obstacle on the U.S. advance into eastern Syria, so Iran cannot reliably gauge the scope and intensity of U.S. commitment to this race.

Why would Iran have dealings with the Taliban? Aren't they a sunni group?
 
saw on the evening news trump supporters, asked them how he was doing and literally the response was 'he gets respect from foreign countries' as if this is a new trend for presidents to be respected by foreign folks...
somehow I feel like he is going to get us killed.

People who can't grasp the important difference between 'respect' and 'fear' are a big problem for the world.

It comes from a bully mentality. I went to the same grade school as he did (K-6), and I grew up around the corner from where he grew up. I know some things about him through his former... let's just say people that knew him as a child. He was a bully, and still is.
 
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