Decline of religious affiliation in recent decades

[lpetrich]

Survey Shows Steep Decline in Catholic Church Attendance – Friendly Atheist by Hemant Mehta

Weekly Church Attendance
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]Cath[/td]
[td]Prot[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1955[/td]
[td]75[/td]
[td]42[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1965[/td]
[td]67[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1975[/td]
[td]54[/td]
[td]40[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1985[/td]
[td]50[/td]
[td]40[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1995[/td]
[td]46[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005[/td]
[td]45[/td]
[td]46[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]39[/td]
[td]45[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

By Age
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]21-29[/td]
[td]30-39[/td]
[td]40-49[/td]
[td]50-59[/td]
[td]60+[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1955[/td]
[td]73[/td]
[td]74[/td]
[td]76[/td]
[td]77[/td]
[td]73[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1985[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]57[/td]
[td]64[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]31[/td]
[td]40[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

(lots of speculation as to why...)

Not that Bill Donohue of the Catholic League buys any of that. According to him, the reasons for the drop include a lack of religious education from a young age, college, pop culture, weakening morality, fewer married couples with fewer children, and clergy members who “lowered their expectations” in terms of getting people into the Church doors.

So… a lack of indoctrination, too much education, and not enough pressure on kids.

It’s ignorant thinking like that which also explains the drop.

 

[lpetrich]

A new survey from the Pew Research Center, just released today, notes that 80% of Americans believe in God, but only 56% of Americans agree that God is like the one described in the Bible. Another 33% believe there’s something out there even if they can’t define it. And 10% of people are straight-up atheists.

Pew Survey Shows Young Americans Are Still Marching Away from Religious Myths – Friendly Atheist noting Americans' beliefs about the nature of God | Pew Research Center

Carl Sagan always liked to respond to "Do you believe in God?" by asking what the questioner means by "God". He got responses like "Oh, you know, God. Everyone knows who God is." and "Well, kind of a force that is stronger than we are and that exists everywhere in the universe." (Broca's Brain, A Sunday Sermon)

Here is a table of the numbers. Abbreviations of columns:

• B = believe in God, higher power, or spiritual force
• G = believe in God as described in the Bible -- a "personal god"
• S = believe in other higher power / spiritual force -- an "impersonal god" or the Star Wars Force
• U = unclear
• N = do not believe in God or higher power of any kind
• X = unclear / refused

B is the sum of all those but N and X.
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Who[/td]
[td]B[/td]
[td]G[/td]
[td]S[/td]
[td]U[/td]
[td]N[/td]
[td]X[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]18-29[/td]
[td]83[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]39[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]16[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]30-49[/td]
[td]87[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]50-64[/td]
[td]96[/td]
[td]67[/td]
[td]28[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]65+[/td]
[td]92[/td]
[td]65[/td]
[td]26[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Coll grad[/td]
[td]84[/td]
[td]45[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Some coll[/td]
[td]90[/td]
[td]53[/td]
[td]36[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]HS or less[/td]
[td]94[/td]
[td]66[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]White Rep[/td]
[td]95[/td]
[td]72[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]NW Rep[/td]
[td]94[/td]
[td]60[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]NW Dem[/td]
[td]95[/td]
[td]61[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]White Dem[/td]
[td]78[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]45[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Unaffiliated[/td]
[td]72[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[td]53[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Atheist[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[td]0[/td]
[td]81[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Agnostic[/td]
[td]67[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]62[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]30[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]None[/td]
[td]90[/td]
[td]28[/td]
[td]60[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
Apostasy continues, with younger generations less likely to believe in a personal god than older ones. They are more likely to believe in an impersonal one, and that partially cancels out.

Increased education has declining belief, with the same personal-vs-impersonal trend.

White Republicans are the biggest believers, with nonwhite Republicans and Democrats being much alike. White Democrats are the smallest believers. The personal-vs-impersonal trend holds there also.

Religiously unaffiliated people and Nones ("Nothing in Particular") most often believe in an impersonal god, with some of them believing in a personal one. Agnostics are like that, though rarely believing in a personal god. Some 18% of atheists believe in an impersonal god, though none believe in a personal one. So an impersonal god may not seem much like a god to many people.

 

[lpetrich]

Protestants decline, more have no religion in a sharply shifting religious landscape (POLL) - ABC News
Percentages of Affiliations
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]What[/td]
[td]2003[/td]
[td]2017[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Wht Ev Prot[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Wht Non-Ev Prot[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]White Prot[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]24[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nonwht Prot[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Protestant[/td]
[td]50[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Catholic[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Other Xian[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Xian Total[/td]
[td]83[/td]
[td]72[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Other Relig[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]No Religion[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
It's mostly white people departing from Protestant sects. The percentage that claims affiliation:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Who[/td]
[td]2003[/td]
[td]2017[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Whites[/td]
[td]52[/td]
[td]39[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Hispanics[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Blacks[/td]
[td]64[/td]
[td]61[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
Half of Hispanics continue to consider themselves Catholics, something that has kept the overall fraction of Catholics steady. The fraction of non-Hispanic white Catholics declined only a little bit, from 22% in 2003 to 20% now.

Also, non-Hispanic whites have shrunk from 69% of the overall population in 2000 to 61% in 2016.

 

[lpetrich]

Protestants (P) vs. Nones (N):
[table="class: grid"]
[tr]
[td]Who [/td]
[td]P 2003[/td]
[td]P 2017[/td]
[td]P Diff[/td]
[td]N 2003[/td]
[td]N 2017[/td]
[td]N Diff[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]All[/td]
[td]50[/td]
[td]36[/td]
[td]-14[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]+9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Men[/td]
[td]47[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]-15[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]+11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Women[/td]
[td]53[/td]
[td]41[/td]
[td]-12[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]17[/td]
[td]+7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Age 18-29[/td]
[td]34[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]-12[/td]
[td]19[/td]
[td]35[/td]
[td]+16[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Age 50+[/td]
[td]63[/td]
[td]47[/td]
[td]-16[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]13[/td]
[td]+5[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Whites[/td]
[td]52[/td]
[td]39[/td]
[td]-13[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]+10[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Blacks[/td]
[td]64[/td]
[td]61[/td]
[td]-3[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]+4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Hispanics[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]-8[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]20[/td]
[td]+10[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Coll Grads[/td]
[td]46[/td]
[td]34[/td]
[td]-12[/td]
[td]15[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]+10[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Non CGs[/td]
[td]52[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]-14[/td]
[td]11[/td]
[td]20[/td]
[td]+9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Democrats[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]36[/td]
[td]-12[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]23[/td]
[td]+11[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Republicans[/td]
[td]60[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]-11[/td]
[td]6[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]+4[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Independents[/td]
[td]44[/td]
[td]31[/td]
[td]-13[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]+7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Liberals[/td]
[td]40[/td]
[td]25[/td]
[td]-15[/td]
[td]19[/td]
[td]35[/td]
[td]+16[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Moderates[/td]
[td]49[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[td]-12[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[td]+9[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Conservatives[/td]
[td]58[/td]
[td]44[/td]
[td]-14[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[td]12[/td]
[td]+4[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
So Hispanics are much like white gringos here.

In politics, Democrats are becoming Nones much faster than Republicans, with Independents in between. Likewise for liberals, conservatives, and moderates.

 

[lpetrich]

Now for political partisanship.[table="class: grid"]

[tr]
[td]Who[/td]
[td]Rep[/td]
[td]Ind[/td]
[td]Dem[/td]
[td]Con[/td]
[td]Mod[/td]
[td]Lib[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mormons[/td]
[td]53[/td]
[td]34[/td]
[td]9[/td]
[td]61[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[td]7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Evang Wht Prot[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]31[/td]
[td]14[/td]
[td]56[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]8[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Non-Evang WP[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]35[/td]
[td]28[/td]
[td]33[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]21[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]White Cath[/td]
[td]29[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[td]26[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]43[/td]
[td]18[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Jews[/td]
[td]16[/td]
[td]32[/td]
[td]48[/td]
[td]16[/td]
[td]41[/td]
[td]41[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Nones[/td]
[td]10[/td]
[td]45[/td]
[td]33[/td]
[td]19[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]39[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Muslims[/td]
[td]5[/td]
[td]27[/td]
[td]57[/td]
[td]22[/td]
[td]38[/td]
[td]37[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
Seems like three main categories. From most to least conservative:

• Mormons, Evangelical White Protestants
• Non-Evangelical White Protestants, White Catholics
• Jews, Nones, Muslims

As the share of Protestants has declined, the number of adults expressing no religious affiliation has risen from 12 percent in 2003 to 21 percent of all adults in 2017. That includes 3 percent who say they’re atheists, 3 percent agnostic and 15 percent who say they have no religion. The proportions were similar 15 years ago.

...
Results correspond with other research. The Public Religion Research Institute found that 24 percent of Americans identified as “atheist,” “agnostic” or “nothing in particular” in 2017, up from 14 percent in 2004. Similarly, in Gallup polls, 38 percent identify as Protestants, down from 49 percent in 2003, and 20 percent have no religious affiliation, up 10 percentage points.